Welcome back to another weekly edition of “The Wire”. In this series, I review three players each week that you should target on the waiver wire for your Dynasty teams. To keep the information in this series consistent, I will only refer to players with an ownership percentage of less than 50%, according to Sleeper Dynasty leagues. I’ll do my best to provide you with players that have a more long-term upside rather than a one-week ceiling, seeing that this is a Dynasty series and not Redraft. So, sit back, relax, and let me find you some diamonds in the rough!
Jonnu Smith | TE | Atlanta Falcons
19% Rostered
I can’t believe I’m telling you to pick up the (alleged) TE2 in Atlanta this week, but here we are. Kyle Pitts is off to another slow start in terms of fantasy production in 2023, and it seems Arthur Smith wants to watch the world burn. After a dud in Week 1, Jonnu Smith has posted double-digit fantasy points in the past three weeks, averaging 6.7 targets, five receptions, and 60 yards per game. Smith’s usage hasn’t been far behind Pitts either, with a snap percentage of 55% or more each of the past three weeks. Jonnu is currently leading Pitts in receptions, yards, yards per reception, and red zone targets, and their team target percentage is nearly identical as well. And he’s more than DOUBLED Pitts in PPR points and YPRR in that span.
For Pitts’ owners, we can reference several underlying numbers that should give us hope for Kyle Pitts as a fantasy asset. He leads all tight ends in air yards, ADOT, and unrealized air yards, so the opportunities are there, in theory, for some monster numbers. However, herein lies the problem. Desmond Ridder is not a good NFL quarterback, plain and simple. Pitts runs all the deep routes, and Jonnu generally takes more of the underneath stuff. (Jonnu’s ADOT is 6.6 yards compared to Pitts at 11.8 yards.) Ridder can’t connect on these deeper routes, leaving the lion’s share for Smith on these dump-off passes. Kyle Pitts’ underwhelming numbers will continue until Atlanta finds a serviceable quarterback, and in the meantime, Jonnu Smith is an excellent waiver wire add and potentially even starter-worthy in 2TE leagues.
Brandon Johnson | WR | Denver Broncos
20% Rostered
This is another frustrating situation for many Marvin Mims owners. The Sooner alum has shown us his big play ability every time he’s seen the field this year, but for whatever reason, Sean Payton refuses to let him cook. Year 2 WR Brandon Johnson seems to be the third receiving option on this Broncos team for now, and it may be time for us to acknowledge this fact. Johnson had out-snapped Mims in each of the first three weeks, and while he saw a dip in action this week (35% snaps), he was still right in line with Mims and found the endzone on his only target of the evening.
Johnson now has three touchdowns on just seven receptions for the season. This TD rate is not sustainable by any means, but it is worth noting we saw this same type of hyper-efficiency from him at UCF as a sixth-year senior. Johnson found the endzone 11 times on just 38 receptions, good for a touchdown rate of nearly 29%.
As a big believer in Mims as a prospect, I’m rooting for him to leapfrog Johnson on the depth chart and fully expect him to do so at some point this season. However, Sean Payton has made his fair share of questionable decisions, and if he likes Brandon Johnson, he will continue seeing the field. This WR corps is far from formidable, with Courtland Sutton arguably the WR1 at this point and Jerry Jeudy continuing to disappoint due to endless injuries. In any given week, any one of these four receivers could be the top fantasy scorer on this team. While I don’t feel comfortable starting any of them in managed leagues, I do like the idea of picking up Johnson off waivers in deeper leagues, and I love stashing him in Dynasty Best Ball leagues due to the extreme volatility of this group and Johnson’s innate ability to find the endzone.
Braxton Berrios | WR | Miami Dolphins
33% Rostered
Berrios certainly isn’t a player your league mates will be running to the podium to claim, but he does have some sneaky upside. At this point, Berrios has firmly secured the WR3 spot on this Miami depth chart, with River Cracraft going on IR for a shoulder injury and the only other competition being a washed-up Robbie Chosen and Cedrick Wilson.
Some promising numbers to consider: Miami leads the NFL in pass yards per game, is second in touchdown passes, and fourth in completion percentage. This is a high-powered offense, and Tua knows how to feed his receivers. Berrios is coming off a nice Week 4 performance where he hauled in all six of his targets for 43 yards and a touchdown. Obviously, Berrios will not continue this production going forward with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle playing in front of him. Still, if either of these guys were to suffer injury for an extended period, Berrios would seemingly jump into the WR2 role on one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. That contingent value alone is enough reason for me to roster him in deeper Dynasty Best Ball formats.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
