sam darnold

Paul’s Picks – Week 5

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In terms of percentage, Week 4 was the worst week for “Paul’s Picks” so far this season. However, I will revel in my Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Dawson Knox, Kirk Cousins, Damien Harris, Brandin Cooks, and Rondale Moore takes for just a moment… Okay, that’s enough–we’re on to Week 5. As always, I’ll be bringing you names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or fall flat.

Let’s get into the picks.

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Week 5 Streamers

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What a start to the 2021 fantasy season. We’ve seen some great streaming options work out rather well (Sam Darnold), and we’ve witnessed others struggle to post solid point totals (Austin Hooper). Last week, most of the streaming options hit, and the “deep stream” option for Dalton Schultz paid off tremendously (17.8 PPR points). Take a look at this week’s top streaming options for Week 5 below. Throughout this series, we will provide the best weekly options to stream at quarterback, tight end, and D/ST. Keep in mind, each streaming option will be below 50% owned, according to ESPN leagues.

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DFS Week 4 Recap

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Let me start by saying if you didn’t have Tyreek Hill then I feel sorry for you man! Tyreek Hill lit up the field on Sunday as he had 11 receptions for 186 yards and three touchdowns. Tyreek ended up being around 10% owned allowing those who rostered him a major money-making opportunity. With that being said, let’s see how my weekly DFS picks played out!

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Week 4 Streamers

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Week 3 is over, and it’s time to focus on your Week 4 matchups. Although it has been a crazy first three weeks of the fantasy season, there’s still plenty of time to improve your rosters. Even if your team is loaded, it’s always good to analyze your streaming options each week. Throughout this series, we will provide the best weekly options to stream at quarterback, tight end, and D/ST. Keep in mind, each streaming option will be below 50% owned, according to ESPN.

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Startup Strategies: Drafting to Reload, Not Rebuild: Part 2 – Depth Evaluation

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Hurray for the start of Training Camps!! We can finally begin overhyping Twitter highlights while we listen to the sweet voice of Liev Schreiber give hope to Cowboys fans via Hard Knocks. So as we squeeze in a few more startups before the regular season starts, let’s dive into Part II of our Startup Strategies series. Make sure to check out Part I where I focus on drafting a strong core pick-by-pick through the first nine rounds of a real draft I participated in, and how you can take my strategy and deep dive to draft a roster competitive enough to win now without having to rebuild later. In Part II we’ll take a broader look at the full roster post-draft to evaluate depth by position and consider immediate and future roster moves needed to bring home The Ship. 

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Soothsayers Roundtable: Quarterback Carousel

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Beware of the Ides of March, the date March 15th was viewed by the Ancient Romans as a deadline for settling debts. The year was 44 BC and the Soothsayers informed the Dictator that their readings indicated death. A soothsayer is a minor priest also known as a haruspex, otherwise known for practicing animal sacrifice and reading the remnants of the body for signs from their deities. The practice of animal sacrifice is very similar to us fantasy players praying to the fantasy gods for a player they roster to get put back in for the goal line work as they fret a close competition. Back in Ancient Rome, the dictators and government generals would often consult with the Soothsayers regarding future war campaigns.

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Robby Anderson

2021 Projections: Carolina Panthers

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The Panthers have typically been a run-heavy team in years past. This is due to them having Cam Newton and a revolving door at QB. Now that they have a stable passer in Darnold I think they will throw more often. In 2020 they had a pass to rush play ratio of 1.35 which is exactly league average. For 2021 I have them bumping up to a 1.41 ratio. As for their rush-to-pass touchdown ratio they have had a very low one of .85 in 2019 and .84 in 2020. Typically this sort of thing regresses to the league mean of 1.82, and I find it unlikely that we will see this low of a ratio again. So, for 2021 I am giving them a ratio of 1.25. Now let us look at what these trends do to the individual players.

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Startup Strategies: Drafting to Reload, Not Rebuild

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Rookie drafts are wrapping up and startups are the only thing getting dynasty owners through the off-season. If you’re a true dynasty degenerate, at least set yourself up for success from the draft. We’re not going to just set ourselves up for success now, but build a sustainable roster for the future to create a true “dynasty.” You don’t have to go all-in on big-name vets, nor do you need to only draft players under 26. Mix a little of both strategically.

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2021 Buy Low Dynasty Sleepers

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It’s officially start-up season! The buzz of the NFL Draft and free agency has worn off, rookie drafts are wrapping up, and dynasty managers are left chasing that sweet high. We’re all scraping for every bit of info we can from OTAs like we’re searching for a loose fry at the bottom of the bag. Welcome to The Void. The space between OTAs and Mini-Camps where every fantasy junkie is trying to fill said void anyway we can. Most of us are now obsessively trading or telling ourselves “just one more startup,” followed by more obsessive trading. Depending on what boat you’re in, let’s look at those cheap sleepers you can either buy low on the league trade block or take a flier during a startup so you can spend that high draft stock elsewhere using Sleeper’s ADP data, and scouting reports from NFL.com.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: NFC South

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Tampa Bay made it apparent that they wanted to retain Brady’s pass-catchers by re-signing both Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin. Add them to the mix of Mike Evans, Scotty Miller, Rob Gronkowski, and Cameron Brate, and this group may be the deepest receiving crew in the league. To add more fire to the mix, O.J. Howard will come into the 2021 season fully healthy again. Brady finished as the QB8 last season, but most of his damage came in the second half of the season. From Weeks 7 and 17, he served as the QB6, but what’s more impressive is that he finished as the QB2 during the last three weeks of the season. Why is that the more impressive part? Maybe it’s because those last three weeks are typically the FANTASY PLAYOFFS!

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Sam Darnold to Carolina: Rapid Reaction

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The 2021 offseason has been an eventful one, especially for the quarterback position. Carson Wentz, Matthew Stafford, and Jared Goff have changed teams. Dak Prescott has received a massive contract extension. Deshaun Watson has threatened a holdout. San Francisco has traded up in the NFL Draft to secure their franchise quarterback. Now the Carolina Panthers have stolen the spotlight, trading a 2021 sixth-round pick, a 2022 second-round pick, and a 2022 fourth-round pick for New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold. 

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Kedon Slovis: 2021 Devy Profile

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In 2019 Kedon Slovis took over after J.T. Daniels went down to injury and never looked back. Daniels has since transferred to Georgia. Slovis put up big numbers for a true freshman and immediately garnered attention because of it. Slovis’s numbers are a bit deceptive because he only played six games in 2020. It isn’t perfect, but if we extrapolate these numbers to match a traditional 12 game season, things look a bit better. He was on pace for 3842 yards and 34 touchdowns. These marks would’ve put him above all quarterbacks receiving 2022 first-round valuations. However, with this extrapolation, we see he was on pace for 14 interceptions as well. With three of his seven interceptions coming in his final game against Oregon, that 14 may not be as accurate as it seems.

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new coaching hires

New NFL Coaching Hires: Where The Dust Settled (Part 1)

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All seven of the vacant head coaching positions that were available in the NFL this offseason have been filled. In this piece, your author is giving a rapid reaction to each hire, along with some brief fantasy football implications. Understand that these are the analyses and opinions of your author, based on the knowledge and information he possesses. The NFL is a dynamic league, and turnover at the head coach and GM positions not only occur each year but also keeps interest in NFL franchises fresh and relevant. The complete slate of additions will be covered in two articles, the first three breakdowns are here. Overall, the decisions made were underwhelming but interesting. Some teams made strong hires, some underwhelming hires, and some were true boom or bust hires. Now it’s time to dive in, in no particular order, and unpack the new coaching hires… 

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Navigating your Rookie Draft: 2021 Quarterbacks

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There has been a meteoric rise in the number of dynasty leagues that are either starting up as Superflex leagues or transitioning to Superflex leagues, it is the way to go. Now there will always be a nostalgic place for one quarterback leagues for fantasy football players, but devaluing the most important position in football, arguably in all of sports does not hold much value anymore.

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Deshaun Watson Trade: Real or Rumor?

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I know that everyone’s eyes are on the NFL Playoffs right now. We just capped off an exciting Super Wild Card weekend, and we have three weeks of football left to go. However, even though these playoff games affect dynasty value, there’s no bigger dynasty story right now than a potential Deshaun Watson trade. Let’s jump into the full story!

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Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 16

Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 16

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In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding. 

I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.

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Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 5

Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 5

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In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding. 

I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.

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Chris Herndon: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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The Jets selected Herndon out of Miami in the fourth round of the 2018 NFL Draft. At the time, the Jets had recently selected Sam Darnold as their new franchise quarterback. Darnold had relatively few reliable weapons, especially at tight end. Therefore, Herndon jumped into the offense as a starter almost from the beginning of his rookie year. Head coach Todd Bowles employed a base 11 personnel offense, with Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa, and Jermaine Kearse as their three receivers. However, Herndon played a critical role as one of their underneath targets, finishing behind the three receivers in targets as the fourth target on the team.

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