Hello DFF members, I am Chris, and I am doing a rookie round-up series for the 2023 season. My primary space in fantasy centers around analytics, rookie models, and early career models, so this is something I should be able to make beneficial content out of. This will be released every two weeks, and I will keep you updated on how these rookies have been performing and how their values should be changing. I will provide my take on their current value. This should be used as a tool when buying or selling as what I think their “fair value” is. I would try to make moves for these players where you buy for less and sell for more, but if you can get the price I list, I think it is still in your favor. We have much to discuss over the season’s first six weeks. Let’s get right into it.
Zay Flowers – 48/35/367/1 (Targets/Receptions/Yards/Touchdowns)
Zay finally scored his first career touchdown! Flowers has been operating as the Ravens’ primary pass catcher, which includes out-targeting Mark Andrews by 14 (Mark missed one game, but Flowers would still have more than him). I expected him to have a good shot to lead the receivers, but this shocked me. Flowers is here to stay; he is looking consistent, but I think there is still plenty of room for him to grow. He has shown deadly quickness and great speed. I think he could be unleashed, and I would be trying to buy now.
Current Value: Late-first
Puka Nacua – 70/50/598/2
Puka has dropped off with the return of Cooper Kupp. In Kupp’s first game back, Puka still looked solid, going for 11/7/71/1 in that game. But in this most recent week, he only had four receptions for 26 yards and zero touchdowns. The Rams did throw fewer passes in this game, but still, this shows what a dramatic effect Cooper Kupp is having. Nacua should still be a WR2, but I don’t think he should be going for mid-firsts anymore.
Current Value: Just under a late-first
Jahmyr Gibbs – 39/179/0 – 18/14/70/0 (Rush Attempts/Yards/TDs – Targets/Recs/Yards/TDs)
There’s not much to update here since Gibbs has been injured for the last two weeks. But it is worth mentioning he is now the healthiest and best back on the team, so he should see a lot of work in these coming weeks. If he keeps his old role and is overshadowed by Craig Reynolds, we have a serious issue. He still holds value due to his tantalizing upside, but if I can get a plus offer for someone I know is scoring me points on my contenders, I would be open to moving him.
Current Value: Mid-first
Sam LaPorta – 42/29/325/3
LaPorta has been able to stay hot, still pacing for just near the 1,000-yard mark as a rookie (currently 997). He has had 11 targets in two different games and has caught three touchdowns over his first six career games. If he keeps this up, he will be the cemented dynasty TE1 overall. If you can buy him for cheaper than that, I would be all in.
Current Value: Mid-first + mid-second
Rashee Rice – 28/21/245/2
Rice has kept up his steady pace and has been able to put up usable fantasy scores. He is on track for about 700 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie. This is not fantastic, but it is good for a rookie WR. Rice is a guy I did not like as a prospect, but he has grown on me since the season started. This is a guy I am targeting on a rebuilding team or looking to add to a larger trade on a contender as a bye-week fill-in.
Current Value: Early-second
C.J. Stroud – 127/213/1660/9/1 – 18/55/0 (Comp/Att/Yards/TDs/INTs – Rush Att/Yards/TDs)
C.J. Stroud has done a good job keeping up his early season pace. It has fallen off a bit as he is now on track to go under 5,000 yards, but 4,700 is still very impressive, and 400 more than the current rookie passing yard record. Stroud is very close to that upper echelon of QB tier, and all he needs to do is keep playing the same as he has been. He is a guy I am not trading for right now, but if I have him, I would be looking to turn him into an already elite QB like Mahomes, Allen, or Hurts. Ideally, you could send something like Stroud, a second, and a flex player. I would go as high as Stroud and a first.
Current Value: Three mid-firsts
Tank Dell – 28/19/324/2
Tank has fallen off a bit in the last two games, but he is still an asset with a high weekly upside in this Texans offense. He is #BetterInBestball but still a fine asset in managed leagues. I would be looking to move him, though, particularly in a deal where I can package him to upgrade at a position. Two weeks ago, I moved Dell, Burks, and a first for Davante Adams. That was right off the back of two great performances by Dell, though. I do not know if you could still do that today, but that is the structure I am looking for.
Current Value: Mid-second
Jordan Addison – 34/22/277/4
Addison has been exactly what everyone had expected coming into the season. A consistent fantasy asset that knows how to create separation and get open. He has been as reliable as they come (except for one outlier game), and he might be the current WR1 of the class. He doesn’t seem like he has an alpha, top-six WR upside. But he certainly has top-15 upside. For this reason, I would not go too crazy buying him, and I do not value him as highly as I would if JSN was playing well, for example. He is a good, consistent piece; he just lacks that fantasy-breaking ceiling.
Current Value: Mid-first
Bryce Young – 115/182/967/6/4 – 8/65/0
Bryce Young has continued to struggle early. This is all okay, though. We need to not panic on rookie QBs. It is a very tough job, and he has not been dreadful; he just has not been good. Young is someone that I would be buying right now for these exact reasons. People have become so accustomed to rookies popping off immediately that we get scared when it doesn’t happen. Especially with the starts that Richardson and Stroud have both had in this class. Young is a guy that I am looking to buy on a rebuild team. I would be looking to tier down from Fields, Tua, Lawrence, or Goff and pick up a nice plus in return. If a contender owns him, you might also be able to tier up from Love, Dak, Cousins, etc, if you add another player that’s scoring points.
Current Value: Mid-first + late-first
Bijan Robinson – 80/401/0 – 32/26/189/2
Bijan is so close to being the game-breaking RB we all imagined him to be. His usage has been great; he is averaging 19 opportunities per game, five of which are targets. He just has not been finding the end zone. The Falcons are averaging 16.5 points per game, which is not enough. In addition, Atlanta as a team has scored six passing touchdowns compared to four rushing touchdowns. I would expect this to flip as the season progresses and Bijan becomes a big beneficiary.
Current Value: Two mid-firsts + mid-second
Anthony Richardson – 50/84/577/3/1 – 25/136/4
This sucks. Anthony Richardson was pacing to be the overall QB1 in points per game, and now he will miss the rest of his rookie season. This is unfortunate if you were using him to score points, but now he is attainable. If I am a rebuilder, I am pushing hard to acquire Richardson. This a spot where I would love to try and turn Stround into Richardson. As a healthy QB, Richardson is easily a top-10 dynasty asset. Treat him that way in trades. Even if I am a contender, if I can shed unnecessary points and future value to get Richardson on my IR, I am doing it.
Current Value: Three mid-firsts
Marvin Mims – 12/10/246/1
Mims is looking great on the field. His biggest issue is just getting put out there. I am not sure what the issue is, as he looks more explosive than Courtland Sutton and more sure-handed than Jerry Jeudy. Hopefully, Jeudy gets dealt, and then Mims can shine. If he is given a role, his production and value will spike, but there is no guarantee of that happening.
Current Value: Late-second
De’Von Achane – 38/460/5 – 11/9/67/2
Achane is simply ‘that dude’. I think the thesis here is pretty simple. Achane is a great fantasy player; he is young, in a promising young offense, and the team likes him. Achane is a top-8 dynasty RB. He has played three games where he eclipsed 10% of the snaps. In those games, he was the RB1, RB5, and RB4. He is averaging 34.9 points per game, and even if you remove the Broncos anomaly, he is still averaging 25.3 ppg. Achane’s efficiency will drop. But that’s okay; he will still be over 18 ppg, and his volume could also increase. I think it’s pretty easy. The dude is a stud. You may be able to buy him now if the owner that rosters him needs points. Good luck buying from a rebuilder.
Current Value: Mid-first + mid-second
Quentin Johnston – 13/6/44/0
We are officially panicking. Johnston has been dreadful so far. We even got what we needed with the Mike Williams injury, and he still looks terrible and is not getting targets. If you can get out of this asset for solid points from a tanking team, do it yesterday. This is coming from a guy who had Johnston as his WR2 in the preseason. Take what you can get and run.
Current Value: Early-second
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 25/16/110/0
For JSN, we are not slamming the panic button like we are with Johnston, but we are looking at the panic button and making sure we know where it is. It is not ideal, but JSN at least has a 15% target share and is still behind two very good WRs. If DK or Lockett were hurt and we were seeing these numbers, I would be more worried. For now, though, JSN is still an excellent prospect on a team with two elite receivers that isn’t throwing the ball a ton. Do not sell JSN; maybe even buy him, especially in a rebuild.
Current Value: Late-first
Zach Charbonnet – 23/109/0 – 9/6/36/0
Charbonnet has seen his workload slowly increase in Seattle, but it still is not approaching a place where we can consider playing him. He remains a high-value handcuff, and that is it.
Current Value: Early-second
Dalton Kincaid – 19/17/118/0
Kincaid has been overshadowed by the likes of LaPorta, and for seemingly good reason. He is not doing anything to impress, but it is important that he isn’t doing anything bad, either. Kincaid has looked solid, and from a rookie tight end, that is a good signal. If he continues at this rate, common sense would dictate that is a reasonable outcome, and we should not worry, but the masses might not think the same. Wait a few weeks, and then go send out feelers.
Current Value: Early-second
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017. Shoot me a DM; they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy, where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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