Hello, fellow fantasy managers. I am Chris Miles, The Draft Director, and in this series of articles, I will be helping you determine what players value you should be taking advantage of each week in your redraft league. If someone’s value is too high I might tell you to sell or if I think their value will decrease soon he could also be a sell. I will give my reasoning for why each player falls in a certain category. I will attempt to have the format consistently be a buy and sell for each position but that may increase or decrease depending on the week.
I do not want to put a QB or TE on my list just to fill the space if they do not truly deserve it. So, you can trust that all of the players I will talk about are relevant. In this series, I will be assuming full PPR 12 team leagues. The number of flex starters will not affect this information very much but if you have a super deep league you can always hit me up on Twitter for those deeper guys. And with that said let us dive right into the Week 5 Buys and Sells
Quarterbacks
Buy – Baker Mayfield, QB CLE Browns
Baker Mayfield has averaged 14.1 fantasy points per game so far this season, which is not very inspiring. However, his team has handily won three of their four games so he has faced many negative game scripts. The Browns have also been scoring rushing touchdowns at a very high rate when compared to their passing touchdowns. They have scored nine rushing touchdowns but only two passing touchdowns. This is a pass-to-rush ratio of 4.5, while the league average is 1.9. Baker Mayfield currently has a touchdown rate of 1.8% which is well below the league average of 5%. Both of these figures should regress to the average and give Mayfield more fantasy points.
Sell – Sam Darnold, QB CAR Panthers
Sam Darnold has been on fire to start the season, but I do not think it will continue at this rate. Darnold’s biggest plus has been his rushing. He has scored five touchdowns on 20 carries through the first four weeks, which is number one in the league among players with 10 or more carries. I think this is due in part to a lack of CMC being on the field. Normal regression and CMC returning will bring Darnold right back down to Earth.
Running Backs
Buy – Darrell Henderson, RB LA Rams
Darrell Henderson has been hot to start the season, but he hasn’t had that elite game yet. He has scored 15.7, 17.2, and 16.6 in the games he has played so far. He has been very consistent but he has also seen consistent volume. Henderson boasts an opportunity share of 75.3% which ranks fifth among all RBs and I do not see this changing. Henderson has a great weekly floor but in such a high-powered offense he also has great weekly upside. I am buying high on Henderson and trying to acquire him in all of my leagues.
Sell – Cordarrelle Patterson, RB ATL Falcons
Patterson has been good to start the season, but the rate he is catching touchdowns at is unsustainable. For example, in Week 4, he caught five passes and three of them ended up resulting in touchdowns. That is a touchdown rate of 60%. Patterson also has currently scored 50% of the Falcons touchdowns. With guys like Kyle Pitts and Calvin Ridley hanging around, I do not imagine this continuing. I think Patterson will still be a usable flex player with a good floor. But, if you can sell him as the RB2 overall then you absolutely should.
Wide Receivers
Buy – CeeDee Lamb, WR DAL Cowboys
The Cowboys have not been passing the ball as much as they did in Week 1 lately. However, this is due in large part to facing multiple run funnel defenses the last three weeks. The Cowboys are still going to try their best to win real football games, not fantasy games. They already got through the soft run defense part of their schedule. With Lamb’s 27% target share, if the Cowboys get more pass-heavy the fantasy points will skyrocket.
Sell – Amari Cooper, WR DAL Cowboys
Amari is my sell as opposed to CeeDee because he has only managed a 21% target share. But, it is due more in part to his seemingly nagging injuries. Cooper is known for his lower leg injuries and these are the pesky ones that players always play through but are still affected by. So far Amari has played all of his games, but I have serious worries about him down the line. I would look to sell before he starts missing games.
Tight Ends
Buy – Tyler Conklin, TE MIN Vikings
Conklin has performed well as the third receiving option on the Vikings this year. He has earned himself a 14.4% target share. Unfortunately, there is not much else required to be a tight end to go after. Conklin is just a guy I am wanting if I drafted a guy late who did not pan out, or if you suffered an injury at the position.
Sell – Dallas Goedert, TE PHI Eagles
Dallas Goedert has scored more points than Zach Ertz this season, but his peripheral numbers are not what we want them to be. Ertz is outperforming Goedert in target share, routes run, and targets per route. Goedert is outperforming in yards per catch, total yards, and touchdowns. In fantasy football, we need to be chasing usage and not touchdowns. I would sell high on him before Ertz’s production starts to outpace Goedert’s.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
You can read the previous articles in this series here: Week 2, Week 3, Week 4
