Dynasty Analysis
Well, it happened. Eagles rookie wide receiver DeVonta Smith left practice on Monday with an apparent knee injury. Smith had an MRI which helped diagnose him with a sprained MCL in his knee. According to reports, the injury is considered minor and he is only supposed to be out “a couple of weeks” per Ian Rapoport.
When entering a fantasy draft, the first thing I do to plan out my strategy is to look at the league settings. In this draft, there were a lot of irregular rules, like getting points for rushing attempts and first downs, but none of that changed how I evaluated those players. Two rule changes caught my eye as having the biggest impact on weekly scoring. The first is how points are scored for quarterbacks. Instead of the typical four-point passing touchdowns and negative two points for throwing an interception, passing touchdowns are worth six and interceptions take three points away. The next rule change has to do with team defenses. Typically, my strategy is to stream defenses all year long. But in this league, there is a huge bump for allowing low point totals, and there are event points for tackles for loss, QB hits and passes defended.
Hey #DFFArmy, it’s your Director of Information Systems, @DFF_JoeMem, back again with a rankings update! As we enter into August, we are bringing back Redraft into focus. You’ll find those rankings HERE. Look closely and you’ll see that we were able to add Sleeper’s Redraft PPR ADP to our ranking page! For now, it’s only alongside our Redraft rankings, and we believe this will add a lot of value to the #DFFArmy on the road to some Championships. So we have Sleeper ADP, truly the voice of the people, but what about the rankers themselves? Who are the people you’ll be trusting your drafts with? Let’s find out!
Picking out of the one spot is easy this year in regards to who to take #1 overall, but the strategy following that pick can vary greatly. Below is my thought process as I drafted one of my favorite teams thus far during this off-season. Let me know what you think!
Nick Chubb is the most recent star running back to get a big extension. While the contract does not make him the highest-paid running back in the NFL, it still puts him in the top ten. So what does this new contract mean for Chubb, the future of the Browns, and some of their star players? Let’s dive in.
For this NFL season, a collection of 14 DFF analysts took their talents to a new Redraft league. As the analyst with the 14th pick, I knew it would be an uphill climb to add value. Despite this being a redraft league, I decided to go with my favorite dynasty strategy, the zero-RB. Knowing that this is a 14-team league, we had to adjust compared to the standard 12-team leagues in which elite positional players hold even more of a premium.
Beware of the Ides of March, the date March 15th was viewed by the Ancient Romans as a deadline for settling debts. The year was 44 BC and the Soothsayers informed the Dictator that their readings indicated death. A soothsayer is a minor priest also known as a haruspex, otherwise known for practicing animal sacrifice and reading the remnants of the body for signs from their deities. The practice of animal sacrifice is very similar to us fantasy players praying to the fantasy gods for a player they roster to get put back in for the goal line work as they fret a close competition. Back in Ancient Rome, the dictators and government generals would often consult with the Soothsayers regarding future war campaigns.
Having a consistently high floor allows for a better chance to make the playoffs. But the title of this series is not how to make the playoffs. Our goal is to win. Assuming you read Part 1 of this series, you know that our plan in rounds 3-6 is to go after high upside wide receivers. This doesn’t mean that we are neglecting other positions and only looking at wide receivers, but the value here is tremendous. This is also why solidifying the running back position is so important to do early. It now allows us to chase value in these rounds.
Robert Woods has been one of the more consistent fantasy players these last few years. Yet, even with his steady production, it appears he always flies under the radar, and down the draft board. For whatever the reason may be, Woods has been vastly underrated by the fantasy community after proving year in and year out that he can put up solid numbers and boost a starting lineup. This article will dive into the numbers and look at the situation surrounding Woods, making the case for him to be a WR1 this season.
Welcome, #DFFArmy to Dynasty Football Factory’s Redraft season kickoff! This year looks to be even more competitive than last year as we added two teams to the league, bringing the total number to 14. Not only did we grow the league size, but we expanded rosters by adding a flex position as well, which makes hitting in the mid to late rounds even more important than normal.
This week I drafted an 18-man roster in a 14-team 0.5 PPR staff redraft league for @DFF_Fantasy. It is also TE Premium, where they get a full 1.0 PPR. There are 11 starting positions, QB/2RB/2WR/TE/3FLEX/K/DEFplus seven bench spots. There are also bonus points for converted first downs, both on receptions and in the running game.
The player I can’t leave my draft without is Zach Cunningham. While a bit of an obvious choice, I want to make sure everyone is aware of who he is and the situation that surrounds him. I want to start off and preface that it is nearly impossible to predict fumbles, interceptions, and touchdowns. This is where a lot of the big points in IDP leagues come from. What’s one thing that is predictable? Tackles. This is precisely why there is an emphasis on getting a good linebacker for your team.
Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. The NFC North is the eighth and final divisional breakdown. Check out other breakdowns by clicking on each respective division (AFC North, NFC West, AFC West, NFC South, AFC South, NFC East, AFC East) here at DFF. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division. Enjoy.
How much is a dynasty roster spot worth? Or how much should it be worth? Has anyone really tried to come up with a quantitative measure that can be actionable in some way when we are managing our dynasty rosters? We have trade calculators, rankings, projections, all customizable by league settings (for the most part). But roster spots are largely ignored. When a trade is made that involves a two-for-one player exchange, a roster spot has been cleared for one owner. Or perhaps two spots in a three-for-one, although those kinds of deals are rarer.
This past weekend, I had the pleasure of drafting against a number of my colleagues for our 14-team staff league, cleverly named the “DFF Redraft Championship.” The draft was a ton of fun, and I can already tell the competition is going to be stiff. For some additional context, our starting lineups consist of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 3 W/R/T, 1 K, and 1 DEF. Passing TDs are worth 6 points, while rushing and receiving first downs are worth 0.5 points. There is also a 0.1 point per carry bonus and a 0.5 TE reception bonus. In this article, I’ll be breaking down the thought process behind each of my picks.
Last weekend DFF organized a 14 team redraft league comprised solely of DFF writers/editors as owners. In this piece, I will talk about how I prepared for the draft, got my strategy together, and actually navigated the live draft. Hopefully, this will give you some insight on not only the players I took but also the methods I used to prepare.
Volume is king in fantasy football. This could finally be the year where we see Mixon’s volume skyrocket. The Cincinnati Bengals are without their notorious touch-stealing threat, Giovani Bernard. This means all the third down work, all the goal line touches, and everything in between for Mixon. This is the first time he’ll have this opportunity in his career. From 2017 (Mixon’s rookie year) through 2019 (not including 2020 where he only played in six games), Mixon has averaged 290 receiving yards and 36 receptions on 45 targets per season. Meanwhile, in that span, Bernard averaged 280 receiving yards and 36 receptions on 50 targets per season. You take Bernard out of the equation and Mixon’s numbers essentially double. Mixon is easily looking at 300 total touches this season.
As @DFF_Joemem mentioned in his rapid reaction article, we got the news that Michael Thomas underwent a second ankle surgery in June and likely won’t be ready to go to start the NFL season for the New Orleans Saints. This would be his second ankle surgery of the off-season as he already had surgery in January following the NFL season after sustaining a high-ankle sprain in Week 1 of the 2020 season. The above is what we know for certain. What we don’t know is what exactly transpired this off-season, what exact surgeries Thomas had, and why he waited so long to have his surgery, putting his 2021 season in serious doubt. But, we can begin to put together a rough outline given his injury timeline that can help fantasy owners decide what to do with Thomas for both redraft and dynasty.
SuperFlex (SF) formats have become more and more popular over the last couple of years. In the FFPC Dynasty world, 42% of all startups in 2021 have been SF. This was the going rate back in 2020 as well. Before 2020, SF only made up about 11% of the total number of dynasty leagues on their site. Now it is closer to 26% and rising. I fell in love with this format and hold 19 FFPC SF dynasty squads.
Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. We have just two divisions remaining, and this week’s coverage will focus on the AFC North. Check out the breakdowns for the: NFC West, AFC East, NFC East, AFC South, NFC South, and the AFC West divisions here at DFF as well, with the NFC North to follow soon. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division.
It happens every year. Players get hyped during the offseason, and lofty expectations are set for them that coming season. Inevitably, several players will fail to meet those expectations and their value will fall, and leave a sour taste in your mouth. However, as a savvy fantasy player, you can use this to your advantage to identify undervalued players. Not every player who has failed to meet expectations will rebound, but if you put some thought into it, you can identify the ones that have a strong case for a bounce back.
Thomas injured his ankle twice during the regular season last year and was expected to undergo surgery on it as early as January of 2021. Unfortunately for his team, it looks like now he won’t be looking 100% until we hit the ⅓ mark of the season. The Saints schedule has a bye Week 6 before they head into a Monday Night Football matchup against the division-rival Seahawks in Week 7. Given the expected timeline, it’s hard for me to imagine the Saints rushing him back there for the week 5 game against WFT at about the 3 to 3.5-month mark given the uncertainty of when the surgery actually occurred in June. Expecting a push for a Week 7 return makes the most sense when projecting this early on.
Derrick Henry is the starting running back for the Tennessee Titans, and he may be the most polarizing single player in fantasy football right now. The 27-year-old, sixth-year back out of Alabama is currently being valued by some as an elite fantasy running back, but many others are selling now projecting his market value to plummet due to his age. The Titans have Henry under contract through the 2023 season for approximately $12M per year. However, the Titans do have a potential out following the 2021 season where they would take on only a $6M dead cap hit that they may prorate over two seasons. The Titans had considerable offensive gains when they A) enabled Arthur Smith to call plays for the offensive unit, B) named Ryan Tannehill as the starting quarterback, and C) drafted A.J. Brown to become the new Alpha wide receiver.
To get a general idea of who Corey Davis is, he was an Upside prospect out of Western Michigan. Coming into the league at 6 feet 2.8 inches, 209 pounds, and a 26.3 BMI, he qualified as an Alpha. Which is a solid start to a profile, a prospect with potential upside and Alpha size. Unfortunately for Davis, he was selected by a team that deployed a low passing volume. Which played a big part in consensus not being high on him after his rookie season where he posted 375 receiving yards on 65 targets. But the raw numbers don’t do him justice. He owned a 19.1% target share is quite impressive. To get an idea of what Corey Davis’s first season told us, here is the fellow Upside Alpha’s who posted a target share within 3% of Corey Davis’ 19.1%.
The NFL season is almost upon us with less than two weeks left until Training Camps. The time to pilfer the waiver wire for any free talent before they gain value from camp buzz is right now. Some known commodities might make a splash, but owners are hoping to cash in on the next James Robinson or Phillip Lindsay to win now or trade while their value is high. We’ll look at team depth charts and scouting reports to highlight six rookies that are either going undrafted in rookie drafts or can be bought during late rounds of startups.