Dynasty Analysis
Harris was selected with the 183-overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft by the New England Patriots. And this is terrible for his fantasy prospects. He was the second RB drafted by a team that already employs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. So, at best Harris is RB4 on the depth chart and not a guy I have much interest in until very late in fantasy drafts. In the early fifth round he could be a fine pick. But seeing where his value shakes out will be important. I do like to bet on talent over situation and I believe Harris is talented. But this combination of poor draft capital and terrible landing spot has dropped him far out of my top 10 RBs for this class.
Although he fell fall down in the draft, Melton still has a chance at competing for the WR3 spot behind Metcalf and Lockett. Because of his situation, he’s a considerable candidate to get on the mid-to-late rounds in dynasty start-up leagues. If one of the two above him on the depth chart suffers a significant injury before the season starts, you may want to give Melton a look in redraft leagues as well.
As a true freshman, Christian Harris was named to the SEC All-Freshman Team, starting 12 of 13 appearances (63 tackles, 7.5 for loss). Harris played through a shoulder injury during the Crimson Tide’s run to the 2020 national championship, making 79 tackles, seven TFLs, 4.5 sacks, and one INT. He started all 15 games of the 2021 season, again making 79 stops, 12.5 TFLs, and 5.5 sacks. He also recorded three pass breakups and two forced fumbles. Harris has shown reliability and toughness throughout his collegiate career.
Jaquan Brisker should leapfrog all the safeties taken ahead of him except Kyle Hamilton in rookie safety ranks. His only competition to start alongside rangy Eddie Jackson is a career back-up, Deandre Houston Carson. Better yet, the Bears have a new defensive coordinator in Alan Williams, most recently the Colts’ defensive backs coach. He and Matt Eberflus, the 2021 Colts defensive coordinator and 2022 Bears head coach, demonstrated a preference for a disparity in deployment between safeties. Julian Blackmon played the vast majority of his snaps deep while Khari Willis more frequently played closer to the line of scrimmage. The veteran Jackson can reasonably expect to be relied upon in a single-high role more often than the rookie Brisker. Brisker’s toughness in the box compares favorably with that of Jackson.
Kyren Williams should serve as the RB3/4 for his new team. With injuries haunting Akers and Henderson Jr. early on in their careers, Williams may find himself on the field early in his Rams tenure. He’s worth a late-round selection in dynasty start-up leagues, and he may be worth snagging late in your rookie drafts. Nonetheless, he’s a depth selection with high upside.
Shakir is a talented wide receiver that can carve himself a role in the NFL. The Bills have a very talented wide receiver room already with Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, and Jamison Crowder. It will be very difficult for Shakir to find meaningful snaps and I would probably be avoiding him in all fantasy formats other than deeper dynasty leagues. I expect him to go somewhere in the late third or later of rookie drafts.
With Jerrion Ealy on the same team as him, Conner only started two career games at Ole Miss. He did play in every game for the Rebels during the last three seasons, serving as Ealy’s backup and the team’s primary short-yardage back. He produced a combined 1,580 rushing yards in his three collegiate seasons on 304 attempts (5.2 yards per attempt). His 26 career rushing touchdowns land him third all-time in Mississippi University’s history.
After redshirting the 2018 season, Philips set a UCLA freshman record with 60 receptions in 2019. He also poured in 681 receiving yards and five touchdowns. He took a bit of a step back in 2020 but bounced back for a first-team All-Pac-12 Conference season in 2021. He led the Bruins with 59 receptions for 739 yards and 10 touchdowns. Philips ended his collegiate career fourth all-time in UCLA football’s history with 163 career receptions.
Anderson joins a thin LB corps in Atlanta and a group of players that have struggled in the NFL. Deion Jones was once considered a rising star, but 2022 is likely his last chance to avoid the fate of an NFL journeyman. The other starter is likely Rashaan Evans, a former first-rounder that couldn’t earn a second contract in Tennessee. The presumptive third linebacker, Mykal Walker, hasn’t gained any traction. Anderson might not seem ready to overtake any of them this summer. Besides, the Falcons’ 2021 second-rounder, safety Richie Grant, couldn’t earn a significant role as a rookie. Anderson, however, has succeeded at everything he’s tried and is a far superior athlete to any of his aforementioned teammates.
Howell will need to sit and learn behind Carson Wentz before he gets a chance to become fantasy relevant. The Washington brass has given their public endorsement to Wentz as being a long-term answer for the club, but we all know anything can happen in the NFL. Howell was once considered the #1 QB prospect coming into the 2021 season, and for a time that summer was the odds on favorite to go #1 overall. His 2021 season was not as good as 2020 but he did show his ability to create with his legs and could be a sneaky good value for both the Commanders and fantasy owners.
Nakobe Dean came in and produced as a true freshman at Georgia, earning the team’s Co-Defensive Newcomer of the Year Award (25 tackles, 1.5 for loss, two pass breakups). He led the Bulldogs with 71 tackles (1.5 sacks) in his first season as a full-time starter as a sophomore. Dean played through a torn labrum in his shoulder that season. In 2021, Dean was a first-team Associated Press All-American and All-SEC selection after recording 72 tackles, a team-high 10.5 for loss with six sacks, two interceptions (one returned for a TD), six pass breakups, and two forced fumbles in 15 starts for the national champions.
TYLER ALLGEIER | BYU 5’11” 224 lbs. | 04/15/2000 (Age 22) Tyler Allgeier was drafted 151st overall by the Atlanta Falcons, becoming the 12th running back selected in the 2022 NFL Draft. COLLEGE PRODUCTION Tyler Allgeier was an elite producer in college and smashed nearly every threshold that I look at in my rookie model. […]
Austin III walked on the Memphis football team as a track star. He didn’t pop until the 2020 season, when he produced 63 receptions for 1,053 yards. He also hauled in the sixth-most touchdown receptions in all FBS with 11. Austin III returned a punt for a touchdown that season as well. He followed the impressive 2020 season with another 1,000-plus yard campaign. In 12 games played, the speedy receiver hauled in 74 receptions for 1,149 yards and eight touchdowns. He finished fourth in the ACC with a 22.3 percent deep-target rate, earning first-team all-conference notice.
Green Bay has now drafted two wide receivers for Aaron Rodgers within the first four rounds. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs could both compete for fantasy-relevant roles in year one, despite the day three draft capital for Doubs. In this analyst’s opinion, fourth-round picks are more similar to third-round picks than they are to fifth or sixth-rounders. Targets are earned and the Packers have plenty of targets to earn. I would also point out that Watson comes with perhaps more question marks than Doubs in terms of his talent. It is not outside the realm of reasonable outcomes that Doubs could emerge as the main receiving target in this offense. There may be room for both if not.
At the NFL combine, Likely measured in at 6’4 ½” and 245 lbs. Which equates to a BMI of 29.4. The only two drills he participated in at the combine were the vertical jump (36”) and the 20-yard shuttle (4.57). At his Pro Day, he ran a 4.88 40-yard dash (24th percentile), which at his height and weight equates to an 87.1-speed score (17th percentile). Likely also recorded a 124.5 burst score (85th percentile) and a college dominator of 31.4 percent (90th percentile).
Haskins did play in 2018 but redshirted after only playing in three games as a special teams player. He received the team’s Most Improved Player Award after producing 622 rushing yards and six touchdowns during the 2019 season. In a limited role in 2020, he managed to lead the team in rushing (375) with only two starts in six games. He finally served as the team’s workhorse in 2021, and it proved him and his team well. On 270 carries, Haskins turned in 1,327 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns. He also hauled in 18 receptions for 131 yards as well. His 20 rushing scores were the fourth-most in all of FBS in 2021 and tied for the third-most in a Michigan Wolverine season.
Strong was one of my favorite rookie RBs coming into this draft, and I was hoping he would sneak into day 2. Going in the fourth round isn’t terrible as draft capital is concerned. There may be sneaky good upside with a Patriots team that has a strong commitment to the run game. It is obviously a crowded backfield, however, with Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson seemingly entrenched. There had been rumors earlier in the offseason about trading Harris, but that never happened. Strong will get a chance to compete, however, and it is well within the range of outcomes for him to rise to the top of the pecking order. I would expect this to keep him in the third round of most rookie drafts, with some owners reaching for him in the second. It is hard to see any redraft or best ball value at this time, and I am forced to lower my rankings for both Harris and Stevenson, the latter of which bums me out a bit.
Here is why Daniel Bellinger is such an intriguing prospect. It is well documented that size/speed athletes translate to the tight end position in the NFL well. Bellinger has this in spades. He recorded a 9.66 relative athletic score out of at 6’4, 253 lbs. He ran a 4.63 40-yard dash with an excellent three-cone time of 7.05. His vertical was 34.5 inches.
After growing up with NBA star Trae Young, Kolar took his talents to Iowa State after never receiving an offer from Oklahoma. He made an immediate impact after redshirting his freshman season in 2017. He hauled in 11 receptions for 137 yards and three touchdowns during his 2018 campaign. During the next three seasons, he earned many awards and accolades. Most notable were first-team All-Big 12 honors, serving as a Mackey Award finalist in 2020 and 2021, and winning the William V. Trophy (Academic Heisman). In that same span, Kolar appeared in 26 games, hauled in 157 receptions, and snagged 20 receiving touchdowns. He finishes fourth all-time in Iowa State football’s history in both career receptions (fourth) and career receiving yards (2,181), while also landing third in career touchdown receptions (23).
After redshirting the 2018 season, Ezukanma led the Red Raiders in receiving three years in a row. He accumulated 136 receptions for 2,117 yards and 14 touchdowns in those three seasons in 32 games played. He became the first Texas Tech receiver to earn first-team All-Big 12 since Michael Crabtree (2008). He also lands 15th on the all-time receiving yards record in school history.
Isaiah Spiller put together three productive (and nearly identical) seasons at Texas A&M. He took over the backfield as a freshman, pacing the team with 946 rushing yards and 10 TDs. He also added an impressive 29 receptions for 203 receiving yards. Despite the addition of track star Devon Achane to the Aggies’ backfield, Spiller’s 2020 season was essentially a rerun of 2019: 1,036 rushing yards, nine TDs, 20 receptions, 193 receiving yards. In 2021, Spiller’s junior season, Achane captured a larger percentage of the RB opportunities. However, with rushing QB Kellen Mond out of the picture, there was more work to go around. Spiller was able to crack 1,000 rushing yards once again while adding another 25 receptions.
Zamir White was the number one RB in his class coming out of high school and a top-ten national recruit. “Zeus” had torn an ACL late in his senior season, however, and then tore his other ACL in August 2018, which caused him to redshirt the fall. White returned for the 2019 season and earned the school’s David Jacobs Award for overcoming injury by playing in 13 games and rushing 78 times for 408 yards and three TDs. White started all 10 games in 2020, leading the Bulldogs with 779 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on 144 carries. He also caught six passes for 37 yards. In 2021, White led the national champions with 856 rushing yards and 11 scores on 160 carries while catching nine passes for 75 yards in 15 games (12 starts).
Walker was a four-star recruit from Cordele, Georgia, and ESPN’s second-ranked recruit at his position. He opted to play for his home-state team, the Georgia Bulldogs, where he took time to develop and emerge. After three years in Athens as a rotational piece, he established himself as a starter for UGa’s 2022 national championship defense. He started all 15 games, collecting 67 tackles including 5.5 for loss and 1.5 QB sacks along with three passes defensed and a fumble recovery.
In his true freshman season, Tyrion Davis-Price contributed for the 2019 national champion Tigers, scoring six touchdowns on the ground on 64 carries for 295 yards in a reserve role. The former top-10 running back recruit led LSU with 446 rushing yards on 104 carries (8 for 47 receiving in nine games, four starts). TDP again led the Tigers with 1,003 yards and six scores rushing on 211 carries in 2021. He caught 10 passes for 64 yards as well over his 12 starts.
Pierce has a shot at competing for the RB1 spot for this team. He may start the season as an RB2/3, but there isn’t a clear-cut lead back for this team. He’s worth targeting in the middle rounds in both rookie and dynasty start-up leagues. He’s also a candidate to see some volume as a pass-catcher out of this backfield as well. It may take him a season to get rolling, but his red zone volume should be on notice early on in his career.