Welcome back to Factory AccuRankings Analysis, the series where I will give you guys a closer look into our member-exclusive DFF consensus rankings. The full rankings are available on our website at dynastyfootballfactory.com. We also have highly comprehensive Devy rankings, which I can attest are extremely hard to come by online.
In this stock up/stock down edition, I’ll be discussing some noteworthy changes in the most recent rankings update (9/16) and previewing some potential changes following Week 3.
DFF’S WEEKLY RISER: PUKA NACUA +110 (WR47/#122 Overall)
I wrote about Puka in the last edition of Factory AccuRankings Analysis, where I confirmed that he is indeed good at football and recommended buying high following his Week 1 performance. Now a game removed from his record-breaking Week 2, we’re starting to see the dust settle around Puka, and it appears he’s ready to inherit the Robert Woods role that myself and many others have projected him to fall into once Cooper Kupp returns from IR.
Through two games, Puka ranked first in targets, target share, receptions, and yards after catch, while also ranking 2nd in yards and 4th in EPA. Long story short, he’s shattering all analytic standards we have for rookie wide receivers, much less Day 3 rookie wide receivers. Puka is the outlier’s outlier, but I’m ready to tell you that he’s here to stay.
Even despite being the central focus of Lou Anaroumo’s defensive gameplan in Week 3, Puka still hauled in five of seven targets for a solid 72 yards. Contrary to most, I think Puka’s job is going to get a lot easier once Cooper Kupp comes back, and project Puka to dominate the short-intermediate passing game from the X receiver role, with Kupp manning the slot and Tutu Atwell and Van Jefferson splitting Z duties.
Puka will settle into a comfortable WR2/3 production tier similar to that of Robert Woods’ prime- except buying Puka right now lands you a talented 22-year-old with a very fantasy-friendly skill set, especially in PPR. I’m still beyond comfortable paying up for Puka at the moment, and while I wouldn’t go much over a late 2024 1st, I’ve found his price remains much more palatable than that in most of my leagues.
Other Risers
Brandon Aiyuk +26 (WR17/#41 Overall)
Calvin Ridley +29 (WR19/#46 Overall)
Kyren Williams +85 (RB43/#150 Overall)
DFF’S WEEKLY SINKER: KYLE PITTS -10 (TE3/#31 Overall)
It’s time to address the elephant in the room, or in this case, the fraudulent “generational tight-end” in the dynasty community. I am far from the leader of this Kyle Pitts exodus. Rather, I am here to make the case one more time for Pitts as a buy-low candidate and a potential late-year breakout.
Anyone who watches film will tell you Kyle Pitts is oozing with talent. Pitts is elite at all levels as a pass-catcher, with extremely reliable hands and generational athleticism that help him to create separation consistently. Here are a few notable stats Kyle Pitts has shined in through three games.
1st in route participation (100%)
1st in air yards share (30.3%)
2nd in ADOT (11.8)
3rd in true catch rate (100%)
4th in yards per reception (11.1)
And, most notably, 39th in catchable target rate (50%).
So yes. I know, we’re doing it again. The breakout is coming! It’s not his fault! They’re not using him right! If he just had a competent QB who could deliver passes on time and on target! I don’t care. If we can’t trust our process through this elite of a prospect, then there’s no point in trying to develop a process at all. Buy. The. Dip. I can’t confidently say when the breakout will come, but you’ll thank me when it happens.
Other Sinkers
Justin Fields -7 (QB10/#17 Overall)
Marquise Brown -27 (WR33/#74 Overall)
Cam Akers -28 (RB35/#126 Overall)
EARLY SEASON QB BREAKOUTS
Tua Tagovailoa +17 (QB13/#24 Overall)
I’ll throw out one statistic to justify Tua’s jump in our rankings. Tua’s #1 ranked EPA per pass of 0.63 is 0.36 higher than Brock Purdy’s #2 rank.
That gap between 1st and 2nd is the same size as the gap between 2nd and 22nd*.
17 spots in our rankings from 41 to 24 is no small achievement. Tua is going to continue this meteoric rise if he continues playing at this league-MVP level and stays as clean in the pocket as he has so far this season.
Brock Purdy +38 (QB19/#77 Overall)
There’s a lot that can be said about Purdy. His #2 ranked 0.27 EPA per pass* is not a number to scoff at. He’s already currently posting low-end QB1/high-end QB2 numbers, and this will only continue as he’s still in one of the best offensive systems in the league with some of the best offensive weapons in the league- and he’s only going to get more comfortable. Purdy should continue to rise as he gets settled as a bonafide field general in San Francisco.
Jordan Love +29 (QB21/#79 Overall)
Love has now posted a 3rd straight game of over 26 fantasy points and now ranks as the QB4 on the season (6pt passing touchdowns). I also wrote about him in the previous installment of this series, where I went in-depth on his elite upside and predicted a low-end QB1 finish for him this year. Love’s DFF rank will only increase as he continues to post these impressive performances against real, high-level NFL defenses like the Saints.
NEXT WEEK’S RISERS
Sam LaPorta (TE12/#112 Overall)
LaPorta is fresh off an 11-target, 8-catch, 84-yard performance in his lowest snap share of the season (74%), which puts an exclamation point on top of what is already a never-before-seen hot start to an NFL career at tight end. LaPorta leads the league in tight-end receiving yards and is 2nd in targets and target share, and he’s also the first tight end in league history to start his career with three straight games with five or more receptions. We’ll see if LaPorta continues this hot start, but it’s safe to say his career has gone about as well as you could ask for. There’s absolutely a path for LaPorta to become the dynasty TE1 within this season, factoring in his youth, impressive early production, and elite receiving ability.
De’Von Achane (RB34/#121 Overall)
Achane exploded onto the dynasty scene this past week against Denver, with a record-shattering 200+ yard, four-touchdown performance in the greatest offensive display of this generation of NFL football. Whether Achane’s stats are just a product of an outlier game or not, he’s absolutely a legitimate dynasty asset and is likely to continue accruing in value over the course of the season. Achane is clearly the most desirable in a muddled backfield and will hopefully continue to separate himself as the year progresses.
C.J. Stroud (QB15/#36 Overall)
I recommend the QB school’s breakdown on YouTube for a much more thorough analysis of C.J. Stroud, but I can certainly give you some cliff notes on Stroud’s rookie season thus far. Stroud has been elite in the short to intermediate passing game and has flashed elite touch on throws deeper down the field. His processing and anticipation have stood out, helping him manage pressure exceptionally well as he transitions from Ohio State to the Texans. Stroud appears to be far more NFL-ready than he was getting credit for, and our ranks will adjust as such. He’s already jumped up to the mid-late 2nd range for me, and I expect my fellow rankers will meet me soon enough.
D’Andre Swift (RB20/#92 Overall)
Swift has had a roller-coaster last couple of seasons, to say the least, but seems to have found a groove playing for his hometown team. While there is still much to be said about Swift as a true runner, it’s undeniable that he’s an excellent fit in Philadelphia’s heavy RPO/zone run scheme. The Eagles’ elite offensive line is doing the hard part for Swift, who now gets to use his elite athleticism to do what he does best: create explosive plays. Swift is a low-end RB1 as long as his role stays the way it has been, which appears to be fairly set in stone, and is an early league-winner candidate as he will continue to produce massive fantasy performance.
Thanks for reading! I hope you were able to learn something, or at least found this piece entertaining. You can find me @bwinknfl on Twitter/X and Tik Tok, where you can see more day-to-day content and short videos. Subscribe to the DFF YouTube channel and check out some other recent articles to dominate your leagues! #DFFArmy
*data via @Doug_Analytics on X “2023 EPA/Pass Rankings”
