Dynasty Analysis
After two seasons as the understudy at Auburn University, Willis made the best decision of his career and transferred to Liberty. He then took off and combined for 5,107 passing yards, 47 passing touchdowns, 1,822 rushing yards, and 27 rushing touchdowns in 23 games played. Willis has all the tools and upside in the world to become a solid starting quarterback in the NFL eventually. He isn’t a guaranteed product, but his ceiling is higher than any other signal-callers in this year’s draft. Willis showcases a rare combination of a strong arm and elite rushing abilities. In today’s NFL, that’s exactly what teams are looking for.
Mafe was a three-star recruit from Hopkins, Minnesota who opted to play for his home-state team, the Golden Gophers. The redshirt senior took time to develop and emerge at the University of Minnesota despite an athletic profile extraordinary in the Twin Cities. He started 13 of a possible 19 games in his last two seasons according to The Football Database, collecting 61 tackles including 15.5 for loss and 11.5 QB sacks.
Ridder has seen a sharp rise in dynasty SuperFlex ADP ever since his strong combine showing. I have done three FFPC SF startup drafts in the last two months and took him in the 20th round in one and the 9th in the most recent. I was expecting him to go in the first round and the dramatic fall of QBs in this draft does not make me feel great about the draft capital here. That said, if Ridder can learn behind Mariota, the sky could be the limit with Kyle Pitts and Drake London as cornerstone offensive weapons to play with in year two and beyond. I think this largely torpedoed Ridder’s redraft and best-ball value, but as only the second QB off the board, Ridder has a chance to become an incredible value play for both the Falcons and dynasty players. I expect him to go somewhere in the mid to late first round of SuperFlex drafts and for him to present an intriguing value in single-QB leagues somewhere in the late second to mid-third of rookie drafts.
John Metchie III is an early-declare WR that just dominated the SEC and is coming off of injury. Metchie III was good enough to start alongside fellow Alabama alumni and first-round picks Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith in 2020. This past season, Metchie was relied upon to be Bryce Young’s go-to receiver, a role he was effective in until teammate Jameson Williams began to blossom and he shared the load. Like Williams, Metchie also went down with an unfortunate ACL injury at the end of the season, just two games before Jameson did.
Woods came into college as a quarterback but quickly shifted to tight end early on at Oklahoma State. Although his production wasn’t anything to be amazed by, Woods was voted honorable mention all-conference, as he hauled in seven receptions for 120 yards and two touchdowns in six games played. He earned the same accolades in 2019 and 2020 as a tight end with little productions. After his Junior season, the big-bodied tight end transferred to Virginia for his senior season. That turned into a wise move, as he set career highs with 44 receptions for 598 yards in 11 games played. He earned first-team All-ACC honors and finished tied for ninth in the school’s history with eight touchdown receptions in a single season.
During his four years at USC, Jones Jr. showed flashes as a return specialist and saw limited time as a receiver on offense. He found a larger offensive role after transferring to Tennessee University. In his final season this past year, Jones Jr. hauled in 62 receptions for 807 yards and seven touchdowns. Although he produced as a receiver, he was noticed by earning second-team all-conference notice as a kick returner. He finished his collegiate career with 2,973 kick return yards and two kick return touchdowns while averaging 24.4 yards per kick return.
The younger brother of Dalvin Cook. James split time with Zamir White for most of his collegiate career. White served as the primary rusher, and Cook spent a ton of his time as a lethal receiver out of the backfield. In 46 career games for the Bulldogs, Cook hauled 67 receptions for 730 yards and six touchdowns. During his first three seasons, he didn’t receive much work on the ground. During those three years, Cook combined for 775 yards on 117 carries (6.6 yards per attempt) and seven touchdowns. He produced 728 yards on 113 carries (6.4 yards per attempt) and seven touchdowns in his senior season alone. No matter how he got the ball, he turned in solid production in his limited role.
Being paired with Patrick Mahomes is as good as you can ask for with a rookie wide receiver prospect. Tyreek Hill is gone along with his 1239 receiving yards. Moore figures to step in and contribute immediately. I have Moore ranked as the number eight wide receiver in this class for projected future dynasty value. He has the potential to make an impact at the next level but he does not profile as a number one receiver. Moore should go off the board in rookie drafts in the early second-round.
Ebiketie was a three-star recruit from Kensington, Maryland who began his college career at Temple. He didn’t emerge until his junior year but parlayed his performance in a pandemic-shortened season into a scholarship at Penn State. He replaced Odafe Oweh, a first-round pick of the Ravens last year, and capitalized on his opportunity. Ebiketie collected 62 tackles including 18 for loss and 9.0 sacks while starting all 12 games for the Nittany Lions in 2021.
After serving as a special teams player during the 2018 season, Pierce was given an opportunity with the Bearcats on offense in 2019. He started 12 of the 13 games and led the team with 652 receiving yards. Pierce led Cincinnati with 18.5 yards per reception the next season but was limited to just six games with a shoulder injury. In his final season, he bounced back in a big way, as Pierce was named a first-team Academic All-American. In 14 games played, he hauled in 52 receptions for 884 yards and eight touchdowns.
McBride put together a marvelous high school career, excelling in three different sports. He earned All-Colorado honors for football. He set his high school record for most RBIs and home runs hit in baseball. And he set the school record for most career points scored in basketball. At Colorado State University, McBride was a viable receiving option during his first three seasons. Then, he popped off during his Senior year, accumulating 1,121 receiving yards and one touchdown on 90 receptions. During the 12 games played in 2021, McBride hauled in at least six receptions in 11 of them. He also produced at least 59 receiving yards in 11 of the 12 as well. His average of 7.5 receptions and 93.4 yards per game in 2021 shows that he’s used to producing large workloads.
After making the mistake of signing with Wake Forest, Kenneth Walker III was relegated to a committee backfield his first two collegiate seasons. Though he produced well, the coaching and supporting cast held him back. However, he chose to transfer to the BIG10 and joined Mel Tucker’s Spartans before this past season. As a junior this past season, he exploded for 1636 yards on 263 carries for a 6.2 YPC average. He averaged a reception per game and scored 19 TDs and proceeded to win the Walter Camp Player of the Year and Doak Walker (nation’s top running back) awards, in addition to receiving first-team Associated Press All-American and Big Ten Running Back of the Year honors.
Thornton committed to Baylor after dominating in both track and football at Booker T. Washington High School. After a limited role during his freshman season, Thornton put together a solid 2019 campaign. He hauled in 45 receptions for 782 yards and three touchdowns in 13 games. He missed some time and showed a ton of inconsistency during the 2020 season before putting together his best collegiate season in 2021. Thornton was a second-team all-conference receiver, as he led the Bears with 62 receptions for 948 yards and 10 touchdowns.
George Pickens | Georgia 6’3” 200 lbs. | 03/04/2001 (Age […]
If he didn’t transfer away from Nebraska after his first two seasons, there’s no telling if Robinson would have ever made it to the NFL. In his first two seasons with the Cornhuskers, the shifty receiver played in 18 games, hauled in 91 receptions for 914 yards, produced 580 rushing yards, and scored seven combined touchdowns. He decided to move closer to his hometown (Frankfort) and transfer to Kentucky University. That decision allowed Robinson to show the true player he was, and he broke out in a big way. In 13 games played, the standout receiver hauled in a whopping 104 receptions for 1,334 yards and seven touchdowns. His 104 receptions were the third-most in all of FBS. On top of that, his 1,334 receiving yards were the 11th most. He did see a dip in production as a rusher, but he turned in 111 yards on the ground on seven attempts. He was Kentucky’s top option on offense, and they did everything they could to get him the ball. Robinson decided to play in Kentucky’s bowl game win over Iowa, unlike many pro prospects. He was named the Citrus Bowl MVP after hauling in 10 receptions for 170 yards.
Hall will likely start the season splitting touches with Carter Jr. Eventually, we should expect Hall to take over as the team’s lead back. He’s a future workhorse and a surefire RB2 (at least) to start off his career. In dynasty start-ups, he’s a considerable choice in the late second round/early third round. For redraft, he may be an early second-round talent. He’s a top-two running back in this class, and he’s going to receive ample amounts of opportunities in New York.
Watson was the leading receiver on the 2019 North Dakota State team which featured Trey Lance at quarterback, with 732 yards receiving. He had 43 receptions for 801 yards his senior year. North Dakota was consistently blowing out their opponents, so you will not see eye-popping volume statistics for Watson. He is explosive, garnering 57 plays of 20+ yards over his college career. When you look at his rate stats they are far more impressive. Watson’s dominator rating was 44.0%. This is 90th percentile among prospects and ranked fifth overall. The receiving yards per team pass attempt was also solid at 3.12.
While at first, you may wonder about the landing spot, since Jacksonville just signed Foye Oluokun to a big deal, let us consider the entire picture. Foye is an undersized weakside LB, where he excelled in Atlanta the past two years. Devin Lloyd fills the prototypical three-down middle Linebacker role. Also, remember that Jacksonville traded up to make this selection, which tells how highly they think of Lloyd. The Jaguars project to play a lot of snaps on defense in the coming seasons, so Lloyd can really pay dividends as an IDP investment. Expect to see him drafted in the early-to-mid second round of IDP dynasty rookie drafts.
While he didn’t crush the athletic testing at the NFL Scouting Combine, Hamilton still performed fine. He recorded a 4.59 40-yard dash time and a 38-inch vertical jump. His broad jump was 132 inches and his three-cone time was a respectable 6.90. He chose not to participate in the bench press. Hamilton has a unique blend of size, athletic ability, and experience which make him capable of playing literally anywhere on the field.
The former top-10, pro-style high school recruit went in and improved in each of his first three seasons at Pittsburgh. He followed a decent 2019 campaign with a shaky 2020 season. He threw for 2,408 yards, 13 touchdowns, and nine interceptions in nine games played. He did post eight rushing touchdowns, but his decision to come back for one final season in 2021 paid off in a big way. In 13 games played, he produced 4,319 yards, 42 passing touchdowns, five rushing touchdowns, and only seven interceptions. He won ACC Player of the Year, the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm, and served as a finalist for the Heisman Trophy. Pickett also set Pittsburgh’s school record with 12,303 career passing yards, and 81 career touchdown passes.
Another former Freshman All-American drafted in the first round here, Davis started four games in his true freshman season before becoming a regular starter as a sophomore. He stayed for his senior season and dominated everyone he played up front. Davis won the Chuck Bednarik Award and also won the Outland Trophy as one of the top defenders in the country. He posted 5.5 TFLs and two sacks in his senior season while being double and sometimes triple-teamed every play.
Dotson improved each year at Penn State, showcasing that he’s dangerous both as a receiver and a return specialist. His 91 receptions during his senior season ranked 12th in the nation, and he also produced the 18th most receiving yards in the nation (1,182). Oh, and his 12 touchdown receptions placed him tied for seventh in all of FBS. Although he didn’t return many punts, he owns a career 13.5 return-yard average with one punt return touchdown in 2020. The former top 150 recruits can bring a ton to the pro level.
After a quiet freshman year, Burks elevated his production significantly in his sophomore year. He had 820 yards receiving and seven touchdowns in only nine games. He followed that up with an even better junior year with 1,104 yards receiving and 11 touchdowns. Burks rated highly in two of the more predictive metrics for future success. His receiving yards per team pass attempt (RYPTPA) of 3.52 was the third-best in the class. His dominator rating (share of teams receiving yards and touchdowns) was second-best overall to Jalen Tolbert.
Olave has been one of the most productive collegiate wideouts the past few years. He didn’t see the field much during his freshman season, but he was impactful in his limited time. In seven games, Olave hauled in 12 receptions for 197 yards and three touchdowns. During his sophomore season, he started to turn heads as he hauled in 48 receptions for 840 yards and 12 touchdowns. His Junior and Senior seasons were just as impressive, and he finished his career with 176 career receptions (third in school history), 2,711 receiving yards (fifth in school history), and 35 touchdown receptions (first in school history).
Jameson didn’t break out until his junior year. In fact, Williams couldn’t even break the 200 receiving yard threshold his freshman and sophomore years. Playing behind two projected first-rounders in Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave is a valid reason. However, you would have liked to see him produce at a higher rate despite that fact.