Intro/Methodology
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
Risers
Jonathan Taylor
It’s time to take Taylor’s breakout seriously. Over his past three games, Taylor has 55 carries for 331 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 6.02 YPC. However, he’s also contributed nine receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown, showing far more as a receiver than most expected coming out of Wisconsin.
Taylor is a workhorse back with immense talent, and he will only turn 22 years old in January. I believe the Colts will not re-sign Marlon Mack, and they will move forward with a backfield of Taylor, Nyheim Hines, and backup Jordan Wilkins. But, they no longer involve Wilkins in the offense except to give Taylor or Hines a breather. Therefore, I have full confidence in Taylor moving forward. He’s my dynasty RB5 and 10th overall player in 1QB leagues.
Cam Akers
Akers finally took full command of the Rams’ backfield in Week 14. In Week 13, Akers had 21 carries for 72 yards and a touchdown, but Darrell Henderson suffered an injury during that game. Therefore, fantasy owners weren’t 100% sure that Akers had taken over the backfield, especially since Akers only took 63% of the offensive snaps.
But, in Week 14, Akers had a whopping 29 carries for 171 yards and two receptions for 23 yards. He relegated Henderson and Malcolm Brown to the bench, as they totaled just two carries and one target between them. Akers played 79% of snaps, which is workhorse-level. Akers is even younger than Taylor, only turning 22 in June. Based on his increased usage and young age, I now have Akers as my dynasty RB15 and 29th overall player. If he continues his strong play, he’ll easily be in my second round of startups throughout the offseason.
Jalen Hurts
Hurts got the first start of his career in Week 14, and he won an impressive 24-21 victory over the Saints. He only completed 17 of 30 passes for 167 yards and a touchdown, but he added a ridiculous 18 carries for 106 yards. If Hurts will have that type of rushing floor, he will be at least a borderline QB1 in fantasy as long as he continues to start. Considering that Hurts won his first game, I expect Hurts to start for the rest of the season, no matter how he performs.
If Hurts looks as good as he did in Week 14 for the rest of 2020, I believe the Eagles will find some way to move on from Wentz this offseason. You cannot put in your young backup quarterback, have him succeed, and then go back to your previous starter. It doesn’t matter that the Eagles paid Wentz a boatload of money. NFL teams need to win games, and if Hurts gives the Eagles the best chance to win, he will be their starting quarterback.
Therefore, I think there’s a high chance that Hurts is the Eagles’ 2021 Week 1 starter. There’s still a risk, so I haven’t ranked him as if he’s already won that job. But, given his upside, I currently rank Hurts as my dynasty QB22, just behind Wentz at QB21. I think there is virtually zero chance that Wentz remains on the Eagles as Hurts’ backup, so at least dynasty owners will have clarity on this situation at some point during the offseason.
Lynn Bowden
Bowden received somewhat of a raw deal from the Raiders. They selected him in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft, and they declared that he was a running back. However, the Raiders already had Josh Jacobs as their workhorse, Devontae Booker as a backup, and Jalen Richard as a third-down player. Therefore, they decided to trade him to the Dolphins before the season.
However, Bowden had almost no chance to acclimate to the Dolphins’ scheme, especially given the messy offseason. Until Week 12, Bowden played essentially no relevant snaps, seeing no more than a 15% share in any game. But in Week 12, Bowden saw 31% of the offensive snaps, which rose to 44% in Week 13 and 71% in Week 14. In Week 14, Bowden led the Dolphins in targets, receptions, and yards, catching seven of nine targets for 82 yards. He played exclusively as a slot receiver outside of a couple of gadget plays.
The Dolphins have lost most of their running backs to either injury or COVID-19, and DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki, and Jakeem Grant will also likely miss Week 15. Therefore, Bowden will get every opportunity to display his unique skill set this week and for the rest of 2020. I’m not saying that Bowden will become a stud, but he’s a must-add if he’s still on your dynasty waiver-wire.
Fallers
Deebo Samuel
I usually avoid writing about injuries in my fallers, but I feel like Samuel warrants a discussion. Samuel re-injured his hamstring in Week 14, going out after just one carry for nine yards. He missed three games to start the season with a Jones fracture, three in the middle of the season with a hamstring injury, and now he’ll miss the rest of the season with this aggravation.
All told, Samuel will have played seven games in 2020, catching 33 of 44 targets for 391 yards and a touchdown. He also added eight carries for 26 yards. Samuel improved versus his 2019 numbers, averaging 4.7 receptions and 55.9 yards per game in 2020 compared to 3.8 receptions and 53.5 yards in 2019.
Brandon Aiyuk has surpassed Samuel on the 49ers, both for the team and in dynasty value. Aiyuk is more than two years younger than Samuel, and the 49ers spent a first-round pick on him compared to a second-rounder on Samuel. Aiyuk has an impressive 50 receptions on 81 targets for 660 yards and four touchdowns in 10 games played thus far in 2020.
Therefore, I’ve dropped Samuel far behind Aiyuk in my dynasty rankings. Aiyuk sits at WR24 and 49th overall, while Samuel is at WR37 and 69th overall. However, I’m concerned with both Aiyuk and Samuel long-term. George Kittle will return to the offense in 2021, and he will immediately become the top target on the team. I also believe the 49ers could acquire a high-profile receiver in either free agency or the NFL Draft, killing Aiyuk and Samuel’s value. Unfortunately, I don’t think Samuel will ever be a truly reliable fantasy receiver, which is why he’s dropped outside of my dynasty WR3 range.
Todd Gurley
Gurley is finished. I could leave it there, but I’ll give you a little bit of detail. In 2020, Gurley has 181 carries for 645 yards, averaging 3.6 YPC. He also hasn’t seen much receiving work, with a miserable 98 yards on 19 receptions. Gurley does have nine touchdowns, which is the only reason he has any fantasy value whatsoever.
Gurley missed Week 12 with a knee injury in his arthritic knee, although he’s been utterly ineffective after the Falcons’ Week 10 bye. In the three games he managed to play, he’s taken 37, 33, and 33% of offensive snaps, totaling a vomit-inducing 22 carries for 61 yards as well as four receptions for 19 yards. Ito Smith has equaled or exceeded Gurley’s touches in each of the last two weeks, and he’s performed far better as a runner.
No other team will make the horrific mistake that the Falcons made in giving Gurley a starting role when he becomes a free agent after 2020. His arthritic knee entirely hampers him, and I believe he should retire from the NFL. Whether he chooses to do so or not, Gurley’s days as a fantasy-relevant running back are over. I would far prefer to own other “washed-up” running backs like Leonard Fournette or David Johnson over taking a chance on Gurley.
Hayden Hurst
Speaking of Falcons’ disappointments, Hayden Hurst has to be high on that list besides Gurley. The Falcons traded a second-round pick for Hurst in the offseason, and he’s done nothing to live up to that price. On the season, Hurst has 43 receptions on 71 targets for 475 yards and three touchdowns, which inconceivably places him at TE15. However, he was a consensus top-10 TE in redraft ADP, and he’s only averaged 8.3 PPR points/game, putting him far lower in the fantasy pecking order.
Since the Falcons’ Week 10 bye, Hurst has totaled six receptions on 17 targets for 64 yards. Those stats are totally unacceptable for a high-priced receiving option, especially as Julio Jones has struggled with injuries during that period. Given Hurst’s poor performance, the Falcons will not exercise his fully-guaranteed 2022 fifth-year option, and he will enter 2021 on the last year of his rookie contract. Remember that Hurst was an older rookie, and he turns 28 years old in August. I’d get away from Hurst for anything I could get at this point.
Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella
I’m mostly including both of these players to emphasize that I fully expect the Cardinals to add at least one significant receiving weapon during the offseason if not two. The Cardinals drafted Kirk in the second round back in the 2018 NFL Draft, but he just hasn’t lived up to that price. This year, Kirk only has 38 receptions on 65 targets for 512 yards and six touchdowns, despite playing in 12 games.
After a massive game in Week 9, Kirk has just 15 catches in the last five games, failing to impress as the Cardinals’ WR2 behind DeAndre Hopkins. I have always thought that Kirk profiles as a slot receiver, but the Cardinals continue to waste playing time on Larry Fitzgerald in the slot. Kirk could still be a nice slot receiver for the Cardinals, but he should be their third receiver, not their WR2.
I think Fitzgerald will retire after 2020, and the Cardinals will either sign a superior veteran outside receiver or draft one in the first two rounds, pushing Kirk down the target list. Either way, Kirk will lose dynasty value during the offseason, and I’m pricing that drop in value right now. He’s someone I don’t want on my dynasty teams, especially considering that some still value him quite highly.
As for Isabella, the Cardinals declared him a healthy scratch this week. They’ve gotten nothing from the second-round pick they spent on him in 2019, and I think it’s time to give up. The Cardinals will bring in another receiver, which will signal the end of any hope for Isabella. I also doubt the Cardinals go back to their 4WR sets, as I think they might sign or trade for a receiving tight end like David Njoku or Hunter Henry. Isabella will be on dynasty waiver wires by August 2021.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Previous Risers and Fallers: Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7, Week 8, Week 9, Week 10, Week 11, Week 12, Week 13, Week 14
