Dynasty Analysis
The NFL collectively held its breath and put forward a full slate of games less regularly scheduled bye weeks. Setting line-ups was only normally frustrating without several studs on both sides of the ball who were off for Week 6. Those leaving the field with injuries sustained in Week 6 include Steelers’ LB Devin Bush, who is lost for 2020 with a torn ACL, Panthers’ safety Juston Burris, Packers’ safety Darnell Savage, and two Eagles: DT Malik Jackson and safety K’Von Wallace. Sorry, Philly fans, I was not trolling you with the comment about injury regression!
Herbert has been nothing short of spectacular, averaging 21.8 fantasy points/game as the Chargers’ starting quarterback. In Week 5 against the Saints, Herbert threw for 264 yards and four touchdowns, finishing with 27.4 fantasy points on the week. Herbert also adds a bit of value with his legs, although he only averages 13.8 rushing yards/game. However, even a few rushing yards can make the difference at the quarterback positions, as QB scoring is tight outside of the top options. In Week 7, Herbert draws a dream matchup against the Jaguars’ porous defense. They’ve given up 30 or more points in every game since Week 1 in five straight losses. Opposing quarterbacks average two touchdowns, 274 passing yards, and a 106.8 passer rating versus the Jaguars. I expect Herbert to carve up the Jaguars in this game, and I have Herbert ranked as a borderline QB1 for the week.
This week and every week going forward we’ll bring you several recommendations for players you should add to your dynasty rosters. We’ll mainly be targeting lower-owned guys who should be available in all but the deepest leagues. Nobody is taking King Henry’s job in Tennessee but this year has proven you can’t have enough insurance, especially in a dynasty league. McNichols has looked good when given the opportunity. He currently averages over five yards per attempt. He’s a running back you can find on almost any dynasty waiver wire and I don’t want to wait for an injury in Tennessee to make this move.
Now looking at the late games, I will go through each game and discuss one dynasty-relevant storyline per team that I’m excited to see. This piece will give you something specific to look for in each contest, which I hope helps you enjoy the games even more. I’ve listed the home team first for each game. I won’t waste any more time, so let’s jump straight in!
As usual, I’m trying a different type of article this week. I will go through each of the early slate games and discuss one dynasty-relevant storyline per team that I’m excited to see. If I get a chance, I might look at the rest of the games in another article, but I wanted to start with only the first set. This piece will give you something specific to look for in each contest, which I hope helps you enjoy the games even more. I’ve listed the home team first for each game. I won’t waste any more time, so let’s jump straight in!
The Ravens drafted Waller in the sixth round of the 2015 NFL Draft as a wide receiver. Waller saw almost no playing time behind veterans Kamar Aiken, Steve Smith, and Chris Givens, and he eventually landed on injured reserve. After 2015, the Ravens decided to convert Waller into a tight end, hoping that he could provide a new element to their offense. However, Waller’s 2016 season got off to a bad start when the NFL suspended him for the first four games for violating the substance-abuse policy. He returned and played the remaining 12 games, but unfortunately, there were few opportunities in the Ravens’ offense. Veteran tight end Dennis Pitta led the Ravens in targets with 121, leaving only scraps for Waller. The Ravens also rarely deployed 2TE sets, preferring to use 11 or 21 personnel.
Welcome to part two of my weekly publication! As always, part one of this publication is my weekly picks against the spread, with a deep dive into three picks that I feel will provide a nice payout to bettors. In part two, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense. In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!
In a similar vein to last week’s Roethlisberger bet, I’m also taking the under on the Eagles’ Week 6 opponent. I won’t rehash my entire spiel but, basically, the Eagles have not let up many passing yards to their opponents this year. Moreover, Jackson hasn’t cleared this total since Week 1, and hasn’t thrown for over 200 passing yards since Week 2.
Week 5 of the NFL season has come and gone and we are now almost one-third of the way through the NFL regular season “shocked face”. As we approach this milestone in the season we are still learning a lot about the rookies each and every week. Some flash, some stumble, but what I aim to do here is help you make informed decisions based on their performances. Let’s begin, shall we?
Without the Chiefs, Seahawks, Cowboys, Cardinals, Bills, Saints, or Raiders on the main slate, we’ll have to get creative in Week 6. I’ll be breaking down all eleven matchups, sharing my thoughts on player prices* and stacking opportunities. As you read, please note that the player names in bold are what I consider my “core” players or guys that I’m sliding into a large percentage of my lineups. Oh, and if you’re new to DFS, you should check out my DFS Tips and Tricks article here.
*All player prices referenced are from FanDuel.
In this weekly article, I’m going to look ahead to the following week. I’ll point out a few players below 40% owned on ESPN who have strong matchups next week that you can pick up ahead of time to beat the waiver run. I’ll also try and get ahead of breakouts that could happen in the current week, as predicting breakouts is the best way to save your FAAB budget.
Mecole Hardman is 40.2% owned and just misses the 40% cut. But, with Sammy Watkins out, he’s an absolute must-add ahead of a potential Week 6 breakout.
On Tuesday, the Jets finally decided to part ways with star running back Le’Veon Bell. After trying and failing to find a trade partner, they released him. As Bell was a vested veteran, he was not subject to waivers, allowing him to sign with any NFL team. Bell did almost nothing for the Jets in 2020. He missed three games with a hamstring injury, but he did see playing time in two games. Bell totaled 19 carries for 74 yards, and he added three receptions for 39 yards. Considering the Jets’ poor offense, Bell scored no touchdowns, and he wasn’t a strong fantasy asset. I think everyone is pretty happy that Bell is out of New York.
The Packers drafted Williams out of BYU in the fourth round of the 2017 NFL Draft. At the time, they had recently moved on from the previous starter Eddie Lacy, and they had converted wide receiver Ty Montgomery as their nominal starting running back. The Packers also selected Aaron Jones in the fifth round of the same draft, creating a three-way competition at running back.
Sunday was a day on which fans experienced the uplifting hope of seeing the return of Alex Smith, only to feel the despair of losing Dak Prescott. The Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott dominated the headlines during the 2020 NFL Offseason, and they are going to do so again in 2021. The 1-3 Dallas Cowboys went into a Week 5 matchup with their division foes the New York Giants in must-win mode. During the third-quarter Prescott took a first-down quarterback draw as the Cowboys approached the Giants’ red zone. On this play he was tackled by Logan Ryan, as Ryan brought him down he rolled up under Prescott who suffered a compound fracture and dislocation to his right ankle. During the moment, other than thoughts and prayers for Prescott’s health the underlying fear was remembering Gordon Hayward’s similar and brutal injury in 2017.
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
You guys might be wondering why you’re hearing from me since I don’t typically do the start/sit article for DFF. Well, @fantasyfreezer is on vacation, so I’m filling in for him this week. I’ll try to keep the same format and bring you good start/sit advice for the week. I won’t discuss obvious starts or sits, but I’ll focus on borderline players where fantasy owners might have difficult decisions. With that said, let’s jump straight into it.
The Ravens’ defense did it again. This week, at home versus the Bengals, Baltimore dominated on defense from the opening snap. The unit produced seven sacks, two fumbles recovered, an interception, and a touchdown in the game. IDP players of note include Patrick Queen, Marcus Peters, Chuck Clark, Marlon Humphrey, and Pernell McPhee.
Are you ready for some… Tuesday? Night? Football? Hopefully, everything goes according to plan and the NFL can stop playing hot potato with the schedule. But as we’re in unprecedented territory, you should be more and more willing to deal your guys. Don’t get attached to your favorite freight train of a running back (looking at you, Derrick Henry!) because anything can happen this season. Luckily, you have us to help you out. Here are our favorite buys and sells for the week.
Welcome back to the battle of attrition we call fantasy football. We looked at a wide receiver last week, and it is time to jump back in with maybe one of the most hated wide receivers of the last couple of seasons. None other than Nelson Agholor, who has made a new home in Las Vegas with the Raiders this season. After you stop laughing, he has been a revelation for this offense and someone that the Raiders have been able to depend upon.
Every week, I’m going to break down an entire division, focusing on their play on the field that week. Specifically, I’ll go through each team and focus on their dynasty assets, especially anybody who suffered injuries or a massive value change. I won’t look at any player or team in too much detail. This article is more of a summary piece. I also included links to all my previous divisional nuggets articles at the bottom of the page. With that said, let’s jump right in!
The Bills look like they have a solid fantasy core for the foreseeable future with Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Zack Moss and Devin Singletary in the backfield. Despite the backfield being split, the Bills are “The Good” in my eyes due to their potential top ten QB and WR pair that should be on quite a few championship rosters this year.
For those of you checking us out for the first time, I’m @DFF_Biscuits. My role at Dynasty Football Factory is to embrace our inner degenerate by covering all things sportsbook related. Each week I’ll be writing two pieces; one will be my weekly picks against the spread. The second article will focus on specific player props. For the ATS (against the spread) articles, I will provide analysis on three bets that I feel have the best chance at getting you a nice payday. Whether it be due to matchups, injuries, or other factors, these are the three bets I feel the most confident in placing. I will also make predictions on the rest of the week’s spreads.
This weekly article is focused on identifying players who are owned in less than 40% of redraft leagues. These players are going to help your team win this week and every week to come! We are looking for guys you should be able to plug into your starting lineup without hesitation.
This one is mainly for the SuperFlex and 2QB leagues but Andy Dalton may even be relevant in your single QB leagues. Dak Prescott suffered a gruesome ankle injury, ending his promising season. Dalton wasn’t bad, completing nine of eleven attempts after Prescott went out. He has every weapon he could ask for as a backup quarterback in the NFL and should produce well in Dak’s place.
Has there ever been a more difficult week in which to set line-ups for fantasy football? The sheer number of players entering the weekend with a “questionable” injury designation coupled with the threat of game postponements challenged roster depth or triggered a flurry of transactions Sunday morning. Some fantasy gamers and writers assign blame to the uncertainty and question the skill involved in assembling a competitive line-up under such conditions. Your writer feels that gamers who understand the depth of options on the waiver wire and the back end of other teams’ rosters earns an advantage over the competition. The “next man up” came through for huge stat lines in several spots around the league in Week 5. This column aims to assist gamers in pursuit of additions with lasting value. In this season of uncertainty, burning through FAAB to chase points is a cardinal sin.
In this streaming article, I will provide you the best weekly options to stream quarterback, tight end, and D/ST. In each section, I’ll break down two streamers in detail, both of which will be under 50% owned, according to ESPN’s ownership percentage at the time of writing. Playing the matchups is a crucial feature of redraft fantasy football, and especially in a crazy 2020 season, active fantasy owners will have a massive advantage. This week, the NFL made a bunch of schedule changes which, of course, changes my streaming recommendations. The Chargers now have a Week 6 bye, whereas before, they had a game against the Jets. Of course, I liked the Chargers’ options in that game, but they’re now unavailable.
I’m also assuming there will be no further schedule changes and that the NFL sticks to the schedule referenced in that link. Make sure to check your league’s waiver timing, as that may have changed with a Tuesday game this week. With all that out of the way, let’s jump into the streamers.
This week and every week going forward we’ll bring you several recommendations for players you should add to your dynasty rosters. We’ll mainly be targeting lower-owned guys who should be available in all but the deepest leagues.
Fells has received at least two targets in each game through five weeks, which may not seem like much, but he’s also averaging 15 yards per reception this year. He has two touchdowns and is tied for second on the team in red zone targets. Fells isn’t a high volume option but provides upside with the touchdown opportunity in deeper leagues.