Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: Washington Commanders

Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (off-season edition). The offseason madness is upon us, as teams prepare for free agency and the NFL Draft. Meanwhile, we as dynasty managers need to be preparing as well. Who are we going to target in rookie drafts? Who are we going to go out and trade for? Who are we willing to give up in return? Will you go all in this season to bring home a championship? Or should you go young and prepare for the future? There’s so much to think about before September. The “off-season edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down as we head into free agency and draft season. We will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the new-named Washington Commanders. 

STOCK UP – JARET PATTERSON

Are we totally convinced Antonio Gibson is the guy in Washington? Is J.D. McKissic on his way out? Is Jaret Patterson ready for an increased role? These are some of the questions Washington and Ron Rivera are thinking about this offseason. Although we’ve heard speculations that Washington believes Gibson can mold himself into a Christian McCaffrey type of player, we have yet to see the full picture. McKissic has been such a great receiver out of the backfield the past two seasons (123 receptions in 27 games), and that’s ruined Gibson’s chances of taking the next step. Now at the age of 28 and looking for a pay increase, McKissic may walk in free agency, as the Commanders are still in rebuild mode. This increases Gibson’s stock, but it also makes Patterson a must-roster player in dynasty leagues, as long as Washington avoids bringing in better talent. My guess is that they avoid paying the running back position so that they can bolster some weaknesses at other spots. 

So let’s get into what Patterson brings to the table as a backup to Gibson. First of all, he will more than likely see a smaller role in the receiving game than what McKissic had. Expect the targets McKissic received to sprinkle out to Gibson, Patterson, and some of the other pass-catchers on the team. It would be hard to imagine Patterson drawing in four to five targets per game, but a solid one or two should be expected. He’s not known as a great pass-catcher. In fact, he hauled in zero receptions during his final season in college at Buffalo University. But in the final two games of the 2021 season, he hauled in all seven of his targets for 55 yards. In pure rushing terms, he’s capable of being productive. His 3.9 yards per attempt didn’t paint the full picture during his rookie campaign. During Weeks 14-18, he accumulated 160 rushing yards while averaging just under 4.6 yards per attempt. In his lone start in Week 16, Patterson rushed for 57 yards, scored a rushing touchdown, hauled in five receptions for 41 yards, and finished as the RB11 in PPR leagues. Given that Gibson has played a lot of games hurt through his first two seasons, rostering his back up (possibly Patterson) is a must in dynasty leagues. Especially if that backup is a 22-year old who hasn’t taken many hits in his professional career yet.  

Other Notables: Antonio Gibson, John Bates

STOCK DOWN – CURTIS SAMUEL

The playmaking capability is there. It started with Samuel playing for Rivera in Carolina. He was once a second-round pick back in 2017, and it took him some time to flourish at the pro level. But once he did, he was exciting. His first fantasy-relevant season came back in 2019 (his final season under Rivera). He drew in a whopping 105 targets, but only managed to haul in 51 percent of them (54 receptions). His 627 receiving yards weren’t all that impressive, but he managed to rush for 130 yards and combined for seven touchdowns. Those numbers were good enough to land him as the WR36 in PPR formats. The next season is when he really took off, as he hauled in 77 of his 97 targets for 851 yards and three touchdowns. He was even more involved in the running game under his new HC Matt Rhule. Samuel rushed for 200 yards on 41 attempts, as he found the endzone twice as a rusher and finished as the WR24. 

So why is his dynasty stock falling as we head into 2022? There are a couple of reasons for that. First of all, Samuel couldn’t avoid the injury bug in 2021, as he only suited up for five games for Washington. In those five games, it was clear that he was playing hurt, and he only received 13 touches on the season. The second reason is because of his team. Washington has a past of mediocre offenses, and some might think, “well, he’s reuniting with Rivera, and he’s going to have the same role he had in Carolina.” If you look at the timeline of his career, his best season came during his first and only season away from Rivera (2020). The third and final reason why his stock is going down is because of the talent and youth surrounding him. Obviously, Carson Wentz is the new signal-caller for the Commanders, and he has a great group of weapons surrounding him. 

Terry McLaurin has shown us that he’s capable of being a WR1 in this league. Dyami Brown is electric, and he’s going into his second season. Even if Samuel outplays Brown as the second-best wide receiver on this team, Washington still has a great tight end in Logan Thomas, and his backup John Bates expects to see an increased role in 2022. Oh yeah, and then there’s Gibson, who’s capable of leading this team in receptions each and every week. And if McKissic resigns, you know he’ll snatch 50-plus balls this season as well. Don’t be surprised if Washington also elects to go after someone in free agency/the draft. I’m not saying Samuel won’t be relevant in fantasy anymore, but the way we looked at him going into last season compared to how we look at him now is entirely different. If I had to choose between a second or third-round wide receiver in this year’s rookie draft and Samuel, I’m going with the youth no matter what. 

Other Notables: J.D. McKissic (UFA), Taylor Heinicke

Teams Broken Down Already: Bears, Bengals, Bills, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs, Colts

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