Giovani Bernard

Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (offseason edition). Now that the 2021-22 season has finally concluded, we as dynasty managers should be thinking about the next fantasy season RIGHT NOW! How are you going to improve your rosters before next September? What value can you add before your rookie drafts? You need to be thinking about these questions before it’s too late. The “offseason edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down from each NFL team going into the offseason. Today is all about the Brady-less Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

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Week 6 Waiver Wire Grind

We’ve hit on some running backs on the waiver wire whose production has helped boost their value since we picked them up. If you haven’t been keeping up with the series we’ve been hitting on players like Elijah Mitchell, Kenneth Gainwell, Brandon Bolden, and more. As the season trucks along, the waiver wire continuously seems to be more sparse with options. This week we are going to look at players who have more short-term production value but are still worth the waiver wire stab.

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Joe Mixon: By the Numbers

Volume is king in fantasy football. This could finally be the year where we see Mixon’s volume skyrocket. The Cincinnati Bengals are without their notorious touch-stealing threat, Giovani Bernard. This means all the third down work, all the goal line touches, and everything in between for Mixon. This is the first time he’ll have this opportunity in his career. From 2017 (Mixon’s rookie year) through 2019 (not including 2020 where he only played in six games), Mixon has averaged 290 receiving yards and 36 receptions on 45 targets per season. Meanwhile, in that span, Bernard averaged 280 receiving yards and 36 receptions on 50 targets per season. You take Bernard out of the equation and Mixon’s numbers essentially double. Mixon is easily looking at 300 total touches this season.

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Antonio Brown: League Winner

If you’re in the business of winning, then you should be in the boomin’ AB business in 2021. He is the definition of a potential league winner. After almost 18 months away from football for well-publicized off-the-field issues, he joined Tampa Bay Week 9 and was quickly back to vintage form. He finished in the 88th percentile against man coverage (Reception Perception) and third in fantasy points per snap (PFF). This led to him finishing tied as the WR21 on a point per game basis in Weeks 9 through 17. Considering AB was available in the late rounds of dynasty start-up drafts, and on the waiver wire in redraft leagues, the low-end WR2 production he posted was money in the bank for those fantasy players who took the risk on AB. 

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: NFC South

Tampa Bay made it apparent that they wanted to retain Brady’s pass-catchers by re-signing both Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin. Add them to the mix of Mike Evans, Scotty Miller, Rob Gronkowski, and Cameron Brate, and this group may be the deepest receiving crew in the league. To add more fire to the mix, O.J. Howard will come into the 2021 season fully healthy again. Brady finished as the QB8 last season, but most of his damage came in the second half of the season. From Weeks 7 and 17, he served as the QB6, but what’s more impressive is that he finished as the QB2 during the last three weeks of the season. Why is that the more impressive part? Maybe it’s because those last three weeks are typically the FANTASY PLAYOFFS!

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Knee Deep in Muddy Backfields: The Bucs

Knee Deep in Muddy Backfields: The Bucs

After the NFL draft, there are quite a few backfields without a clear picture of who the workload is going to fall on. While it’s possible some backfields may continue as committees, more than likely, a few of them will have one guy receive a large volume of the work. That’s what I’m aiming to dive into in this series: who will emerge from the muddy backfields and cement their place as a fantasy value this season?

Luckily, JJ Zachariason has already put in the research to show us what to look for. Even though his research is primarily for redraft, we can apply it to dynasty as well. Breakout running backs typically aren’t handcuffs. They come from ambiguous backfields and are oftentimes drafted as the 2nd back from their team. Pass catchers have an easier route to breakout, as there is typically a three rush to one reception workload ratio. Most importantly, age doesn’t matter. Players in their 5th year are just as likely as rookies to break out in these situations.

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Joe Mixon: 2021 Dynasty Profile

Joe Mixon played college football at the University of Oklahoma from 2014-2016. As a redshirt sophomore, Mixon racked up over 1,800 yards from scrimmage and scored 15 TDs. After his strong 2016 season, Mixon declared for the 2017 NFL Draft. During the pre-draft process, he measured in at 6’ 1”, 226 lbs. and registered an impressive 92nd-percentile speed score with his 4.50 40-yard dash. Under different circumstances, Mixon could’ve easily been a first-round pick. Due to character concerns and an incredible RB class that included Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, and Christian McCaffrey, Mixon slipped into the second round where he was selected by the Cincinnati Bengals.

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Looking Ahead to Week 8

In this weekly article, JKarp looks ahead to the following week. He’ll point out a few players below 40% owned on ESPN who have strong matchups next week that you can pick up ahead of time to beat the waiver run. He also helps you get ahead of breakouts that could happen in the current week, as predicting breakouts is the best way to save your FAAB budget.

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Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 4

Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 4

In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding. 

I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.

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