Dynasty Analysis
The DFF Army got together again after the NFL Scouting Combine for its third analyst-only Rookie Mock Draft of the 2023 off-season. Here we randomly selected spots and ran the draft in a linear order; the settings are Superflex, TEP, and PPR. Hopefully, this can help give you an earlier sense of the players you should be considering at the top of your draft and the gems you will want to target later. Check out every selection below and each writer’s reasoning behind their pick.
Spring is one of my favorite times of year but not for the same reasons as most people. Spring is the climax of rookie draft research season. As the snow begins to subside, it means the Senior Bowl is upon us. When we put the heavy down jacket into storage, it marks the calendar for the NFL Combine. Blades of glass emerge from the ground as NFL Free Agency ramps up. As we see Zay Flowers in full bloom, we have all the pomp and circumstance of the NFL Draft.
DFF TV presents another ~FREE~ episode of “The Factory Tour” with host @Paul_DFF and special guest @PsychWardFF!
Over the next few weeks, I will be revealing my annual WR1 prospect model ratings to help prepare DFF readers for their dynasty rookie drafts. This article covers the prospects ranked 15-11 in the model.
For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating score. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics.
You may find an in-depth explanation of the model’s process and a glossary of what the metrics mean here.
Before we get into the 2023 prospects, here are the top 20 all-time prospects in the model so you can see how effective it is at forecasting future fantasy value. As you can see this is a highly accurate predictor of future fantasy success. 17 of the top 20 prospect scores have gone on to have a top 24 fantasy PPG season. 14 of those 20 have had a top 12 fantasy PPG season.
If you’ve been in the Dynasty community long enough, I’m sure you’ve heard people refer to the tight end position as a wasteland. Across nearly every fantasy football platform, the top tier of TEs consists of three names: Kyle Pitts, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews (in no particular order). Since the talent pool is so sparse at the position, these Tier 1 guys can provide a significant advantage for your roster every week and ultimately carry you to a league championship. But with this value comes a hefty price tag. If you’re unwilling or unable to give up the necessary pieces to acquire one of these three studs, where can we look for consistent production?
DFF TV presents “Always Be Building” featuring @bwinknfl and @puma_drew. This ~FREE~ edition dives into the Bryce Young vs. CJ Stroud debate.
It is time to rethink how to approach “buy or sell” articles. The simple reasons to buy and reasons to sell are followed by a verdict that ignores roster construction. It becomes a stock market, which in theory there is a lot of that to Dynasty Fantasy Football. Still, I also want to win championships, and poorly constructed rosters that have won all these trades but still have massive holes on their roster are not the ones that pull that off. The season gets messy, we need depth, and we players across all position groups to be successful. Not just winning a bunch of trades to have seven startable WRs while we are rolling out some 3rd down back as our RB1 while my WR5 scores all these points on the bench. Our subject today Brock Purdy, feels more nuanced discussion than a simple buy or sell discussion would provide. Context is important and for our purposes, roster construction is our context.
It has been just over a year since we had last seen Odell Beckham Jr. playing football, and we finally learned about his new home, the Baltimore Ravens. In this article, I will be talking about what we should expect from Odell in Baltimore as well as how this move affects the Ravens’ current pieces, and what we should do with Odell on our teams and in startups. Let us not waste any time and just get right into it.
In this ~FREE~ edition of DFF TV, @WillieBeamanDFF breaks down a 10-team Dynasty Football Superflex Rookie Mock Draft!
I’ve either played or coached football for over 20 years, and my experience enters how I evaluate NFL Draft prospects. What can I trust him to do? In general, the number one thing a coach values the most in a person/player is trust. It isn’t athleticism or size. The KOP rankings will help you understand why a person struggles in the NFL or why a particular player isn’t receiving more playing time. It will allow you to move off a specific player earlier than most people in the Dynasty Fantasy Football space. For example, while most managers hoped for O.J. Howard to produce as a TE1 in his sophomore or third season; you have already traded him away.
For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a highly accurate proprietary forecasting formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a single WR1 rating. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics.
The always ~FREE~ DFF TV is proud to present the debut of “The Factory Tour” with host @Paul_DFF and special guest @WillieBeamanDFF!
Welcome back, Dynasty family! On the docket today, we’re covering Russell Wilson, one of the most polarizing players in fantasy football. The Broncos made headlines this offseason, finalizing a deal with the Saints that sent Sean Payton to Denver. Payton has one of the most illustrious coaching resumes in the NFL today, and Broncos Country is hopeful this blockbuster move will put their team back on the map. Unfortunately, 2022 was a tough season for the Broncos. Fans put most of the blame on Wilson’s shoulders, and rightfully so. He was one of the biggest disappointments last season, both from a fantasy football perspective and an NFL perspective. So what should the expectations be in 2023 and beyond for Russ, giving the coaching upgrade? I’m going to help answer that question for you below.
In this ~FREE~ DFF TV, @WillieBeamanDFF profiles Dynasty Football Rookie Prospect Jayden Reed, WR Michigan State!
In the always ~FREE~ DFF TV, join @force_fantasy for Round 3 of Pick Logic – SF TE Superflex Tight End Premium 2023 Rookie Draft 12 Team!
In this ~FREE~ edition of DFF TV, @DynastyPatrolHQ offers up strategic insight into Win-Now and Rebuild tactics!
The Dynasty Startup Draft is a pivotal day in your Dynasty career, laying the foundation for your team’s future success. Properly valuing players and making quality picks can immediately create distance between you and your league mates. A successful draft could give you the upper hand, while a poorly constructed team could result in years of rebuilding. To avoid getting off to a slow start, I’m giving you my list of mid-to-late-round players to target in your next startup draft. I’ve based my player values on a Dynasty PPR Superflex, Tight-End Premium League.
We’ve all heard the analysis and comps on Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Zach Charbonnet. The consensus in the Dynasty community is that these guys should be the first three running backs off the board in rookie drafts. But where do we go from here? First, the landing spot and draft capital will drastically influence where these prospects should fall in our rankings. But there are still plenty of resources and data points at our disposal now that we can use to determine rookie value: college tape, analytics, NFL Combine results, and plenty more. So, let’s dig into one of my favorite “mid-tier” prospects in this year’s draft, Tank Bigsby.
One of my favorite parts of Dynasty Fantasy Football is introducing someone new to it. It’s a more complex game than Redraft. requiring more forward-thinking, with many strategies and approaches to building your team. Your Dynasty startup is crucial to setting your team up for success in a Dynasty league. As we plunge into startup season, I’ll author a series of articles on different concepts, strategies, and tips for the beginner Dynasty manager. I primarily use Sleeper; it’s the easiest app for a league commissioner to utilize and navigate, so I will defer to it for this article. For now, we’ll start at square one.
DFF TV is always ~FREE~! In this installment, @WillieBeamanDFF analyzes Dynasty Football Sleeper Rookie Prospect AT Perry, WR Wake Forest.
DFF TV is always ~FREE~! In this installment, @WillieBeamanDFF analyzes Dynasty Football Sleeper Rookie Prospect Zack Kuntz, TE Old Dominion.
DFF TV is always ~FREE~! In this installment, @WillieBeamanDFF analyzes Dynasty Football Rookie Prospect Michael Mayer, TE Notre Dame.
DFF TV is always ~FREE~! In this installment, @WillieBeamanDFF analyzes Dynasty Football Rookie Prospect Tank Bigsby, RB Auburn.
Can’t you feel the excitement as we get closer to the draft? With free agency winding down, we now start to see the core of what each of these NFL teams will look like when we get into the fall. There is still one more piece to the puzzle though and if you play dynasty then it is probably amongst your favorite NFL events of the year—the NFL Draft. While I have learned not to take too much from the landing spot, I think many of us are still hurting from Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2020. It does have an impact though and we would be foolish to ignore it. I find the best practice is to have everyone divided into tiers before the NFL Draft, then move players within a tier instead of jumping them an entire tier based on landing spot. We also have draft capital to consider but that is beyond the scope of what we will be discussing today. Let’s dig in!
The beauty of Dynasty Football is that the action never ends. Owners are constantly looking to make moves in the offseason, listening to podcasts to gain an edge, ranking and re-ranking their player list, you name it. Being a Dynasty degenerate, I like to pass the time by scrubbing through endless “Power Rankings” lists. While doing so this offseason, I’ve noticed three names that I believe are significantly undervalued. Here are my “buy-low” wide receiver candidates for the 2023 Dynasty season. I recommend putting out some feelers to see what you can get for these players!