After the NFL draft, there are quite a few backfields without a clear picture of who the workload is going to fall on. While it’s possible some backfields may continue as committees, more than likely, a few of them will have one guy receive a large volume of the work. That’s what I’m aiming to dive into in this series: who will emerge from the muddy backfields and cement their place as a fantasy value this season?
Luckily, JJ Zachariason has already put in the research to show us what to look for. Even though his research is primarily for redraft, we can apply it to dynasty as well. Breakout running backs typically aren’t handcuffs. They come from ambiguous backfields and are oftentimes drafted as the 2nd back from their team. Pass catchers have an easier route to breakout, as there is typically a three rush to one reception workload ratio. Most importantly, age doesn’t matter. Players in their 5th year are just as likely as rookies to break out in these situations.
Current Depth Chart
The Bucs returned Ronald Jones II and Ke’Shawn Vaughn. They re-signed Leonard Fournette to a one-year deal worth $3,250,000, which isn’t breaking the bank, but it’s substantially more than what he earned last season. The team also toyed around with adding James White before settling for Giovani Bernard after he was released from the Bengals. I think the depth chart plays out like this:
- Ronald Jones II
- Leonard Fournette
- Giovani Bernard
- Ke’Shawn Vaughn
Lead Back or Committee?
The Bucs have a lead back, it’s Ronald Jones. Jones was a good back in the 2020 season, finishing as RB16 with 61.5% of his games being an RB2 or higher performance. The problem is he can completely tank your week if he disappears. Bruce Arians sometimes gets upset with his play and benches him for large portions of the game (see. Jones’ snap percentages of 34, 24, 32, 36, and 36). Jones’ biggest holes remain in the passing game, both in protection and receiving.
Fournette and Jones had six games apiece where they played over 50% of the snaps. However, Fournette became “Playoff Lenny” in the 2020 postseason averaging 16 carries for 75 yards, 4.5 receptions for 37 receiving yards, and a touchdown per game (21.7 PPR points/game).
With Giovani Bernard coming in, he poses an immediate danger to all of the receiving work. While he hasn’t been much better than Jones or Fournette in the passing game, it’s clear the Bucs were looking for someone to take on that role. This hurts Fournette’s upside more than Jones’.
Who Do I Roster?
Ke’Shawn Vaughn is nothing. Although Arians hyped him up earlier in the offseason, bringing in Bernard is the death blow to his fantasy value. Gio shouldn’t do much more than contribute through the passing game, though Brady has shown he can make a running back fantasy-relevant through receptions alone. If you’re rostering either one of these guys, I assume you have a fairly deep bench.
While I don’t think Fournette is the guy because they were prepared to let him walk, what he did for this team in the playoffs shouldn’t be ignored. It could cause real problems for Ronald Jones. If you can get Fournette on the cheap side, he’s worth it simply because he can give you week-winning performances when given the opportunity.
If something were to happen and Jones goes down, Fournette could be a league-winner. Chances are a lot of contenders are trying to secure him as a “sleeper” though, so his value might not end up being worth it in the long run.
Realistically, it’s Ronald Jones’ job to lose. Letting Fournette test the free agency waters shows me that the team was ready to move forward with Jones standing alone in the backfield. While he doesn’t give you the receiving upside to be a league winner, he gives you fairly consistent play.
If I can get Ronald Jones for a 2nd round rookie pick, I’m making that move. He provides more immediate upside than either rookie back I’d be taking in the 2nd (Sermon/Carter). At the same time, if I can sell Ronald Jones for a 1st, I’d make that move as well. Don’t forget the Bucs had a game where they only ran the ball four times last season. The running back play in this offense can be volatile.
Thanks for reading! If you have any fantasy questions, reach out to me on Twitter @fantasyonefive, and be sure to check out the rest of my work on DFF!
