Dyami Brown

Tevin Coleman

Week 6 Dynasty Waiver Wire

Hello DFF members, my name is Chris, and I will be writing the weekly dynasty waiver adds piece this year. In this article I will be writing about players that I feel should be owned in much higher quantities in your dynasty leagues. I will try to stick to low ownership percentages, around 30% or less, but if there is a guy above that, who I think should be owned significantly more I will include them as well. I will be focusing on a 12-team, full PPR set-up for these articles but the players I am choosing should apply in 10-team leagues as well. Without further ado let’s get into the waiver adds.

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Josh Downs: 2022 Devy Profile

Josh Downs was a four-star prospect out of Suwanee, Georgia who put together 187 receptions for 3,019 yards and 32 TDs over his final three high school football seasons. He starred both on the football field and the track, as he finished third in the state in triple jump and fourth in the state in long jump before giving up track to focus on football. Downs comes from a pedigree as well. His father was an RB in the NFL after playing at North Carolina State. Furthermore, his younger brother Caleb is ranked as the number one Safety in the nation and just committed to Alabama for the 2023 season.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: Washington Commanders

Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (offseason edition). The off-season madness is upon us, as teams prepare for free agency and the NFL Draft. Meanwhile, we as dynasty managers need to be preparing as well. Who are we going to target in rookie drafts? Who are we going to go out and trade for? Who are we willing to give up in return? Will you go all in this season to bring home a championship? Or should you go young and prepare for the future? There’s so much to think about before September. The “off-season edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down as we head into free agency and draft season. We will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the new-named Washington Commanders. 

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NFL Combine: “Does Size Matter?” Wide Receiver Edition

Every off-season the Combine comes and Twitter is ablaze with all of the size narratives. “If he’s short I’m not drafting him.” “If his BMI is too low I’m not drafting him.” “I don’t care what their size is, if they produce I like them.” “Size doesn’t matter!” “Size DOES matter!” What we do not see during this time is much real evidence with actual context. We are just given narratives or one-off examples of outliers. “Cooper Kupp ran a 4.65 and he just had the best WR season ever, 40 times don’t matter.” “DeVonta Smith has a BMI of 22.5 but he won the Heisman, I’m drafting him.” Today, my goal is not to fight for one side or the other. It is to look at the real numbers, with an unbiased eye and determine if these NFL combine metrics matter for fantasy football.

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Rookie Stock Report: Week 4

The Chuba Hubbard lottery ticket has finally hit, and it’s time for non-CMC owners to cash in while they can. Yes, you need to cash in. Hubbard doesn’t have great vision and doesn’t have the offensive line to overcome that major flaw. Hubbard isn’t anywhere near the talent of Christian McCaffrey and desperate owners competing would more than likely pay a second-round that could turn into an actual starter.

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Rookie Stock Report: Week 3

Elijah Mitchell is RB1 in San Francisco if he’s healthy. Sermon didn’t enter the game until Mitchell left it with a shoulder injury, then he left with a concussion. The entire offense struggled against an Eagles’ defense that looks legitimate against the run once again, so the 17 carries with limited efficiency are still encouraging to see. Mitchell will be a must-start in all formats while healthy until Sermon does enough to take over, or Jeff Wilson comes back to take the starting role. Most coaches stick with the younger hot hands over veterans back from injury.

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Rookie Stock Report: Week 2

Nothing has changed for Justin Fields since last week. He got his own package to get a few plays just like Trey Lance, and completed two for two passing for 10 yards, and running it in for his first real touchdown. The current Bears starter still looks like a competent backup and not the guy you want starting when you’re an HC on the hot seat. Chicago’s rushing attack looks fantastic and will relieve pressure off the rookie once he takes the reins. I can’t wait to see more RPO play-calls with him and David Montgomery. The time for Fields to start is any day now, so buy now before he gets even more expensive than he is.

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Rookie Stock Report: Week 1

Wilson has looked confident and in control the entire preseason and has a clear rapport with expected WR1 Corey Davis. He’s flashed not only the ability to make every throw but the savvy to know when to make the throw. I expect him to have lots of support with this running game straight from the Shanahan coaching tree, and we haven’t yet seen the explosive playmaking from Elijah Moore in a real game. Wilson has a blend of underrated mobility and Rodgers-Esque arm talent that can make him every bit worth the draft capital. I’m buying into the fact that the Jets want to change the culture and want pieces of this team before they boom next season.

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Dynasty Rookie Pick Hit Rates in FFPC

Most rookie drafts are done by now, though there may still be a few going on. If you are reading this and you still have some late-round draft picks for this year, don’t give them up just yet! You may think they are worthless or that you don’t have room on your roster for these assets, but there can and are league winners to be found in the third round or later of rookie drafts.

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Dynasty Debates: Derrick Henry Buy or Sell

Derrick Henry is the starting running back for the Tennessee Titans, and he may be the most polarizing single player in fantasy football right now. The 27-year-old, sixth-year back out of Alabama is currently being valued by some as an elite fantasy running back, but many others are selling now projecting his market value to plummet due to his age. The Titans have Henry under contract through the 2023 season for approximately $12M per year. However, the Titans do have a potential out following the 2021 season where they would take on only a $6M dead cap hit that they may prorate over two seasons. The Titans had considerable offensive gains when they A) enabled Arthur Smith to call plays for the offensive unit, B) named Ryan Tannehill as the starting quarterback, and C) drafted A.J. Brown to become the new Alpha wide receiver.

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Antonio Gibson: Is the Sky the Limit or is the Limit the Sky?

Would you believe it if I told you that Antonio Gibson, who played mostly wide receiver (WR) in college, tallied 16.2 carries and targets per game in the first 11 games of his pro football career at running back (RB)? After blowing up in Week 12 for 20/115/3, along with five receptions on seven targets, he was hurt early in the next game and missed two weeks. He then came back and received a large share of the workload again, but he was hobbled a bit by the injury and indeed it has lingered into the offseason, somewhat unexpectedly. What are his prospects for 2021, and how do they compare to the rest of the 2020 RB class and other similar ranked veteran RBs?

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2021 Rookie Pass Catcher Comparison: Part 2

In this series, we are going to do a deep dive into the top 2021 NFL Draft Class’s wide receivers, and see who they compare to historically. We are going to build them out from the standpoint of their physical acumen, their athletic abilities, and then bring it full circle by looking into their college production. Combining these three components we will settle on a final comparison that I believe most accurately outlines each player’s potential range of outcomes in the NFL. We will count down the top-15 pass-catchers with their comparable players as our countdown to the NFL Draft on Thursday, April 29th. 

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Sam Howell-UNC

Sam Howell: 2021 Devy Profile

At the time of writing, betting odds place Sam Howell as one of the top five players most likely to win the 2022 Heisman Trophy. With the departure of teammates Javonte Williams, Michael Carter, and Dyami Brown, the Tarheel offense faces an uphill battle. If Howell is able to put up similar numbers after losing several heavy hitters to the NFL, it will set a lot of people at ease that it was talent and not merely the situation that led to Howell’s success.

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Navigating Your Rookie Draft: 2021 Wide Receivers

Wide receiver is the position in which analysts have the most different inputs for analyzing prospects. This is because it is by far the hardest position to analyze, whether that be grinding film or navigating through advanced metrics. This is because the college game for wide receivers is so drastically different than how the position is played in the NFL. Wide receivers have less room to operate, they are hit at the line of scrimmage, and they are playing against more skilled and more athletic defenders than they ever have. In this segment, we will be exploring historical hit rates with draft capital and age as the only two components.

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