As we approach the redraft season, I want to begin a new series of recent risers and fallers based on events happening in the fantasy football world. In each article, I’ll give you two risers and two fallers. There are many reasons that a player could move up or move down, so I’ll cover various situations throughout this article series. I’ll also include the previous entries at the bottom of this page.
Risers
Throughout the offseason, I’ve believed that Melvin Gordon would take on a workhorse role in the Broncos’ backfield. Therefore, I thought that Lindsay would pick up scraps behind Gordon and wouldn’t have much fantasy relevance. However, in Broncos’ camp, Gordon has struggled with various injuries while Lindsay has looked explosive.
Lindsay is an excellent running back in his own right, as he rushed for 1,000 yards in both of his two seasons. He came into the NFL as an undrafted free agent and took the Broncos’ starting job immediately as a rookie, pushing aside third-round pick Royce Freeman. Lindsay had 5.4 and 4.5 YPC in his two seasons, while Gordon averaged under 4.0 YPC in four of his five seasons.
In my Broncos’ redraft preview, I had Gordon as my RB17 and Lindsay at RB35. Ironically, I have raised Gordon to RB16 and kept Lindsay at RB35. But, that doesn’t tell the full story. Gordon has fallen in my overall rankings to 37th overall, as I continue to move high-end wide receivers ahead of him. On the other hand, I’ve moved Lindsay up a tier among running backs, which has moved him up about 10 total spots to 81st overall.
In that range, I expect Lindsay to be a viable flex player alongside options like James White and Jordan Howard. While Lindsay should provide flex value, Gordon has also struggled with injuries throughout his career. If Gordon misses time, I think Lindsay can become a high-end RB2 in the Broncos’ run-heavy offense. Near the end of last season, the Broncos went away from Royce Freeman in favor of Lindsay. So, Lindsay should dominate touches if Gordon is out. For those reasons, I love drafting Lindsay in 2020.
Williams is a riser for a straightforward reason: he seems to be 100% healthy for the 2020 season. As most know, Williams tore his ACL in Week 8 of the 2019 season, cutting short his breakout season. At the time, Williams and DeVante Parker shared the Dolphins’ top receiver role, with both having almost equal targets, receptions, and fantasy production.
Going into 2020, the Dolphins added no significant receivers and depth receivers Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19 concerns. Therefore, Williams is 100% locked-in as an essential option for the Dolphins. Williams has also impressed throughout training camp and seems to have chemistry with potential starters Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tua Tagovailoa.
In my June Dolphins’ preview, I had Preston Williams as my WR52, but I saw him as a dart throw. Now, he’s my WR51, but I’ve moved him up a tier among wide receivers. He’s now my 122nd overall player, so I somewhat expect him to make an early impact for my fantasy team. I like drafting Williams as a WR4 or WR5 in 2020.
Fallers
Of all the risers and fallers I’ve covered so far, Montgomery might be the simplest. He suffered a groin injury a few days ago that threatens to keep him out for two to four weeks. While his injury isn’t as severe as first thought, I expect him to miss Week 1 and probably 2-3 games.
The Bears have scatback Tarik Cohen on their depth chart, but they have few proven assets behind him. Their other running backs include Ryan Nall, Artavis Pierce, and converted wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson, none of whom inspire confidence. If Montgomery doesn’t have a miracle recovery, I believe the Bears will add a veteran running back to their room, possibly Devonta Freeman. If they do, that move will lighten Montgomery’s carry load as he returns from injury, reducing his fantasy value.
I always recommend fading injured players in redraft leagues, as the injury dip often isn’t enticing enough for me to buy-in. Before the injury, I ranked Montgomery as my RB23 and 43rd overall player, but he’s now my RB29 and 67th overall. I prefer to draft healthy players, so for that reason alone, I won’t have any shares of Montgomery in redraft leagues in 2020.
Gronkowski has dropped in my rankings for a very different reason from Montgomery. Gronkowski seems to be fully healthy, but I have some doubts about him that have changed during the offseason. In April, Gronkowski came out of retirement, and the Patriots traded him to the Buccaneers for a fourth-round pick. I hadn’t finalized my redraft rankings at the time, but I expected the Buccaneers to use Gronkowski heavily, and I ranked him as my TE9.
Then, I held my stance during my Bucs’ redraft preview. I continued to rank Gronkowski as my TE9. I emphasized that he finished as the TE11 in 2018 during an injury-riddled season and that Gronkowski would shine in 2020 playing alongside Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Gronkowski seemed to present high-end upside, even at 31 years old.
However, during Buccaneers’ training camp, things have changed. The Buccaneers have continued to deploy both O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate consistently on the field, with Howard receiving specific praise from Bruce Arians. Gronkowski does play a red-zone role, but Howard seems to be the Buccaneers’ every-down tight end.
Therefore, I don’t see the same high-end upside from Gronkowski that I imagined earlier on. I believe Gronkowski will help the Buccaneers’ real-life offense both as a blocker and in the red zone, but he won’t be a consistent fantasy producer. I’m not saying that Howard will take Gronkowski’s spot, more just that Godwin and Evans will dominate targets leaving all tight ends irrelevant.
Gronkowski is now my TE14, a tier down from where I previously ranked him. He’s only a streamer for me in 2020. Given his hype and name recognition, he won’t be on any of my 2020 rosters.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
