Intro/Methodology
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
Risers
James Robinson
At this point, you cannot deny that Robinson has been a workhorse back. He played 90% of the snaps in Week 7, despite the Jaguars’ adding Devine Ozigbo from the injured reserve. Robinson took 22 carries for 119 yards and a touchdown, and he added four receptions for 18 yards and a touchdown. Robinson is currently the RB2 in PPR formats, averaging 19.1 PPG.
Therefore, I have moved Robinson into the range of a long-term dynasty asset. He’s currently my 51st overall dynasty player in 1QB dynasty rankings, coming in at RB19. It’s tough ever to value an undrafted free agent running back much higher than that, but we’ve never seen a player do what Robinson has done. Even Phillip Lindsay and Austin Ekeler were nowhere near Robinson’s production as a rookie.
However, until I see that the Jaguars treat Robinson as their workhorse based on their offseason transactions, I will have to rank Robinson behind some players with more draft capital or money invested. I still have D’Andre Swift, Ekeler, and even Antonio Gibson ranked ahead of Robinson. Either way, I moved Robinson up about 20 spots this week, so he’s undoubtedly a riser.
Christian Kirk
I think it’s time to take note of some changes in the Cardinals’ offense. The Cardinals have started using Kirk as their clear WR2 behind DeAndre Hopkins. Kirk has caught two touchdowns in each of the last two games, and he’s finally begun taking the heavy majority of snaps each week.
The Cardinals finally seem to have realized that Larry Fitzgerald is no longer a useful or productive option, and Kirk is their second-best receiving option behind Hopkins. Kirk already has five touchdowns this season, more than the three he’s had in each of his first two seasons. Kirk only turns 24 years old in November, so he has plenty of time to grow in dynasty value. I believe Kirk remains undervalued, and I love him as a buy-now target for either dynasty contenders or rebuilders.
Sterling Shepard
To me, Shepard is the Giants’ most valuable receiving weapon when he’s healthy and on the field. Outside of Week 2 versus the Bears, where he left with an injury, Shepard has received six or more targets in every game he’s played in 2019 and 2020. The Giants might trade Golden Tate and Evan Engram before the trade deadline, but Shepard is in their long-term plans. Shepard has three years left on his contract, and he’s virtually a lock to be on the Giants’ roster in 2021 due to his dead cap hit.
While Darius Slayton is a nice deep threat, Shepard is an excellent slot option, and he can also play outside. Either way, I expect Shepard to provide low-end WR3 value for the rest of this season and possibly 2021, assuming he can stay on the field. He’s the perfect cheap buy for a contender, especially since his Week 7 performance likely went under the radar. Shepard caught six of eight targets for 59 yards and a touchdown while playing 77% of snaps. Grab that type of production on your team before your league mates realize what Shepard is truly worth.
Harrison Bryant
Bryant is an up and coming tight end stud. He has consistently played ahead of David Njoku in 2020, whether Austin Hooper is in or out of the lineup. In Week 7, Hooper missed the game due to appendicitis, and Bryant led tight ends with 77% of the offensive snaps.
Bryant caught four of five targets for 56 yards and two touchdowns in the game. At this point, the Browns no longer have Odell Beckham Jr. after he tore his ACL, so I expect them to move Bryant into their clear starting lineup. The Browns seem to have no interest in involving Njoku, so Bryant will elevate to a starter across from Hooper, with Landry and Rashard Higgins playing as outside receivers.
Bryant will come off the field in 3-wide sets, but the Browns need to get him the ball more to make up for losing Beckham Jr. I expect Bryant to provide low-end TE2 value for the rest of 2020 and to continue to produce similar numbers behind Hooper for 2021 and 2022. Unfortunately, Bryant will require a Hooper injury to see significant fantasy value until the Browns can release Hooper after 2022.
However, tight ends take a long time to develop, so Bryant could be on the “Dallas Goedert” career path. Bryant is now a must-hold in all dynasty leagues, even if you have to wait multiple years for his production. He looks like a star.
Fallers
Ezekiel Elliott
It’s time to accept that Elliott no longer holds his dynasty value from before the 2020 season. Elliott is still the RB3 on the year, but he only averages 18.5 PPR points/game, seventh among running backs. Elliott only averages 4.1 YPC, a significant decline from 4.7 in 2018 and 2.5 in 2019.
The Cowboys’ offense has also completely collapsed after losing Dak Prescott, floundering under Andy Dalton. Now, Dalton suffered a concussion, and the Cowboys might have to start unproven rookie Ben DiNucci in Week 8. I’m not saying that Elliott is a significant faller, but he’s no longer in my top-3 dynasty assets. Elliott is now my RB8 and 10th overall player in 1QB leagues. We need to realize that Elliott isn’t a high-end RB1 without Prescott and that Elliott might have started to show some early signs of decline.
David Montgomery
Unlike Elliott, I’m not concerned that Montgomery has lost some of his talents. I believe that Montgomery was never a talented NFL running back in the first place. Montgomery looks putrid, despite massive volume, averaging 3.7 YPC in both his NFL seasons. He has produced more for fantasy football in 2020, mostly because the Bears lost scat-back Tarik Cohen to a torn ACL.
Montgomery has essentially duplicated his 2019 receiving totals, with almost identical targets, receptions, and yards through seven games to what he had in 16 games in 2019. However, Montgomery has shown me nothing that an average running back given his volume couldn’t do. There is no way that the Bears are satisfied with Montgomery as their workhorse back.
I expect them to involve Cohen more on passing downs next year, as they recently signed Cohen to a contract extension. I also believe that the Bears will bring in a real competitor for Montgomery’s early-down work. Montgomery is only a third-round pick, so the Bears can move on from him at any time. If Montgomery is the next Kerryon Johnson, I wouldn’t be even the least bit surprised. He’s a must-sell for me in dynasty leagues.
Cam Newton
A few weeks ago, I thought the Patriots looked like geniuses for signing Newton during the offseason. However, Newton’s play has majorly declined in recent weeks. Newton’s passing numbers are atrocious on the season, with two touchdowns to seven interceptions. In Week 7, Newton completed nine of 15 passes for 98 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions. Eventually, the Patriots benched Newton for Jarrett Stidham, although head coach Bill Belichick emphasized that Newton would remain the starter for Week 8.
Even though Newton will likely start the rest of the season for the Patriots, I’m not entirely confident that Newton will retain this job for 2021. He doesn’t have a contract for next season, and I doubt Newton finds a starting job elsewhere. At this time, I’ve had to drop Newton to my QB19 in dynasty superflex leagues, as he carries serious risk. If the Patriots continue to lose, Newton will keep falling in my rankings each week.
Kerryon Johnson
Johnson saw zero touches in Week 7, as D’Andre Swift and Adrian Peterson handled all of the backfield work. The Lions are done with Johnson, and I doubt he’s on the team in 2021. Perhaps another team will give Johnson a chance, but he’s only a backup in the NFL.
It’s incredible how far Johnson has fallen in just a year. Last year, he was a consensus top-50 dynasty asset. Now, he doesn’t even make my top-150 players in dynasty leagues. If anybody has any hope for Johnson, take a third-round rookie pick in a trade. He will never carry significant dynasty value again, so cash out before he loses his name value.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Previous Risers and Fallers: Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7
