Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. We will dive deep into the NFC South division this week. This is the fourth divisional breakdown, and you can find breakdowns from the AFC East, the NFC East, and the AFC South by clicking on each division. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team. Let’s dive right in.
Buccaneers
Stock Up – Tom Brady
| Year | Team | Games Played | Completion Percentage | Yards | TDs | INTs | Rushing Yards | TDs |
| 2000 | NE | 1 | 33.3% | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2001 | NE | 15 | 63.9% | 2,843 | 18 | 12 | 43 | 0 |
| 2002 | NE | 16 | 62.1% | 3,764 | 28 | 14 | 110 | 1 |
| 2003 | NE | 16 | 60.2% | 3,620 | 23 | 12 | 63 | 1 |
| 2004 | NE | 16 | 60.8% | 3,692 | 28 | 14 | 28 | 0 |
| 2005 | NE | 16 | 63.0% | 4,110 | 26 | 14 | 89 | 1 |
| 2006 | NE | 16 | 61.8% | 3,529 | 24 | 12 | 102 | 0 |
| 2007 | NE | 16 | 68.9% | 4,806 | 50 | 8 | 98 | 2 |
| 2008 | NE | 1 | 63.6% | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2009 | NE | 16 | 65.7% | 4,398 | 28 | 13 | 44 | 1 |
| 2010 | NE | 16 | 65.9% | 3,900 | 36 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| 2011 | NE | 16 | 65.6% | 5,235 | 39 | 12 | 109 | 3 |
| 2012 | NE | 16 | 63.0% | 4,827 | 34 | 8 | 32 | 4 |
| 2013 | NE | 16 | 60.5% | 4,343 | 25 | 11 | 18 | 0 |
| 2014 | NE | 16 | 64.1% | 4,109 | 33 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| 2015 | NE | 16 | 64.4% | 4,770 | 36 | 7 | 53 | 3 |
| 2016 | NE | 12 | 67.4% | 3,554 | 28 | 2 | 64 | 0 |
| 2017 | NE | 16 | 66.3% | 4,577 | 32 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| 2018 | NE | 16 | 65.8% | 4,355 | 29 | 11 | 35 | 2 |
| 2019 | NE | 16 | 60.8% | 4,057 | 24 | 8 | 34 | 3 |
| 2020 | TB | 16 | 65.7% | 4,633 | 40 | 12 | 6 | 3 |
Here we go again. Brady is entering his 22nd season in the league, and he still looks sharp. Fresh off a Super Bowl victory back in February, the Buccaneers’ signal-caller will get EVERY single skills player back from last season. He even received a great pass-catching RB to add to his arsenal in Giovani Bernard.
Tampa Bay made it apparent that they wanted to retain Brady’s pass-catchers by re-signing both Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin. Add them to the mix of Mike Evans, Scotty Miller, Rob Gronkowski, and Cameron Brate, and this group may be the deepest receiving crew in the league. To add more fire to the mix, O.J. Howard will come into the 2021 season fully healthy again.
Brady finished as the QB8 last season, but most of his damage came in the second half of the season. From Weeks 7 and 17, he served as the QB6, but what’s more impressive is that he finished as the QB2 during the last three weeks of the season. Why is that the more impressive part? Maybe it’s because those last three weeks are typically the FANTASY PLAYOFFS!
Brady’s 2021 Prediction
Passing: 4,814 yards, 36 touchdowns, 12 interceptions
Rushing: 25 yards, 0 touchdowns
Stock Down – Rob Gronkowski
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2010 | NE | 16 | 42 | 546 | 13.0 | 10 |
| 2011 | NE | 16 | 90 | 1,327 | 14.7 | 17 |
| 2012 | NE | 11 | 55 | 790 | 14.4 | 11 |
| 2013 | NE | 7 | 39 | 592 | 15.2 | 4 |
| 2014 | NE | 15 | 82 | 1,124 | 13.7 | 12 |
| 2015 | NE | 15 | 72 | 1,176 | 16.3 | 11 |
| 2016 | NE | 8 | 25 | 540 | 21.6 | 3 |
| 2017 | NE | 14 | 69 | 1,084 | 15.7 | 8 |
| 2018 | NE | 13 | 47 | 682 | 14.5 | 3 |
| 2020 | TB | 16 | 45 | 623 | 13.8 | 7 |
With every Batman comes a Robin. Gronkowski has served as Brady’s Robin since he entered the league back in 2010. They’ve won four Super Bowls together, and they might not be done just yet. So why is Gronkowski’s fantasy value plummeting?
There are a few reasons for this. First, he’s an old 32 years of age, and he’s battled injuries a ton during his time in the league. Second, like mentioned above, O.J. Howard is coming back fully healthy this season, and he outshined Gronk by a longshot when he was on the field last season. For instance, during the first four games of the season when Howard was healthy, Gronk served as the TE42 and Howard was the TE15. Between Weeks 5 and 17 when Howard was sidelined, Gronk finished as the TE3.
His slow start to last season could be because he was fresh off a full season hiatus, but Howard’s presence certainly didn’t help. It’s hard to imagine Gronk’s fantasy value to be great this season, but he should still be serviceable. Expect the future Hall of Famer to finish outside the top-10 amongst TEs, especially with all the weapons returning this season.
Gronkowski’s 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 41 receptions, 525 yards, 5 touchdowns
Falcons
Stock Up – Russell Gage
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2018 | ATL | 15 | 6 | 63 | 10.5 | 0 |
| 2019 | ATL | 16 | 49 | 446 | 9.1 | 1 |
| 2020 | ATL | 16 | 72 | 786 | 10.9 | 4 |
Obviously, Gage’s stock is rising each day. Julio Jones is out of town! Sure, the Falcons drafted Kyle Pitts, but on depth charts and the team’s roster, the rookie is listed as a TE and not a WR. Yes, this makes a difference.
Although Jones played in nine games last season, Gage was still able to produce career highs in targets, receptions, receiving yards, receiving yards per catch, and touchdown receptions. The more important part is that he played in every single game in 2020.
The fourth-year pro finished as the WR40 last year, and he’s improved his totals in every single season thus far. In the seven games when Jones missed due to injury, Gage averaged 6.4 targets, 4.3 receptions, 48.6 receiving yards, and hauled two of his four receiving touchdowns. He’s certainly the WR2 on this team now, and he shouldn’t have to worry about Olamide Zaccheaus or Tajae Sharpe taking away any of his opportunities.
Gage’s 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 81 receptions, 915 yards, 4 touchdowns
Stock Down – Hayden Hurst
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2018 | ATL | 12 | 13 | 163 | 12.5 | 1 |
| 2019 | ATL | 16 | 30 | 349 | 11.6 | 2 |
| 2020 | ATL | 16 | 56 | 571 | 10.2 | 6 |
Kyle Pitts was mentioned above, and he’s going to steal every single bit of fantasy value away from Hayden Hurst. Coming off of his best season as a pro, Hurst finished as the TE11 in 2020. He showed spurts of fantasy greatness, but overall, he was very streaky, and he was held to two or fewer receptions five times last season.
Pitts was drafted to become Atlanta’s starting TE over Hurst, and this simply demoralizes Hurst’s value. In his two seasons in Baltimore playing behind Mark Andrews, he was unable to finish better than the TE34. There’s no evidence showing that he will finish higher than that spot this season.
At a position that already lacks certainty, Hurst serving as the TE2 on his own team will create less optimism for fantasy owners. He should be a solid backup behind Pitts, but if you have Hurst on your Dynasty team, you certainly missed the window of trading him for good value.
Hurst’s 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 36 receptions, 381 yards, 3 touchdowns
Panthers
Stock Up – Sam Darnold
| Year | Team | Games Played | Completion Percentage | Yards | TDs | INTs | Rushing Yards | TDs |
| 2018 | NYJ | 13 | 57.7% | 2,865 | 17 | 15 | 138 | 1 |
| 2019 | NYJ | 13 | 61.9% | 3,024 | 19 | 13 | 62 | 2 |
| 2020 | NYJ | 12 | 59.6% | 2,208 | 9 | 11 | 217 | 2 |
Just because Darnold is in the category of “stock up” doesn’t mean he will light it up in the fantasy world this season. The Panthers’ HC, Matt Rhule, turned Teddy Bridgewater into a QB who threw for over 3,700 yards last season. What makes you believe he can’t do the same with Darnold? The fourth-year pro has every reason to improve his numbers this season.
First of all, he is getting Robby Anderson back as a deep-threat target just like in New York. Second, D.J. Moore is one of the better young receivers in the game, and he could turn into a top-10 WR at some point. Oh, and there’s also the fact that Christian McCaffrey, arguably the best receiving RB in the league, will be catching passes out of the backfield for Darnold. Curtis Samuel is no longer on the team, but rookie receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. is quietly a good replacement for him.
The biggest thing for the 24-year-old signal-caller is his health. He has yet to play a full season, but he’s certainly going to a team with a better offensive line and more offensive firepower surrounding him. His stock is up right now, and don’t be surprised if he sets career highs in every passing category this season.
Darnold’s 2021 Prediction
Passing: 3,826 yards, 23 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
Rushing: 212 yards, 2 touchdowns
Stock Down – Ian Thomas
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2018 | CAR | 16 | 36 | 333 | 9.3 | 2 |
| 2019 | CAR | 16 | 16 | 136 | 8.5 | 1 |
| 2020 | CAR | 16 | 20 | 145 | 7.3 | 1 |
It’s hard to find a player whose stock is down entering the season for Carolina. D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson have the potential to improve without Curtis Samuel on the team. Christian McCaffrey is entering the season healthy with a new QB who likes to dump the ball off in the backfield. Dan Arnold is now on the team, and he’s an underrated pass-catching TE coming off a season where he topped 400 receiving yards. And the team drafted a talented wide-out out of LSU in Terrace Marshall Jr. The only player whose stock is dropping is Ian Thomas.
Thomas was the surefire TE1 last season due to the departure of Greg Olsen. He played in all 16 games, but he finished as the TE60. Entering the 2021 season, there was optimism that he could turn things around. Well, that was before the team decided to bring Arnold into town.
On top of bringing Arnold to Carolina, the team also decided to draft Tommy Tremble out of Notre Dame in this year’s draft. Tremble is a great pass-catcher coming from a school that turns TEs into pros nearly every year. If anything, both Thomas and Arnold should be threatened by Tremble’s arrival. The combination of new TEs with the fact that there are a plethora of talented receivers on the team pretty much diminishes Thomas’ fantasy value overall.
Thomas’ 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 18 receptions, 163 yards, 1 touchdown
Saints
Stock Up – Adam Trautman
| Year | Team | Games Played | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2020 | NO | 15 | 15 | 171 | 11.4 | 1 |
The hype train continues with Trautman! So many fantasy analysts believe Trautman will break out this season. Here’s the thing, there’s no reason why he won’t. Look at the other pass-catchers surrounding him. Michael Thomas is easily the best receiver on the team, and there’s no locked-in number two target for New Orleans.
Last season, playing behind both Jared Cook and Josh Hill, Trautman finished as the TE59. Now, he will certainly serve as the team’s starting TE, and he has the potential to produce like a TE1 in fantasy. If you look back at his college tape, you can see that Trautman was a dominant pass-catcher at the collegiate level. During his senior season alone, he caught 70 passes for 916 yards and 14 touchdowns for Dayton University.
Trautman could be that second-year TE who breaks out in 2021. He has the physical tools and right opportunity surrounding him for a breakout season. Don’t get too carried away when it comes to Trautman’s value right now. His stock is rising rapidly, but that doesn’t mean he’s an automatic TE1 in your fantasy league(s).
Trautman’s 2021 Prediction
Receiving: 41 receptions, 453 yards, 4 touchdowns
Stock Down – Taysom Hill
| Year | Team | Games Played | Completion Percentage | Yards | TDs | INTs | Rushing Yards | TDs |
| 2018 | NO | 16 | 42.9% | 64 | 0 | 1 | 196 | 2 |
| 2019 | NO | 16 | 50.0% | 55 | 0 | 0 | 156 | 1 |
| 2020 | NO | 16 | 72.7% | 928 | 4 | 2 | 457 | 8 |
There’s a QB battle going on in New Orleans right now between Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston. Although Hill took over for an injured Drew Brees last season for four games, it’s hard to imagine Winston not winning the job. He’s started 70 career games compared to Hill’s four from last season.
Let’s just pretend Hill won the starting job for a moment. It wouldn’t be surprising if he lost it at some point. He’s only thrown for one more passing touchdown than interceptions during his career, and he hasn’t played the position regularly since 2016 when he was a fifth-year senior playing for BYU.
The versatile signal-caller finished as the QB29 last season. In the four games he started between Weeks 10 and 13, he respectively served as the QB13. That’s not a bad spot, but he’s going into this season battling Winston for the QB1 position, a receiving group that lost both Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook, and four career QB starts to his name. That’s not the typical resume you want from your dynasty QB. Add that to the fact that every year on his contract is voidable, and it should tell you that the team isn’t fully sold on him yet. The Saints aren’t all in on him and you shouldn’t be either.
Hill’s 2021 Prediction
Passing: 1,087 yards, 7 touchdowns, 4 interceptions
Rushing: 381 yards, 5 touchdowns
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