Intro
I know that everyone’s eyes are on the NFL Playoffs right now. We just capped off an exciting Super Wild Card weekend, and we have three weeks of football left to go. However, even though these playoff games affect dynasty value, there’s no bigger dynasty story right now than a potential Deshaun Watson trade. Let’s jump into the full story!
Background
As I’m sure everyone has heard, Watson is currently unhappy in Houston. Last offseason, the previous regime led by Bill O’Brien traded away star receiver DeAndre Hopkins. However, even after that move, Watson still signed a massive 4-year, $160 million extension, tying him to the Texans through the 2025 season.
Therefore, I would assume that Watson wasn’t furious about that trade, and he seemed committed to the Texans up until recently. But, now, Watson has significant issues with the Texans’ hiring practices. He wanted them to interview Chiefs’ offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy for the Texans’ head coach vacancy, and he was displeased with their new general manager, Nick Caserio.
After the Caserio hiring broke, rumors immediately surfaced that Watson wanted a trade out of Houston. Watson possesses a full no-trade clause in his contract, so he can only be traded with his consent. Therefore, any trade must be to a destination both that Watson desires and that can offer appropriate compensation to the Texans. Luckily, Watson’s contract is structured with mostly guaranteed base salaries, not signing bonuses, so a trade would not cripple the Texans’ salary cap.
The Miami Deal
In my opinion, I believe that the Dolphins are the only team that truly makes sense for a Watson trade. First, Watson seems interested in playing in Miami, so he would likely waive his no-trade clause and accept a trade there. More importantly, the Texans need a trade partner who can both offer a quarterback and draft capital in return.
The Dolphins have two first-rounders, two seconds, a third, and two fourths in 2021, including the #3 overall pick. They also have young quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who would come to the Texans on a cheap rookie contract. If the Dolphins offered the #3 pick, #18 pick, Tagovailoa, and some other pieces, that return would allow the Texans to rebuild their depleted roster. Don’t forget that the Texans traded their first and second-round picks to the Dolphins in the first place. Considering that the Texans’ pick became the third overall selection, they must regret that deal now.
Overall, I see the possibility of a trade between the Dolphins and the Texans. I would say that there’s about a 25-30% chance this deal happens. What it comes down to is Watson’s thinking. If Watson is truly determined to leave Houston and won’t budge on that, the trade will happen. In today’s sports world, players have more power than ever, especially a star quarterback like Watson.
The Dolphins would also be an immediate Super Bowl contender with Watson as their quarterback, as they went 10-6 this past year with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tagovailoa. They will not pass up the opportunity to get a clear top-five quarterback in his prime, no matter the cost. Tagovailoa is a great prospect, but Watson led the NFL in passing yards in 2020. Getting a quarterback like that on a reasonable contract is impossible and represents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the Dolphins.
Other Options
Honestly, I struggled to make any other Watson trades make much sense in my mind. Virtually no other teams have both a quarterback and the draft capital to make a deal workable. If a different franchise owned the top overall pick, I would think about a Trevor Lawrence-Watson deal, but I can’t see the Jaguars and Texans making an in-division trade.
The Jets pick second overall, and they could offer both Sam Darnold and their first-rounder. However, there’s no way Watson accepts a deal to the disastrous Jets’ franchise. They’re clearly in rebuilding mode, and adding Watson to their current roster would not even remotely make them into contenders, especially given the acquisition cost.
A few other teams could package their current quarterback with their first-round pick and other assets, like the Giants, 49ers, Falcons, Lions, Broncos, and Panthers. But, I just don’t see any of those teams having enough to offer to appeal to the Texans. Most of those rosters aren’t in great shape either, and I doubt Watson would find any of those destinations incredibly intriguing. Of course, a surprise could always happen, but I can’t come up with a trade scenario outside of the Dolphins off the top of my head.
Conclusions
I think this situation represents a real test of player power in the NFL. We’ll have to watch it play out, but I want to know what happens. No matter what, this storyline will be one of the most significant in dynasty circles until it’s fully resolved. Luckily, any trade will essentially have to happen before the NFL Draft, so this saga won’t drag on past late-April.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
