DFS With Doug: Week 2
Our resident DFS Dominator @DougHarrelson is back with his ~FREE~ Week 2 plays to earn you a little extra cheddar during Sunday’s slate.
DFS With Doug: Week 2 Read More »
gabriel davis
Comparing ADP, Dynasty to Redraft: AFC East
A much-overlooked aspect of Dynasty is value comparison, or comparing the values of Dynasty players to Redraft players and seeing which is worth more or less. You might be thinking “well, duh! Of course, older players are worth less in Dynasty than Redraft!” to which I agree. But what about Daniel Jones (QB – NYJ), who is only 25 years old? Should he be worth more in Redraft or Dynasty? Or how about Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DEN), who in Redraft has an ADP of WR10, but in Dynasty he’s valued as WR6. Which side more appropriately values players? In this series, which will take place over eight parts (one part for each division), I’ll be evaluating every skill position player on every team and giving my thoughts on their value, whether they are overvalued compared to Redraft or undervalued. Usually, the appropriate value will be somewhere in the middle.
To access this post, you must purchase a DFF Membership.
Comparing ADP, Dynasty to Redraft: AFC East Read More »
Keenan Allen: Buy or Sell
Since entering the league in 2013, Keenan Allen has been one of the most reliable wide receivers in football from a real and a fantasy football perspective. His savvy route-running and soft hands make him a trusted target for the various signal callers he has worked with, and a weekly starter for your dynasty team. He has spent his entire career up to this point with one team but the rumor mill suggests that he could become a cap casualty for the Los Angeles Chargers. This uncertainty going into the offseason has made his value difficult to gauge from a dynasty football perspective. Where there is uncertainty can be scary for some dynasty managers but clever managers know this can also create buying windows. So with the case of Keenan Allen, should we be buying? Or should we be selling? Let’s take a deeper look.
To access this post, you must purchase a DFF Membership.
Keenan Allen: Buy or Sell Read More »
The DFF Dynasty Start-Up Mock Draft: Part 3
As the dynasty league offseason is now in full swing, there are many upcoming NFL events to anticipate. Coming up on the calendar we have the likes of the NFL Scouting Combine, Free Agency, and the NFL Draft. In the fantasy football world, there is ample opportunity for value shifts for individual players and entire position groups. What better time to test the water than the end of February with a mock draft?
To access this post, you must purchase a DFF Membership.
The DFF Dynasty Start-Up Mock Draft: Part 3 Read More »
Overlooked Gems: NFC South Edition
In this continued offseason series, we will break down one player from each NFL team who is currently being overlooked. At the same time, that player could provide great depth/potential to a deep dynasty league roster. These players are worth picking up if they are in your free agency.
To access this post, you must purchase a DFF Membership.
Overlooked Gems: NFC South Edition Read More »
Thanksgiving Football Primer
Congrats on living to see another Thanksgiving! I’m sure most of you are already smelling delicious food that you’re sure to be exhausted of by Monday Night Football and agonizing over your Sleeper and DraftKings accounts. Although I won’t be helping you with leftovers, I can certainly help with those lineups and betting lines.
Thanksgiving Football Primer Read More »
NFL Fantasy Futures and Bold Bets
The start of the 2022 NFL season is merely days away, with teams wrapping up their final exhibition matchups. The electric hype of preseason is shifting to a fevered height as managers begin to paint a clearer picture of their projections. Now that we have an arsenal of information at our disposal, let’s dive into some bold predictions for the 2022 season with some potentially profitable betting lines should these outcomes ring true.
To access this post, you must purchase a DFF Membership.
NFL Fantasy Futures and Bold Bets Read More »
ShipChaser’s Top 10 Lessons From Poker To Apply In Fantasy Football #6-10
If you run really bad at poker one night, chances are you’ll do better the next night. Even within one long session, if you play your cards right, more times than not you will see variance begin to swing in your favor. In dynasty fantasy football, playing your cards right might mean it takes a couple of seasons before variance fully swings around. Even redraft is a remarkably slower timescale in terms of payout turnaround than poker, where you can get paid daily. Did I say ‘daily’? There is a reason daily FF has exploded and it has everything to do with variance and getting paid off quickly, not once every twelve months.
To access this post, you must purchase a DFF Membership.
ShipChaser’s Top 10 Lessons From Poker To Apply In Fantasy Football #6-10 Read More »
Dynasty Rookie Pick Hit Rates in FFPC: Part 2
Last summer I wrote about my historic FFPC dynasty rookie hit rates, and how those later picks in the third and fourth rounds typically hold at least a couple of gems. If you can find the space on the limited roster in this format, those later picks are worth scrapping for. I spend them just as easily. I never let a third-round pick get in the way of making a bigger deal that I like. Often I will add a third to my offer just to further entice my potential partner.
To access this post, you must purchase a DFF Membership.
Dynasty Rookie Pick Hit Rates in FFPC: Part 2 Read More »
Art of Arbitrage
In financial terms, arbitrage is a complicated concept that involves the simultaneous buying and selling of the same asset. In fantasy football, however, arbitrage has a simpler definition: get this guy instead of that guy. Typically, a fantasy football arbitrage involves two players with similar situations or ranges of outcome that are available at wildly different price points. For example, in 2021 best ball drafts, Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson went off the board around pick 55* while Jalen Hurts was available over 50 slots later, typically going around pick 109. All three QBs were prized for their rushing ability, and all three finished within one PPG. This means that Hurts was the better investment when considering the relative cost of each player.
To access this post, you must purchase a DFF Membership.
Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: Buffalo Bills
Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (offseason edition). Technically, it’s not the offseason quite yet for the NFL, but it is for us fantasy football fanatics. As a dynasty manager, you need to start preparing for the next fantasy season RIGHT NOW. A lot can change before next season, and we don’t know how final rosters will look come next September. The “offseason edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down going into the offseason. We will break down each NFL team. Today is all about the Buffalo Bills.
To access this post, you must purchase a DFF Membership.
Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: Buffalo Bills Read More »
Dynasty Market Sweep: Episode 2
Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight.
Dynasty Market Sweep: Episode 2 Read More »
Gabriel Davis: Gas or Brakes?
If Gabriel Davis wasn’t on your radar before last weekend, he sure is now. After his explosive performance in the AFC Divisional Round loss to the Chiefs, a football game that some are calling the best ever played, there has been no shortage of speculation and debate about this soon-to-be third-year WR from the University of Central Florida. What do I think of Davis going forward?
To access this post, you must purchase a DFF Membership.
Gabriel Davis: Gas or Brakes? Read More »
DFS Week 15 Recap
With a limited amount of options on the main slate, choosing the right players was that much more important in Week 15. Tyler Huntley was forced to step back into the starting role with Lamar Jackson out again this week and boy did he show up. Huntley led all quarterbacks in scoring with 35.9 DK points. His number one weapon was Mark Andrews, who was a slate breaker with 38.6 DK points. With that being said, let’s see how my weekly DFS picks played out!
To access this post, you must purchase a DFF Membership.
Put Me In, Coach!
As the 2021-2022 NFL season nears an inevitable end, there are several players we, as fantasy managers wish were given more opportunity. When the process pays off, we all feel unexplainable gratitude, and our favorite rookie/sophomore sleeper wakes up mid-season. When the player hits, we get to carry our heads high with righteousness, knowing deep-down we are all smarter than NFL scouts and GMs.
To access this post, you must purchase a DFF Membership.
FFPC Dynasty & Redraft Series: Week 13
The playoffs are here!! That’s right, in the Footballguys Players Championship and Main Event, the regular season ended in Week 12. The top four seeds advanced to the league playoffs that started Thursday night. Some prize money will be locked up this weekend and that is very exciting! There are still a couple of weeks left to go in Dynasty but the trade deadline has passed since my last article and there are lots of moves to go over.
To access this post, you must purchase a DFF Membership.
FFPC Dynasty & Redraft Series: Week 13 Read More »
DFF Redraft League: Drafting from the Twelve Spot
This week I drafted an 18-man roster in a 14-team 0.5 PPR staff redraft league for @DFF_Fantasy. It is also TE Premium, where they get a full 1.0 PPR. There are 11 starting positions, QB/2RB/2WR/TE/3FLEX/K/DEFplus seven bench spots. There are also bonus points for converted first downs, both on receptions and in the running game.
To access this post, you must purchase a DFF Membership.
DFF Redraft League: Drafting from the Twelve Spot Read More »
2021 Projections: Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo RB group is interesting. I gave Zack Moss more rushing work than Devin Singletary and gave Singletary more receiving work than Moss. Which matches the trend set when both were active in 2020. Unfortunately, this creates two RBs that I do not want. At first, I found it surprising that Singletary came out with more points than Moss because I thought Moss’s TD upside would trump the receiving upside. However, Singletary uses that receiving upside to achieve four receiving touchdowns. Both of these running backs ended up with seven total touchdowns, but Singletary had 30 more receptions which give him the point advantage. These RBs may not seem desirable, but at their respective ADPs, I could see myself owning some Singletary. He is currently being drafted after Zach Moss, so I would take advantage of this by fading Moss and scooping Singletary late.
To access this post, you must purchase a DFF Membership.
2021 Projections: Buffalo Bills Read More »
Bench Churning and Why You Should Be Doing It
In most dynasty leagues, once the season starts there isn’t always much to be done on the waiver wire. There’s always going to be players that breakout, but if your league has deep benches, they may already be rostered. Churning your bench is a relatively simple strategy that has benefits beyond just keeping you busy on waivers during the season.
To access this post, you must purchase a DFF Membership.
Bench Churning and Why You Should Be Doing It Read More »
The Myth of Vacated Targets
Every season teams lose valuable receiving options from the prior year, and every season fantasy managers daydream about the possibility of a random bench piece inheriting all that volume. While this narrative has played about favorably for a handful of players, in the grand scheme of the NFL, it is actually very rare. “Vacated Targets” is the snake oil of fantasy football. Don’t let yourself get duped.
The Myth of Vacated Targets Read More »