dynasty running backs

The Dynasty Wire: Week 3

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I’m certain you’re in need of a running back, like every dynasty manager in 2020. It’s a battle of attrition. But, never fear, there still may be a few useful players left on the waiver wire to plug in for a couple of weeks. Seattle Seahawks’ running back Travis Homer is one of those players. The Seahawks’ starting running back suffered a sprained knee in Sunday’s matchup against the Dallas Cowboys and will likely miss some time. Homer, along with Carlos Hyde, will work as a tandem to fill Carson’s shoes. Hyde is probably already owned, but that’s ok. Homer provides a higher upside for PPR leagues as he will be utilized in the passing game more often. 

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The Dynasty Wire: Week 2

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David Moore is perfect on the season. He’s received a total of six targets through Week 2 and caught every single one of them. He currently has a 100% catch rate and also scored an impressive touchdown against the Patriots top tier secondary in the Week 2 win. Moore won’t see a ton of targets all year long but with Russell Wilson throwing you the ball you don’t really need too many anyway. Wilson is so accurate and efficient even the fewest amount of targets are still valuable. Moore is on all my dynasty league waivers and seems like a no brainer addition with all the injuries around the league.

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Tarik Cohen Extension and the Bears’ Future

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Surprisingly, the Bears signed Tarik Cohen to a 3-year extension that grants him $17.25 million in new money. The Bears fully guaranteed Cohen $9.5 million with a possibility of $2.5 million in additional guarantees. Cohen’s deal looks similar to the contract that the Browns gave their backup/third-down back Kareem Hunt, although Hunt’s average annual salary is slightly higher.

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Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 2

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In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding. I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.

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The Dynasty Wire: Week 1

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Rookies generally don’t get much action early on in the season, especially rookie wide receivers drafted in the fifth round like Isaiah Mckenzie. Not only is he a rookie but he must compete against Stefon Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley for playing time. Yet, he still got it. McKenzie caught all of his three targets for 17 yards in his NFL debut. No, nothing eye-popping in the stats there but the fact that he received those opportunities already is all I need to know. I was surprised to find him on a number of waiver wires in my dynasty leagues.

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Darrel Williams

Darrel Williams: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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n Week 1, Darrel played 33% of the offensive snaps, compared to 67% for Edwards-Helaire. Most notably, Thompson didn’t play a single offensive snap, making it clear that Darrel is the direct backup to Edwards-Helaire. Unfortunately, Edwards-Helaire had 25 carries compared to only seven for Darrel, a larger split than most expected. I believed the Chiefs would ease Edwards-Helaire into the starter’s role at the beginning of the season, but they handed him a full workload from Day 1.

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Brian Hill

Brian Hill: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Like most deep dynasty stashes, I wouldn’t recommend trading for Hill. He could even be on waiver wires in some leagues, as Smith carries more name recognition than Hill. If you can grab Hill as a throw-in as part of a larger deal or for free, he’s likely my favorite stash right now. Gurley carries such a high injury risk, and Hill’s path to relevant touches is clear.

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#TomBomb: Los Angeles Chargers

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Is there a more underappreciated WR in the league than Keenan Allen? As far as Old Tom is concerned, that answer is a resounding no. Now, please understand, I’m not saying there aren’t other stud WRs who are also treated poorly, in the fantasy community. What I’m saying is that when you attempt to marry the disrespect with the stat-production, Mr. Keenan takes the cake, in Old Tom’s eyes. One reason, the main reason really, I believe Allen seems to have a tough time knocking off the negative vibes, stems from his year two regression and the following two injury-riddled campaigns. The final straw, unfortunately for many, was the torn ACL suffered in Week 1’s contest back in 2016. What that did was it gave Allen the all so important “injury-prone” tag, that found its justification in the reality of 25 missed games over the course of his team’s previous 34 contests. Ouch! (pun intended)

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Boston Scott

Boston Scott: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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For dynasty leagues, Scott presents an excellent cheap buy at the running back position. In leagues with two mandatory running back starters, I would suggest accumulating players like Scott, Tarik Cohen, and the like, as they come far cheaper than workhorse backs. Scott will be an excellent PPR asset, and receiving backs tend to have longer careers. Just look at Scott’s predecessor, Sproles, for example.

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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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I often hear dynasty analysts say that you should always try to trade the top overall dynasty asset because they have nowhere to go but down. However, I wouldn’t recommend trading McCaffrey or even attempting to do so. Like I mentioned earlier, I think that McCaffrey is an outlier, and he can continue to produce high-end RB1 numbers in 2020 and beyond.

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Dynasty Story: Devin Singletary

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In a dynasty story, I’ll look at a single player and how his value has fluctuated over time, starting from their college profile. I’ll factor in his NFL stats and generally discuss what he did in each of his NFL seasons. Then, I’ll look at his 2020 prospects before wrapping it up with a final recommendation and dynasty strategy.  Today, it’s time for a deep dive into Devin Singletary. Let’s jump right in!

Today, it’s time for a deep dive into Dante Pettis. Is there any hope for a revival in his value, or is Pettis done? Let’s jump right in!

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Vegas Receivers Smart Bet

#TomBomb: Las Vegas Raiders

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You know, it’s funny. I remember lounging in my La-Z-Boy recliner almost one year ago, to the day, and seeing Darren Waller’s name amongst 2020s predicted top 10 TE’s, by some of the very best in the industry. My initial reaction was to scoop him up, wherever possible. After this happened though, I immediately found myself wanting to trade him for a lofty return. However, bad luck hit when I found myself as the lone believer, in most of my leagues. Eventually, I concluded that Waller was just another dart throw and I wanted to invest in a much higher-ceilinged asset. Oh, the folly of man. Well, as luck would have it, Mr. Waller not only lived up to his lofty expectations, he surpassed them by clocking in as your 2019 TE3 (PPR). 

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#TomBomb: Kansas City Chiefs

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Yeah, I knew out of the gate that this was going to be a tough sell to my readers. The very fact I can place so many expert’s 1.01 rookie selection as my top “buy-low” option is probably nothing short of asinine. That’s fair. After all, Old Tom hasn’t been himself since the Stock Exchange Crash of 1873. Regardless, here it is. If you believe the hype… and spoiler Old Tom believes the hype… you also have bought into the prediction that CEH is going to find himself as a top-5 RB in fantasy football very, very soon. 

I will just make this subjective take as simple as I can. Andy Reid wants another Brian Westbrook/Shady McCoy figure in his backfield. We already know how potent this offense is with the RB position void of a true superstar-talent. At this point, this organization had the luxury of drafting for want as opposed to need, and boy oh boy did they ever take full advantage. With a QB like Patrick Mahomes, who has the ability to hide so many flaws with his scrambling ability, this Kansas City Chiefs offense is entirely a Madden-like construction of talent, and it’s just not fair.

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Leonard Fournette Rapid Reaction

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Today, we had some stunning dynasty news when the Jaguars released Leonard Fournette. I’ll break down the dynasty and 2020 impact on all related assets in this rapid reaction piece. I’ve written about Fournette many times throughout the offseason, most recently in a free dynasty profile. In that article, I had the prescient take not to wait on the season to open to sell Fournette. At the time, I believed he would lose significant work to backups Ryquell Armstead and Chris Thompson, even though I didn’t predict an outright release.  I also noted that the Jaguars tried to trade Fournette throughout the offseason, and they didn’t want him on their team. They declined his fifth-year option, and I expected him to be on a new team in 2021. I have never thought of Fournette as a talented running back, so I thought he’d have little market as a free agent. Now, Fournette hits the free agency market a year earlier than I thought. Once again, if the Jaguars couldn’t trade Fournette for any value, I don’t think he has much interest from other teams. Fournette isn’t an incredibly talented running back, but he deserves to have a job in the NFL.

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#TomBomb: Tennessee Titans

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The nice thing about some of these takes is that they simply write themselves. Now, I’m sure you’re wondering why in the world I’ve placed a 26-year old RB who has logged 804 professional carries, in four years, as my #1 Tennessee Titans buy-low dynasty asset. That’s fair. However, if that’s the case, then you just simply don’t know Old Tom as well as I’d like. Over and over and over again I’ve continued to pound the table on the reality that my dynasty philosophy is much more win-now oriented than most. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not oblivious to the future and what that entails. But, I will also be damned if I’m ever going to enter a season removed from the possibility of hoisting that championship trophy.

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Raheem Mostert: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Raheem Mostert should be atop all of the “sell high” lists across the industry. His current ADP alone is a sign to test the market. Reports indicate Jerick McKinnon is healthy and back in the fold while Tevin Coleman still looms in the shadows. I personally want no part of this backfield. A 49er’s running back played more than 70% of the offensive snaps just once last year. Let’s not forget who Kyle Shanahan is and how he utilizes running backs. Remember Jeff Wilson scored two touchdowns in Week 1 and was “the guy”. Mostert had just a 32.2% opportunity share (total team running back carries plus targets) in 2019. Shanahan runs a running back by committee offense and that isn’t about to change for the Journeyman Raheem Mostert in 2020.

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Le'Veon Bell Dynasty Profile

Le’Veon Bell: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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It’s been trying times for Le’Veon Bell owners over the last few years. Not only did he hold out the entire 2018 season due to contract disputes but he then signed with the New York Jets in 2019 and was quickly accursed with the Adam Gase hex. 2019 was Bell’s first year under four yards-per-carry since his rookie season (2013) and the lowest target total since he was injured in 2015. He received his lowest carry total (245) since his rookie season, when healthy. Bell finished with 78 targets but if you watched any Jets games you know he was underutilized in the passing attack. Especially considering the lack of short target weapons other than Jamison Crowder. Bell scored just three rushing touchdowns and still finished as the RB16 in PPR leagues last year despite being hindered by the coaching staff and lack of talent surrounding him. Missing the entire 2018 season likely also affected his performance but I’d expect him to be fully reacclimated going forward. 

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#TomBomb: Indianapolis Colts

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One of the best moves any dynasty GM can make is to capitalize on rough rookie campaigns. This belief is heightened when said campaigns are derailed by injury, as opposed to simply production. Enter one Parris Campbell. With a 97th-percentile Speed and Burst Score coupled with a 100th-percentile 40-yard-dash time, Mr. Campbell is simply a really fast young man. When the Indianapolis Colts drafted this Ohio State burner with the 59th overall selection, in the 2019 NFL draft, they did so with the intention that he would soon replace TY Hilton as the team’s WR1. In my mind, I’m not sure anything has changed on that front.

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Redraft Best Ball Primer

#TomBomb: Houston Texans

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Any individual who is only able to participate in 66% of their team’s contests, across a four-year-span, is normally one I believe I’d try to steer clear of when assembling my roster. However, with the departure of DeAndre Hopkins and his 150 targets, Old Tom is fully on board with any and all Will Fuller hype. For clarification, I’m not about to wager the farm for this stance but I’d contemplate the chicken coop. The positive here, though, is that I’d venture to say most Fuller-owners don’t feel as strongly about #15 as Old Tom. Can you say discount? If the reports out of the Texans’ camp are true, and Fuller has added both muscle and speed, I’m just not sure I can start to fathom what his upside becomes in 2020 and beyond. 

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