INTRO/METHODOLOGY
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding. Even in the playoffs, dynasty values still change weekly.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
RISERS
Akers became a workhorse in the Rams’ 30-20 victory over the Seahawks. Akers took 28 carries for 131 yards and a touchdown, and he added two receptions for 45 yards through the air. From Week 13 on, Akers has had at least 15 carries in every game he’s been healthy while exceeding 60% of snaps in each contest.
At this point, it’s clear the Rams view Akers as their lead back. They might use Darrell Henderson as a complementary piece in 2021, but Akers is the undisputed starter. Considering that Akers only turns 22 years old in June and carries second-round draft capital, he has to be a high-value dynasty asset.
I recently moved Akers up to my RB13, but even that ranking might be too low. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Derrick Henry, Miles Sanders, and Josh Jacobs sit just ahead of Akers. If Akers has another strong game next week, I could easily see him jumping to RB9 in front of all of those players.
Pittman had a solid game in the Colts’ 27-24 loss to the Bills. He caught five of his 10 targets for 90 yards, leading the Colts in targets and yards. Pittman served as the Colts’ clear alpha receiver, ahead of T.Y. Hilton and Zach Pascal. With 2019 second-rounder Parris Campbell on injured reserve, Pittman was the Colts’ only significant wide receiver in this playoff game.
Going into 2021, the Colts will still have Campbell on the roster and will likely retain restricted free-agent Pascal in a depth role. But, Hilton looked washed-up outside of a few good games, and he’s probably going to leave in free agency. Even if the Colts re-sign Hilton, there’s no doubt that Pittman is the Colts’ top receiver on their roster.
I also expect aging quarterback Philip Rivers to retire. While Rivers played well and led the Colts to an 11-5 record, he is a checkdown machine who benefits tight ends and running backs in the passing game. Almost any other quarterback would represent a fantasy upgrade for Pittman, especially if the Colts trade for someone like Carson Wentz or Matthew Stafford. I love Pittman’s fantasy prospects heading into 2021.
Harris is more of a cursory riser. He caught all seven of his targets for 83 yards in the Saints’ 21-9 victory over the Bears. He only finished fourth among Saints’ receivers in playing time, but he made an impact on the 29% of offensive snaps he saw.
I only mention Harris because he’s a younger player who recently turned 23 years old. The Saints signed him as a UDFA in 2019, and he’s been on their roster ever since. I’m not saying that Harris even has significant dynasty value, but I recommend adding him for free in deeper dynasty leagues. The Saints’ receiver depth chart is rather bare after star Michael Thomas.
FALLERS
I’m not going to lie; Wilson was a massive disappointment in the Wild Card round. He completed only 11 of his 27 passes in the Seahawks’ loss, throwing two touchdowns and an interception. While Wilson somewhat saved his fantasy stats with 50 rushing yards, there’s no doubt that his performance wasn’t what we all wanted to see.
The Seahawks fired offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer today, leaving them in flux when it comes to the coaching staff. Based on Wilson’s poor stretch to end 2020 and the offensive uncertainty in Seattle, he’s fallen to QB9 in my dynasty rankings. I also expect to have Trevor Lawrence and potentially Justin Fields ahead of him, which could drop him even further.
I know that Wilson is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL, but he didn’t get it done for fantasy owners this year. We need to stop overreacting to Wilson’s hot and cold fantasy stretches, as he seems to put together half a good season every year. It’s time to accept that the Seahawks’ offense does not revolve around “letting Russ cook,” whether we want it to or not.
Smith ended his 2020 season with a whimper, catching two of three targets for nine yards in the Titans’ 20-13 loss to the Ravens. He played 67% of snaps, but he lost playing time to Geoff Swaim, Anthony Firkser, and MyCole Pruitt throughout the game. Smith is a free agent after the 2020 season, and I think the Titans don’t see him as a valuable piece of their offense.
Honestly, I think we know what Smith represents at this point after four years. He’s a decent receiving tight end with lots of athleticism. But, he’s a situational player, and he shouldn’t command a massive target share. I expect him to sign elsewhere, although I guarantee I will not have a lot of interest in owning or acquiring him in dynasty leagues. Smith currently ranks as my TE15, at the bottom of a tier including Robert Tonyan, Logan Thomas, and Austin Hooper.
Going into this game, I thought that Trubisky had a chance to secure a starting job for the Bears in 2021. However, Trubisky had a bad performance, where he completed only 19/29 passes for 199 yards and a touchdown. He also threw a 19-yard touchdown on the game’s final play and accumulated a significant portion of his stats on that final meaningless drive in garbage time. When the game actually mattered, Trubisky did absolutely nothing to help the Bears win.
The Bears have Nick Foles on an underwater cap contract for 2021. They owe Foles $6.66 million in salary cap with a $14.3 million dead cap hit. Therefore, Foles will be on the Bears’ 2021 roster no matter what. The Bears will not pay over $7 million extra to make Foles go away when he’s a competent NFL backup quarterback.
With Foles’ salary, I doubt that the Bears will bother to retain Trubisky given his performance. They might as well assume that they will draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Even if they somehow strikeout, I guarantee that some free agent like Jameis Winston, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, or potentially even Trubisky himself will slip through free agency. But, the Bears must start over at the quarterback position. They won’t re-sign Trubisky unless they have no alternatives.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
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