Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (offseason edition). Now that the 2021-22 season has finally concluded, we as dynasty managers should be thinking about the next fantasy season RIGHT NOW! How are you going to improve your rosters before next September? What value can you add before your rookie drafts? You need to be thinking about these questions before it’s too late. The “offseason edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down from each NFL team going into the offseason. Today is all about the Brady-less Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

STOCK UP – KE’SHAWN VAUGHN

Who knows how this Buccaneers squad will look next season. Arguably the greatest quarterback of all time, Tom Brady, has recently retired. Rob Gronkowski may follow in his footsteps and do the same. And Bruce Arians has hinted that he may step away as well. Here’s what we do know: Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones II, Giovani Bernard, and Le’Veon Bell are all set to hit the open market once free agency begins in March. So who’s left at the running back spot for Tampa Bay? 32-year-old Kenjon Barner and the former third-round pick from the 2020 NFL draft, Ke’Shawn Vaughn. 

We didn’t see much of Vaughn during his first two seasons in the league, as he was overshadowed by both Fournette and Jones II. But we did see a glimpse of what he’s capable of in the ladder half of the 2021 season. Fournette was forced to miss Weeks 16-18, as well as the first round of the NFL Playoffs. In Week 16, Jones II served as the team’s primary ball-carrier but suffered an injury of his own early in the team’s Week 17 matchup against the Jets. So in came Vaughn, who had seen increased usage ever since Fournette went down. In Weeks 16-19 (19 being the first round of the playoffs), Vaughn carried the ball a combined 42 times for 183 yards and three touchdowns. During that same span, he hauled in six of his eight targets for 35 yards. 

Don’t be surprised if Tampa Bay either re-signs one of the two prolific backs in Fournette and Jones II or if they draft a running back come April. Here’s another thing to keep in mind. Bernard is set to be a free agent as well, and he’s a very good receiver out of the backfield that demands a lot of targets. If he also chooses to play elsewhere, Vaughn could see a significant increase in targets in 2022. He did haul in 28 receptions for 270 yards and a touchdown in 12 games played during his senior season at Vanderbilt. Sure, nothing about Vaughn’s game is eye-popping yet, but with a new-look offense, Fournette, Jones II, and Bernard set to hit free agency, and only being 24 years old, Vaughn has a really good chance at becoming fantasy-relevant next season. 

Other Notables: Jaelon Darden, Tyler Johnson

STOCK DOWN – LEONARD FOURNETTE

Going into the 2021 season, it was unsure if Fournette would resume the starting running back role that he overtook during Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl run the season prior. There were weeks where Jones II was clearly the lead back for much of the 2020 season, but when it came to the postseason, it was “Playoff Lenny” time. Needless to say, that continued into the 2021 season, as Fournette put together one of the most efficient seasons of his career. His total scrimmage yards weren’t his most by any means, but his 4.5 yards per attempt were a career-best, and his 10 total touchdowns were the most since his rookie season. Fournette was limited to 14 games played, and in Weeks 1-15, he served as the RB3 in PPR leagues. His 17-game pace calculated out to 986 rushing yards, 84 receptions, 551 receiving yards, and 12 total touchdowns. 

The issue going forward with Fournette is that his days as a team’s RB1 could be over. Now that Brady is retired, there will be a ton of turnover in Tampa Bay. As mentioned earlier, Fournette is set to hit free agency in March. If you have any Fournette shares, you are hoping that he sticks around in Tampa Bay, despite the team needing to shift to a new signal-caller. Their offensive line is one of the best in the league, as they graded out as the second-best in the league this season, according to PFF. It doesn’t matter if he lands anywhere else this offseason; he’s likely to see a dip in production. Maybe Fournette sticks around during the new era in Tampa Bay. If he does, his stock should still be down going into the 2022 season for a couple of reasons. First of all, he’s 27 years old, and he’s yet to play a full season in his five-year career. Secondly, he’s a bruiser, who has received a heavy workload during his college and pro careers. 

How many 27-year-old, or older, running backs with 900-plus carries in their careers played in 2021? That answer is 11, including Fournette. Let me run you through the list of the other 10: Derrick Henry, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, Jordan Howard, Mark Ingram, Devonta Freeman, Le’Veon Bell, Latavius Murray, Carlos Hyde, and Adrian Peterson. Of those 10, how many finished as an RB1 (top-12) or better after age 26 during their careers? FOUR! Peterson (three times), Ingram (three times), Hyde (once), and Johnson (once). Fournette is not a player that you need to desperately get rid of this offseason, but after the season he put together in 2021, you may be able to get a good return of value out of him in a trade.

Other Notables: Ronald Jones II (UFA), Rob Gronkowski (UFA)

Teams Broken Down Already: Bears, Bengals, Bills, Broncos, Browns

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