Early 2020 Rookie Redraft Primer Part 3

In part 1 of this series, I looked at the top four incoming 2020 rookie quarterbacks. Then, in part 2, I looked at the top three rookie running backs. Now in part 3, it’s time to cover the remaining two top-5 running backs and the consensus top two receivers. None of these players are guarantees in redraft, but I expect each of them to make some impact in 2020. Even if that impact comes later in the season, it’s essential to become familiar with them now.

Cam Akers (RB – Florida St.)

Akers was a three-year starter at Florida State. He led the team in carries each year, recording 194, 161, and then 231 carries. However, he averaged just 4.9 yards per carry throughout his college career, far behind some of the other top running back prospects. Florida State suffered from severe offensive line issues during Akers’ tenure at running back. They ranked as a bottom-tier unit in all of FBS in 2018 and 2019. During all of 2019, FSU’s offensive line created a total of two yards for Akers. His lack of efficiency could, therefore, be due to his offensive line.

Akers provided consistent receiving production in college, going from 16 to 23 to 30 receptions in his three seasons. He also scored 14 rushing touchdowns and four receiving touchdowns in 2019. Therefore, he ended his college career with his strongest scoring season, leaving a good taste in NFL teams’ mouths.

At the NFL Combine, Akers ran a 4.47-second 40-yard dash. While that performance was impressive, he also performed well in the bench press with 20 reps. Additionally, he received rave reviews for his performance in the on-field and agility drills. NFL teams seemed enamored with Akers, and it looks like he will likely be the fourth running back taken after the three players mentioned in part 2 of this article.

I think Akers is likely to go in the third round of the NFL Draft. He can be a pass-catcher, goal-line back, or an early-down weapon. Unlike the previous running backs, Akers’ usage will be more dependent on his landing spot and the needs of that team. He will earn carries from day one and will undoubtedly be worth a draft selection in redraft. He will provide value if he can take over a backfield, though. He demonstrated the ability to be a workhorse back in college, so that high-end upside is there for Akers.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – LSU)

Unlike Akers, Edwards-Helaire has a clear role coming into the NFL. He played for three years at LSU, although he barely received any usage in 2017 behind Derrius Guice and Darrel Williams. In 2018, he played second fiddle to Nick Brossette, with 146 carries to Brossette’s 240. Edwards-Helaire turned those 140 carries into only 658 yards and seven touchdowns. That was good for just 4.5 YPC. He also had only 11 catches for 96 yards. After 2018, Edwards-Helaire was not on the radar of most devy analysts and was not a premium prospect.

However, in 2019, LSU completely revitalized their offense behind star quarterback Joe Burrow. Edwards-Helaire broke out, dominating the backfield touches. He led the team with 215 carries, with the next highest running back at just 64 carries. He turned those carries into 1,414 yards and 16 rushing touchdowns while averaging 6.6 yards per carry. Most impressive was the 55 receptions he garnered for 453 yards and a touchdown. For a college running back to have 55 receptions is nearly unheard of, especially one that also had 215 carries.

Based on his breakout season, some thought that Edwards-Helaire would challenge the top running backs in this loaded class. However, he slightly disappointed at the NFL Combine. He ran just a 4.6 in the 40-yard dash, a bit on the slow side for a running back. He also did only 15 reps on the bench press, third-lowest among running backs. On the other hand, he finished strongly in the broad and vertical jumps, so it was a mixed bag for Edwards-Helaire.

Given his combine performance and overall profile, I expect Edwards-Helaire to be the fifth running back selected, almost certainly in the third round. His receiving ability will get him on the field, but he has little chance to be a workhorse back as a rookie. Expect him to contribute in PPR leagues and to play mostly on third-down. Therefore, he will likely complement an incumbent early-down grinder. When considering Edwards-Helaire, the most critical factor will be how the quarterback and offensive scheme use pass-catching running backs. If they have a history of using such a player, then he could be a draft value, but if not, then he could disappoint. Just make sure to keep an eye on him throughout the draft season. 

CeeDee Lamb (WR – Oklahoma)

Moving away from running backs, there are two wide receivers that I believe can come in and immediately become the number one option on their team. Starting with Lamb, I think that he will be the first receiver drafted and will go in the top 15 picks. With that level of draft capital, he will at least have a shot at becoming the alpha receiver on his team from day one.

At Oklahoma, Lamb found wild success. He played three years with a series of star college quarterbacks: Baker Mayfield in 2017, Kyler Murray in 2018, and Jalen Hurts in 2019. In total, Lamb had 173 catches for 3,292 yards and 32 touchdowns. His 2019 performance solidified his status as the WR1 in this class, as he had 62 receptions for 1,327 yards and 14 touchdowns.

If there was any doubt about Lamb, he silenced those doubters at the NFL Combine. He only ran a 4.5 in the 40-yard dash, but he is not known for his blazing speed. His time exceeded expectations, though. However, his 11 reps on the bench were a slight disappointment along with his slightly under par vertical and broad jumps. Once he took the field for receiver drills, he demanded scouts’ attention once more with a highlight reel of plays. Given his positive reception, he is popular among the NFL community and thus will get solid draft capital.

For redraft purposes, though, I would still be somewhat wary of Lamb. Even though 2019 was an exception, rookie wide receivers don’t tend to produce much for fantasy football. Those that do often break out in the second half of the season, like A.J. Brown or Deebo Samuel did in 2019. Therefore, unless Lamb goes to a high-powered offense with a strong quarterback as the clear number one receiver, I will likely pass on him in redraft. Even in that case, he will likely be overhyped and rise up draft boards to a point that is probably too expensive for me.

Jerry Jeudy (WR – Alabama)

Coming into 2019, Jeudy was the clear WR1 for the 2020 draft class. However, Lamb’s stellar 2019 season moved him in front of Jeudy for most fantasy players and the NFL. With that said, Jeudy is still a solid wide receiver prospect. Jeudy did little in 2017 in his true freshman season with just 14 catches. However, he broke out in 2018 with a stellar performance, catching 68 balls for 1,315 yards and 14 touchdowns. Jeudy dominated every statistical category, leading the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. 

Jeudy slightly regressed in 2019. He caught more passes, with 77 receptions, but for only 1,163 yards and 10 touchdowns. Teammate Devonta Smith had more yards and touchdowns, although fewer catches. While Smith is a solid player, he is not in the same prospect tier as Jeudy. Therefore, the fact that Smith outperformed Jeudy in 2019 is at least a small red flag on Jeudy’s profile.

At the NFL Combine, Jeudy quelled some of the concerns surrounding him. He ran a solid 4.45 in the 40-yard dash and had mediocre performances in the vertical jump, broad jump, and short shuttle. Most importantly, he did well in interviews and his on-field receiving drills. Considering that most analysts saw Jeudy as a combine winner, it’s safe to say that Jeudy solidified his spot as the WR2 in the class and might still have an outside shot at being the WR1.

As for redraft, my recommendation for Jeudy is identical to mine for Lamb. If Jeudy goes to a situation where he is the number one receiver on a potent offense, I will look his way in redraft. But given his expected NFL Draft capital, I expect Jeudy to be overdrafted in redraft formats no matter his situation. I’ll probably avoid Jeudy in most drafts. 

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.