A much-overlooked aspect of Dynasty is value comparison, or comparing the values of Dynasty players to Redraft players and seeing which is worth more or less. You might be thinking “well, duh! Of course, older players are worth less in Dynasty than Redraft!” to which I agree. But what about Daniel Jones (QB – NYG), who is only 25 years old? Should he be worth more in Redraft or Dynasty? Or how about Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET), who in Redraft has an ADP of WR10, but in Dynasty he’s valued as WR6. Which side more appropriately values players? In this series, which will take place over eight parts (one part for each division), I’ll be evaluating every skill position player on every team and giving my thoughts on their value, whether they are overvalued compared to Redraft or undervalued. Usually, the appropriate value will be somewhere in the middle.
Some ground rules – so this series doesn’t take centuries, I’ll be evaluating one QB, one RB, one TE, and two WRs from each team, giving a total of 20 players every article. I’ll be posting their Redraft ADP (sourced from Underdog) and their Dynasty ADP (sourced from AdeikoADP, @Adeiko_FF on Twitter). Since there isn’t a large enough sample size of Superflex ADP, I’ll be evaluating by positional rank, not true ADP. For example, if I state that Patrick Mahomes’ ADP is QB1, that does not mean he is selected at the 1.01 in Redraft, that means he is the first QB taken off the board.
I’ll then give my pick – whether the player’s value lies closer to his Redraft ADP, his Dynasty ADP, or somewhere in the middle.
Let’s continue.
Buffalo Bills
QB: Josh Allen
Redraft ADP: QB1
Dynasty ADP: QB2
- Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) is QB1, plain and simple. Aside from this fact, there is not much discrepancy here.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
RB: Damien Harris
Redraft ADP: RB36
Dynasty ADP: RB47
- I think Harris’ value lies closer to Redraft than Dynasty, as he’s taking over the Devin Singletary-esque (RB – HOU) role, but should see more goal-line work and rushing work in general than Singletary did as he’s a slightly bigger back. At the end of the day, his upside will always be capped by Josh Allen being the RB1 on the Bills.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
TE: Dalton Kincaid
Redraft ADP: TE8
Dynasty ADP: TE15
- Kincaid is an interesting prospect who was taken in the first round, something that’s very rare in the NFL. You can read more about him as a prospect here in this DFF article by Chris Museezer (@force_fantasy) so I’ll keep it short – I’m all-in at price.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR1: Stefon Diggs
Redraft ADP: WR5
Dynasty ADP: WR13
- As long as Diggs is playing with Josh Allen, he’s going to put up fantasy points. However, he’s nearing 30 years old, so it’s obvious why his value in Dynasty is lower than in Redraft.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR2: Gabe Davis
Redraft ADP: WR39
Dynasty ADP: WR42
- We’ve known Davis is bad for two years now. Sell for whatever you can.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
New England Patriots
QB: Mac Jones
Redraft ADP: QB31
Dynasty ADP: QB28
- Mac Jones isn’t an interesting player because he’s probably not good at football and he doesn’t rush. He’s priced accurately, as I doubt he’ll ever be more relevant than a low-end QB2.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
Redraft ADP: RB11
Dynasty ADP: RB13
- This is a classic example of people being a little too ageist while playing Dynasty. Rhamondre had the 4th highest target share in the NFL last season and his biggest threat to volume was traded to the Bills. Along with that, the Patriots didn’t add another RB in the draft. I’m buying Rhamondre at price as often as I can.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
TE: Hunter Henry
Redraft ADP: TE35
Dynasty ADP: Unlisted
- Roster clogger. Sell or drop.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR1: Juju Smith-Schuster
Redraft ADP: WR51
Dynasty ADP: WR50
- Not much to say about Juju, he’s been a declining asset since he came into the league with constantly decreasing YPRR year after year. It seems he was a product of Big Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown (WR – FA). He’s mostly a roster clogger at this point.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
WR2: Devante Parker
Redraft ADP: WR98
Dynasty ADP: Unlisted
- Roster clogger. Trade or drop.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
Miami Dolphins
QB: Tua Tagovailoa
Redraft ADP: QB11
Dynasty ADP: QB15
- Tua posted some amazing efficiency stats this past year, but even those couldn’t make up for the fact he’s a complete statue in the pocket with zero rushing upside. He is young and he’s certainly better in real life than in fantasy, so he’s priced as such. I’d rather have almost any player drafted around him over Tua.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
RB: Devon Achane
Redraft ADP: RB40
Dynasty ADP: RB29
- A gorgeous landing spot for Achane. His ADP is probably going to continue to rise, so at RB29 I’m in on him but at the end of the day, he is still a third-round RB, whose hit rates are a bit worse than RBs taken in the second round.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
TE: Durham Smythe
Redraft ADP: Unlisted
Dynasty ADP: Unlisted
- Roster clogger. Droppable.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
WR1: Tyreek Hill
Redraft ADP: WR3
Dynasty ADP: WR10
- Like Diggs, his price is solely due to age. I think he’s more undervalued than Diggs, however, as he is coming off one of the greatest WR seasons of recent memory, pacing for over 2000 yards until Tua was hurt. His value lies more in the middle of the two ADPs.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
WR2: Jaylen Waddle
Redraft ADP: WR11
Dynasty ADP: WR5
- I think Redraft has this one. Waddle is a great player, but he benefited from outlier efficiency in 2022 to finish as WR12 in PPG. He only posted a 21% TS and a 22% TPRR, not numbers we want to see from the fifth most valuable wide receiver in Dynasty.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
New York Jets
QB: Aaron Rodgers
Redraft ADP: QB14
Dynasty ADP: QB24
- I think his value lies somewhere in the middle here, but closer to Redraft. I’d rather have Rodgers’ points this year than someone like Jordan Love (QB – GB) or Kenny Pickett (QB – PIT), and he’ll probably provide the same amount of points as someone like Tua, but for five rounds cheaper. He’ll probably be a mid-range QB2 and sail off into the sunset in New York in 2 seasons. I think more than 2 more seasons are unlikely. Tom Brady is an extreme outlier, not the norm and Rodgers is going to be 40 this season.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
RB: Breece Hall
Redraft ADP: RB8
Dynasty ADP: RB2
- The only reason Breece is valued lower in Redraft than Dynasty is that he’s coming off of an ACL tear, however, most medical doctors I’ve seen (granted, these are Twitter doctors so take their words with a grain of salt) have said post-mid-season he should be back to full form. The data seems to support this as well. Because we don’t play the fantasy playoffs in week eight, there should be no reason to not draft Breece as the RB2 or RB3.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
TE: Tyler Conklin
Redraft ADP: TE29
Dynasty ADP: Unlisted
- Roster clogger. Droppable or trade for a fourth.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR1: Garrett Wilson
Redraft ADP: WR9
Dynasty ADP: WR5
- Before the Rodgers trade, I was worried about how much Wilson relied on volume to keep his counting stats as high as they were. After the Rodgers trade, that’s no longer a concern. His value is just about perfect where it is.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR2: Allen Lazard
Redraft ADP: WR53
Dynasty ADP: WR64
- Another roster clogger. This article is full of them! Try to trade for a late third if you can.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
Bonus: AFC North and South Rookies!
You can read my previous two articles by clicking the above links, but here’s a quick rapid reaction to the value of the rookies drafted to the two divisions. From now on, all the rookies will be included in the following articles.
Baltimore Ravens
WR2: Formerly: Devin Duvernay. Now: Zay Flowers
Redraft ADP: WR48
Dynasty ADP: WR28
- There are a lot of questions about this Ravens offense. Which wide receiver will demand the most targets and why is it going to be a tight end? How will new OC Todd Monken affect the passing volume of the offense? Is Zay Flowers even good? With all of this considered, and I didn’t love Flowers as a prospect nor do I love the landing spot, I don’t think the price tag is egregious for a round-one wide receiver. You can read more about Flowers here in this DFF article by Chris Museezer (@force_fantasy), but I think his value lies closer to Dynasty than Redraft for sure.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
Indianapolis Colts
QB: Formerly: Nobody. Now: Anthony Richardson
Redraft ADP: QB15
Dynasty ADP: QB10
- Richardson is the QB1 from the 2023 Draft class, but I think he’s slightly overpriced at QB10, as I’d rather have Kyler Murray (QB – ARZ) and Dak Prescott over him, both of whom his ADP is ahead of in Dynasty. Besides that, he should hold his value well going into year two, so if you choose to hold him, he’s a mostly stable asset with a lot of value insulation as all Round 1 quarterbacks are. I think his value is roughly in the middle here.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
Houston Texans
QB: Formerly: Nobody. Now: C.J. Stroud
Redraft ADP: QB24
Dynasty ADP: QB14
- I think the values in both formats make sense here. The Texans roster is sparse and Stroud’s projected fantasy points in year one look pretty horrendous. On the other hand, speaking to Dynasty, I think his value is perfect at QB14. Stroud has almost no rushing upside and again, the Texans look to be horrible for at least the next two seasons, as they lack a first-round pick in 2024 as well. I think the ADP lies closer to Dynasty than Redraft, but Stroud’s ceiling as a fantasy quarterback is someone like Dak Prescott with a much worse supporting cast. You can read more about Stroud here in this DFF article by Isaac Dirrim (@dirrim23).
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
Thanks so much for reading! For other informative Dynasty articles, make sure to stay tuned at Dynastyfootballfactory.com. If you liked this article, follow me on Twitter @716DFF, and the whole DFF team @DFF_Dynasty. Check out this thread for some other Dynasty tips, and click here for all of my other articles! Have an amazing day! Cheers!
