Intro/Methodology
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
Risers
Brandon Aiyuk
Aiyuk had another strong game with Deebo Samuel out, putting up eight receptions on 11 targets for 91 yards and a touchdown. He is a clear starter in the 49ers’ offense, with or without Samuel, as he’s played 71% or more of the offensive snaps every week. Aiyuk has the second-most targets on the 49ers, behind only George Kittle. As Kittle will miss the rest of the season with a foot fracture, Aiyuk should step in as the top target, at least until Samuel returns.
At this point, I don’t see a significant difference between Aiyuk and Samuel, as the 49ers deploy them in similar ways. Both players can take jet sweeps, and both can play as receivers in all facets of their offense. I would still slightly prefer Samuel due to his superior body of work, but his injuries are a concern. They’re now very close in value, with Samuel at 66th overall and Aiyuk at 72nd overall in my 1QB dynasty rankings. However, I’m not sure I’d buy into Aiyuk at his higher price, as the 49ers want to run the ball, limiting his ceiling.
Zack Moss
Moss finally saw most of the Bills’ running back snaps in Week 8 with 53% compared to Devin Singletary’s 48%. Both players had 14 carries and one target, although Moss scored the Bills’ two touchdowns. I believe that Moss will see goal-line work, as the Bills have never wanted to use Singletary in that role.
Unfortunately, the Bills will always deploy Moss and Singletary in a committee. I think that Singletary is the overall better back, but Moss might see higher-value touches. Therefore, the two players come in back-to-back in my rankings. However, considering that I had Singletary significantly higher before this week, Moss is definitely a riser.
Travis Fulgham
Fulgham is undoubtedly the real deal. He’s only been a part of the Eagles’ offense since Week 4, but he’s quickly ascended the depth chart to become their star X receiver. From Week 5 on, Fulgham has played on 78% or more of offensive snaps in each game, and he’s seen 41 total targets. He’s caught 27 of those for 378 yards and three touchdowns.
At this point, there is no way the Eagles turn away from Fulgham back to someone like Alshon Jeffery, so Fulgham and Jalen Reagor will be the Eagles X/Z receiver pairing for the rest of 2020. I believe that Fulgham has played so well that he’s locked down a starting spot, at least to open 2021.
Fulgham currently falls at #100 in my 1QB dynasty rankings, ahead of receivers like Jamison Crowder, Mike Williams, and Michael Pittman. I know that seems a bit insane, but none of those players have shown what I’ve seen from Fulgham in these past five weeks. At some point, play on the field has to trump draft capital, and we’ve now reached that stage with Fulgham.
Corey Davis
Is time to buy into a fourth-year breakout for Davis? He’s played in five games this season, missing two contests due to COVID-19. He’s had at least five targets and three receptions in each of those games, and he’s averaging 5.8 receptions on 7.8 targets for 73.8 yards per game. Obviously, A.J. Brown is the Titans’ top receiving target, but Davis is serious competition for tight end Jonnu Smith as the secondary target.
However, both Davis and Smith will be unrestricted free agents after 2020. I expect the Titans to retain Smith, but I doubt they will be top bidders for Davis after declining his fifth-year option. Davis isn’t worth retaining on the franchise tag, so he will take his services elsewhere in 2021. But, if Davis keeps up his strong play, he will receive a contract as a WR2 on another team, hopefully with a higher-volume passing offense. He represents a WR4 for the rest of 2020 and an excellent speculative dynasty buy.
Fallers
Jonathan Taylor
It’s time to sound the panic alarm on Taylor. We can no longer assume that he will turn it around or that his college profile guarantees him NFL success. There are busts at the running back position every year, even from the best prospects. The Colts turned to Jordan Wilkins ahead of Taylor in Week 8, giving Wilkins 20 carries to Taylor’s 11. It was the exact opposite outcome I expected coming out of their Week 7 bye, where I thought they would turn Taylor into a real workhorse.
At this point, I have to drop Taylor outside of my dynasty startup first-round until he shows me why he belongs there. I’m extremely concerned that he won’t become a workhorse back and that Nyheim Hines will continue to steal passing-game work. Don’t hear what I’m not saying here. Don’t abandon Taylor or sell him for scraps. He’s probably a hold in dynasty leagues, but you have to bump his value down for now.
Noah Fant
I have significant concerns with Fant right now. He’s not becoming the alpha tight end target I had hoped, although he did see nine targets in Week 8. Fant has three or more receptions in every game he’s played, along with five or more targets.
However, rookie Albert Okwuegbunam has forced himself into more snaps. Okwuegbunam was inactive for most of the early season while Fant starred, but he saw playing time when Fant suffered an injury. But, the Broncos and Drew Lock decided that Okweugbunam was a valuable part of their offense, and they continued to involve him after Fant returned.
If Okwuegbunam is for real, Fant’s high-end upside will disappear. I’m not saying to panic on Fant, but you have to take this new information into account. He’s no longer a top-five dynasty tight end in my rankings.
Ronald Jones
Well, Bruce Arians struck again. After Jones fumbled on Monday night versus the Giants, Arians decided to bench Jones, moving forward with Leonard Fournette as his starting running back. At this point, we can ignore Jones’ stats for fantasy purposes. No matter how well he performs, Arians will turn to Fournette the second Jones makes a mistake. Who knows if Arians will get rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn more involved as well, further reducing Jones’ value?
I have no idea how to handle Jones moving forward. You can never trust him, but he will likely remain the Buccaneers’ nominal starter. If we ever see Fournette open a game, we can eliminate most of Jones’ value, but we haven’t seen that yet. There’s no way to sell Jones, and he’s not a buy-low either. Just hang on and hope for the best, but it doesn’t look good.
T.Y. Hilton
If I were writing my “Dead to Me” series right now, Hilton would be a prominent feature. He’s 100% done. In seven games, Hilton has caught 22 of 39 targets for 251 yards and no touchdowns. Despite injuries to both Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell, Hilton has made little to no impact on the Colts’ offense.
In Week 8, Hilton’s snaps plummeted to 36% with Zach Pascal, Marcus Johnson, and Pittman all playing ahead of him. Hilton did struggle with a groin injury, but it doesn’t matter. Each of those three players currently offers more to the Colts than Hilton. The Colts also like to run 12 personnel, as they have three viable tight ends in Trey Burton, Mo Alie-Cox, and Jack Doyle. Therefore, Hilton will see even fewer opportunities, as he loses playing time to the combination of Colts’ alternative weapons.
Hilton will turn 31 years old in November, and he’s an unrestricted free agent after 2020. There is zero chance the Colts re-sign him, and I expect him essentially to retire for our purposes after this year. Some other team might sign him, but he won’t play a fantasy-relevant role. Hilton has zero dynasty value, and I would sell for anything I could get, even a third-round rookie pick.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Previous Risers and Fallers: Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7, Week 8
