Dynasty Analysis
Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.
Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (off-season edition). Free agency has been absolutely chaotic! We as Dynasty Managers need to be evaluating the off-season transactions and thinking about our roster adjustments. Who are we going to target in rookie drafts? Who are we going to go out and trade for? Who are we willing to give up in return? Will you go all-in this season to bring home a championship? Or should you go young and prepare for the future? There’s so much to think about before September. The “off-season edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down as we head into draft season. We will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the Philadelphia Eagles.
Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.
We have a mantra at Dynasty Football Factory that has propelled a focus on consistent construction and evaluation of our dynasty rosters: #AlwaysBeBuilding. My rankings are built with the same forward direction. I aspire to be as transparent as possible in my process to provide you with a better understanding of how to value players. These rankings will be continuously updated to reflect an ever-improving player evaluation process. Allow me to walk you through some of the essential anchors I base these rankings around.
Things simply could not have gone worse for Trevor Lawrence in 2021. Immediately, I want to shift the blame towards Urban Meyer. Meyer is probably the worst NFL coach in history. He was tagged as an “offensive guru” in college football, but he was simply unable to translate this to the NFL. Back to Trevor Lawrence.
The offseason quarterback carousel continues. Matt Ryan’s name has been synonymous with the Falcons franchise for over a decade. That time is no more. After 14 long-tenured years with the same team, Matty Ice is on the move. The Colts are acquiring the veteran services of the former NFL MVP for a third-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, per Ian Rapoport. Ryan becomes another name on the long list of quarterback changes occurring around the league. There are colossal fantasy implications for both parties involved. A transaction of this magnitude will have a lasting ripple effect throughout the 2022 season and beyond. Let’s dive in.
Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (off-season edition). Off-season madness has begun, Free Agency has started, and the NFL Draft is approaching. Meanwhile, we as Dynasty Managers need to be preparing as well. Who are we going to target in Rookie Drafts? Who are we going to go out and trade for? Who are we willing to give up in return? Will you go all in this season to bring home a championship? Or should you go young and prepare for the future? There’s so much to think about before September. The “off-season edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down as we look at free agency moves and approach draft season. We will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the Miami Dolphins.
Zay Jones had a career year last year with 47 receptions and 546 receiving yards. He got a nice payday at up to $10M per year considering his lackluster career to date. They must have plans to incorporate him into the offense given the amount of the contract but he now enters a saturated receiving group. Jacksonville has been on a spending spree to improve the weapons for Trevor Lawrence. Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones are now added to an offense that is also getting back Travis Etienne. This is not exactly high-end talent but it is an improvement over what they had.
James Conner is coming off a highly productive season in Arizona last year. He ran for 752 yards and 18 touchdowns in 15 games, good for seventh overall in fantasy points per game. We should expect touchdown regression next season given the rate of over one TD per game last year. He turns 27 in May so the finer details of the contract will be interesting. Three years seems like a significant commitment but there will be contract outs given the contract is for $13.5 million guaranteed.
Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (offseason edition). We are just a few months away from all of the offseason madness, as teams prepare for free agency and the NFL Draft. Meanwhile, we as dynasty managers need to be preparing as well. Who are we going to target in rookie drafts? Who are we going to go out and trade for? Who are we willing to give up in return? Will you go all in this season to bring home a championship? Or should you go young and prepare for the future? There’s so much to think about before September. The “offseason edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down as we head into free agency and draft season. We will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the Dallas Cowboys.
This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB and PlayerProfiler to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without any outside opinions or flashy highlights swaying my opinions. Once I collect the players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. The next player of this series is a guy that still feels too low in the market but has a ton to like about him.
Last summer I wrote about my historic FFPC dynasty rookie hit rates, and how those later picks in the third and fourth rounds typically hold at least a couple of gems. If you can find the space on the limited roster in this format, those later picks are worth scrapping for. I spend them just as easily. I never let a third-round pick get in the way of making a bigger deal that I like. Often I will add a third to my offer just to further entice my potential partner.
The NFL Combine has long marked the convergence of a new season for football fans. Over 300 prospects (though not all attend) are invited each offseason to showcase their athletic prowess in front of representatives from all 32 NFL teams. A single slip-up or lapse of focus can cost a young kid millions of dollars in the draft. Alternatively, a strong performance can raise a player’s stock. As real-life NFL scouts adjust their rankings, the dynasty market follows suit. The 2022 NFL Draft class has been perennially undervalued in the dynasty community. Managers are now rushing to adjust after an impressive all-around combine from virtually every position. In this edition of the Dynasty Market Sweep, we will be analyzing the post-combine market adjustments for the upcoming 2022 rookie class.
Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (offseason edition). The off-season madness is upon us, as teams prepare for free agency and the NFL Draft. Meanwhile, we as dynasty managers need to be preparing as well. Who are we going to target in rookie drafts? Who are we going to go out and trade for? Who are we willing to give up in return? Will you go all in this season to bring home a championship? Or should you go young and prepare for the future? There’s so much to think about before September. The “off-season edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down as we head into free agency and draft season. We will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the new-named Washington Commanders.
For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a single WR1 rating. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. If data-driven rankings are not for you, I suggest my colleague @DocFFFN’s wide receiver review from a film perspective.
This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB and PlayerProfiler to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without any outside opinions or flashy highlights swaying my opinions. Once I collect the players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. The next player of this series is a guy that has recently shot up boards and is now in pretty much everyone’s top-10, but that is still too low.
Wow! The signs were there for the past year Denver would be making a big splash in the quarterback market. Denver suffered through poor quarterback play the last few years with Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater manning the helm. Then the Broncos signed Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick to contract extensions to make it an attractive destination for a potential new quarterback. Rumors were everywhere Aaron Rodgers was on his way to Denver. Then Rodgers announced he is staying in Green Bay and signing a new deal with the Packers. Hours later we get hit with the news from Adam Schefter on the blockbuster trade for Russell Wilson.
The drama that is the Aaron Rodgers Saga has now ended and Packer Nation can now breathe a lot easier this off-season. It is done. While the contract isn’t officially signed, sealed, and delivered, when there is this much smoke, it’s a safe bet that the ink will be drying shortly on this deal. So let’s take a look at the redraft implications of this on everyone involved in this offense.
This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB and PlayerProfiler to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without any outside opinions or flashy highlights swaying my opinions. Once I collect the players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. The next player of this series is a guy that has NFL workhorse size and a great production profile but is somehow not in everyone’s top-12 rookie running backs yet.
Each year the NFL Combine hosts about 40 of the top college running backs from around the country who have declared for this year’s NFL draft. They then have these players perform drills, various tests, as well as weigh them and measure their heights. The test and measurements I will be looking at are the 40-yard dash and a back’s height, weight, and BMI.
The NFL Combine officially kicked off this week, beginning with medical testing, team interviews, and of course, in-person measurements. NCAA schools are notorious for exaggerating size (aren’t we all). The combine gives us our first look at true-to-life measurements, including height, weight, wingspan, hand size, and BMI.
Every off-season the Combine comes and Twitter is ablaze with all of the size narratives. “If he’s short I’m not drafting him.” “If his BMI is too low I’m not drafting him.” “I don’t care what their size is, if they produce I like them.” “Size doesn’t matter!” “Size DOES matter!” What we do not see during this time is much real evidence with actual context. We are just given narratives or one-off examples of outliers. “Cooper Kupp ran a 4.65 and he just had the best WR season ever, 40 times don’t matter.” “DeVonta Smith has a BMI of 22.5 but he won the Heisman, I’m drafting him.” Today, my goal is not to fight for one side or the other. It is to look at the real numbers, with an unbiased eye and determine if these NFL combine metrics matter for fantasy football.
Making decisions in your Dynasty Rookie Drafts can be incredibly tough. Especially when you are forced to choose between two players you like or even two players you don’t know much about. There are a few factors that can sometimes help break the tie and make this decision much easier. One of them is a player’s NFL Draft Capital. This metric can be used for any position, but today we will just be talking about wide receivers. How does draft capital help us? Let’s find out below.
Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (off-season edition). Free agency is looming, and rumors are spreading like wildfire. Meanwhile, we as Dynasty Managers need to be listening in and thinking about our off-season adjustments. Who are we going to target in Rookie Drafts? Who are we going to go out and trade for? Who are we willing to give up in return? Will you go all in this season to bring home a championship? Or should you go young and prepare for the future? There’s so much to think about before September. The “offseason edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down as we head into free agency and draft season. We will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the Indianapolis Colts.
Your author has broken down his pre-combine rookie rankings into positional rankings with tier designations to help you better view the dynasty rookie draft landscape. It is important to remember these rankings are created with fantasy football purposes in mind. We will dive eight players deep with the QB and TE positions and ten players deep with the RB and WR positions. Up next, the TE position is detailed for the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft.