Hello DFF members, I am Chris, and I am doing a rookie round-up series for the 2023 season. My primary space in fantasy centers around analytics, rookie models, and early career models, so this is something I should be able to make beneficial content out of. This will be released every two weeks, and I will keep you updated on how these rookies have been performing and how their values should change. Let’s dive right into the recap of the season’s first month for the prominent rookies.
Zay Flowers – 29/24/244/0 (Targets/Rec/Yards/TDs)
Zay is looking great for the Ravens. He’s averaging 7.3 targets per game on a 27.6% target share. He has not caught a touchdown yet, but the Ravens have been in many positive game scripts and have been able to run for many of their touchdowns. Zay will get his, don’t worry. I think Flowers should be a consensus top-20 WR in dynasty, if not a few spots higher.
Puka Nacua – 52/39/501/1
Puka has continued to be very hot and is truly the real deal. I think, at this point, he should be a top-16 WR and more valuable than just a base first-round pick. His biggest concern will be the return of Cooper Kupp, which will hamper his production, but he should still be a high WR2 production-wise, which is more than enough. Plus, there is always the upside of Kupp re-aggravating his injury or picking up a new ailment. Puka is legit, and I probably would not trade for him unless you can get him for a contending first.
Jahmyr Gibbs – 39/179/0 – 18/14/70/0 (Rush Att/Yards/TDs – Targets/Rec/Yards/TDs)
I was so ready for Gibbs to come out of the gate with a 50/50 snap share to David Montgomery, see about 15 touches and score 20+ fantasy points. That is sadly still not happening. David Montgomery has been dominating the goal-line work and getting a huge carry share. I suppose it was foolish to hope for that immediately, but I believe Gibbs can become that player this year. His dynasty value has taken a slight depression, and I am not selling now.
Sam LaPorta – 27/22/242/1
LaPorta is off to the races in his young career, currently averaging more yards per game than Travis Kelce and on pace for 1,000 receiving yards. He should be locked in as a top-five dynasty TE. The only players I would firmly rank over him are Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce, that is it. I would still rank Pitts higher, but LaPorta taking the fourth spot sounds good to me. This dude is legit, and I think trying to buy high could still be beneficial here.
Rashee Rice – 19/13/140/1
Rice has not done much so far, but he has not been terrible. The Chiefs are still feeling him out, and he is still learning, too. Compared to a lot of expectations, Rice has been doing well. Let’s let him keep cooking, and he can expand his role throughout the season.
C.J. Stroud – 94/151/1212/6/0 – 14/51/0 (Comp/Att/Yards/TDs/INTs – Rush Att/Yards/TDs)
C.J. Stroud has kind of blown the doors off the league thus far. He is on pace to throw for over 5,000 yards, which would be the most ever for a rookie, and he has yet to throw an interception. The biggest win here has been that C.J. separated himself from falling into the Kirk Cousins tier of QB that only ever has QB12 upside and can’t do much more. I think Stroud has proven he belongs up there with the big boys like Trevor Lawrence. At this point, Stroud should be a consensus QB1, and I believe he has already proven he should be valued solidly over Bryce Young.
Tank Dell – 24/16/267/2
The emergence of C.J. Stroud has had a great effect on Tank Dell, who currently looks like a player who will be in the league for a while. Dell has quickly risen up my board, and I would gladly spend a 2nd to acquire him at this point. It will be hard for him to reach the value of a first with his profile, but he could certainly do it if we see him and Stroud continue to play this well.
Jordan Addison – 20/13/185/2
Jordan Addison put up a real stinker in Week 4, with one target and zero catches, to be exact. But do not be discouraged; those games happen to proven studs, too. His other three games have been fantastic, and Addison has proven he will be a long-term contributor in the NFL. I am confident he will one day find himself in the DeVonta Smith tier of dynasty rankings.
Bryce Young – 67/103/503/2/2 – 7/61/0
Bryce Young has certainly not started his career the way many would want, but we need to remember this is okay. Yes, Richardson and Stroud have been electric, but rookie QBs are usually not good, especially over their first three NFL games. Be patient with Young; this poor start may have even opened a buy window if he is on a contending roster. You may be able to sell someone like Cousins, Jordan Love, or Russ, who are all scoring much more points, with a plus on top to get Bryce, and I would do that whether I am contending or not.
Jonathan Mingo – 19/8/64/0
Mingo is a byproduct of Bryce Young, who we know has not been good. Mingo has also not been good, but wow, is this a poor stat line through three games. I did not like Mingo much as a prospect, and he is being outdone by Adam Theilen and D.J. Chark. Scary start for Mingo; I would be selling for a mid-second.
Bijan Robinson – 53/318/0 – 22/19/134/1
Bijan is killing it; he is the RB9 overall while only scoring one touchdown over four games. That is very impressive. His work in the receiving game has been phenomenal, and he is averaging a healthy six yards per carry. He is a stud, and the TDs will come. I am buying high if at all possible.
Anthony Richardson – 41/72/479/3/1 – 23/131/4
I do not want to undersell this, so I will be direct and to the point. Anthony Richardson is a top-six dynasty QB right now. These stats are amazing, he looks fantastic, and it will only get better. We also need to remember these came over a 2.5-game span because he left Week 2 early and then missed Week 3. He is currently on pace for 3,300 pass yards, 900 rush yards, and 48 total touchdowns. That adds up to 510 points (in six-point pass TD), which is 30 points per game… He is quickly on his way to being the next Lamar or Jalen Hurts. Send aggressive offers and add him to your team before your league-mates catch up.
Marvin Mims – 11/9/242/1
Mims has been electric with the ball so far. He just has yet to find his way onto the field long enough to create more opportunities for himself. Do not panic, though. I would much rather see a rookie be highly efficient on limited routes than not very efficient on a lot of routes. Better days are ahead for Marvin Mims, and you might be able to buy while the box scores are not eye-catching.
De’Von Achane – 27/309/4 – 10/8/53/2
Wow, what a drastic turnaround from week one. First, a healthy scratch, and now the fantasy RB2 overall. Amazing start to a career from Achane, and I cannot wait to see how he grows. At this point, he should firmly be a consensus top-12 RB in dynasty and probably even higher. I have him at RB8, and I think he could climb even higher. This train has already left the station.
Quentin Johnston – 11/6/44/0
This has been a rocky start for a highly drafted rookie. In his first week without Mike Williams hindering him, we saw a line of one reception on three targets for 18 yards. That is very poor. The Chargers are on bye this week, so hopefully, the coaching staff will install some plays to get him going because if we see a few more bad games, Johnston’s value will dip hard.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 20/12/62/0
JSN is in a similar situation to Johnston but performing much better. I am much less nervous about JSN because I loved his profile, and he is competing for targets on this team. It has been a lot of low ADOT work, and he hasn’t been particularly efficient, but he also is not getting a ton of run in the offense. I am holding steady, and maybe if he is on any contending teams that are frustrated with him, you might be able to sell them points in exchange.
Zach Charbonnet – 21/104/0 – 7/4/22/0
Charbonnet has seen his workload slowly increase in Seattle, but it still is not approaching a place where we can consider playing him. He remains a high-value handcuff, and that is it.
Dalton Kincaid – 17/55/99/0
Kincaid has been overshadowed by the likes of LaPorta and for good reason. He is not doing anything to impress, but it is worth noting that he isn’t doing anything poorly, either. Kincaid is currently just looking solid, and from a rookie tight end, that is a good signal. If he continues at this rate, common sense would dictate that is a reasonable outcome, and we should not worry, but the masses might not think the same. Wait a few weeks, and then go send out feelers.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017. Shoot me a DM; they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy, where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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