Intro/Methodology
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
Risers
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
After the Chiefs signed Le’Veon Bell to complement Edwards-Helaire, some dynasty owners worried about Edwards-Helaire’s long-term value. He immediately silenced those concerns with a monster Week 6 performance, stomping the Bills 161 yards on 26 carries. Edwards-Helaire also added four receptions for eight yards, and he should have had a touchdown that didn’t count due to a penalty.
I expect Bell to come in and take some of the backfield work in the short-term, but Edwards-Helaire retains his high-end RB1 ceiling in this Chiefs’ offense. Let’s not forget that the Chiefs spent a first-round pick on Edwards-Helaire and made him the first running back off the board. He will play with Patrick Mahomes for his entire career, and that alone should give him fantasy value. Edwards-Helaire has stabilized as my dynasty RB5, behind only Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, and Saquon Barkley.
A.J. Brown
I think it’s clear that Brown had an injury during Week 1, leading to a subpar outing. He missed the next three games with knee swelling, lending credence to that hypothesis. Brown returned to the lineup in Week 5, and he immediately caught seven of nine targets for 82 yards and a touchdown.
Then, in Week 6, Brown returned to a full-time role, playing 84% of offensive snaps. He caught five of seven targets for 56 yards and two touchdowns, including a fantastic grab to tie the game with four seconds to go. While the Titans aren’t a high-volume offense, Ryan Tannehill is a solid quarterback, and Brown is the definition of an alpha WR1. I’ve put him right back where he was before his injury, 18th overall and WR8.
D’Andre Swift
Week 6 was the official Swift breakout game. He exploded for 116 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries. Coming out of the Week 5 bye, the Lions seemed to want to get Swift going in the offense, finally relegating Kerryon Johnson to the bench. They still gave 15 carries to Adrian Peterson, but it’s clear that Swift will be the lead back moving forward.
I hope you bought low on Swift in dynasty leagues because you can’t acquire him anymore. Swift is now in my top 30 players in 1QB leagues, and I love his prospects moving forward. Eventually, he should consolidate this backfield, and he only turns 22 years old in January. If you’re lucky enough to roster Swift, you have an up and coming stud on your team.
Jimmy Garoppolo
Garoppolo finally got things together in Week 6, throwing for 268 yards and three touchdowns in a must-win game versus the Rams. He removed any doubts that the 49ers would turn to C.J. Beathard or Nick Mullens over him this season after they temporarily benched him in Week 5. I believe that benching was due to Garoppolo’s high ankle sprain, not poor play. The 49ers were desperate for a win in Week 5, but they should have held Garoppolo out until Week 6.
However, Garoppolo looked fully healthy in this game, and he should present a low-end QB2 value moving forward. Of course, he carries little value in 1QB leagues, where you wouldn’t want to start him most weeks. But, in superflex leagues, I think Garoppolo has to fight to retain this job for 2021.
The 49ers can release him after 2020 for minimal dead cap, although the replacement would come through the NFL Draft or free agency, not from the roster. After this week, I think Garoppolo has a slightly better shot at retaining the starting job. It’s still up in the air, but this situation is high-stakes for superflex dynasty owners relying on Garoppolo.
Fallers
JuJu Smith-Schuster
It’s finally time to make a significant adjustment to Smith-Schuster’s dynasty value. I covered him in some detail in my AFC North Divisional Nuggets this week, but I wanted to highlight him here again. The Steelers are 5-0, and Smith-Schuster only has 194 receiving yards. He does have 23 receptions on 28 targets, but he’s not seeing any downfield targets. For some reason, the Steelers use Smith-Schuster in a short role, similar to a tight end or receiving running back.
As the Steelers are undefeated, they will not trade Smith-Schuster during the 2020 season. He provides them value on the field, even if he’s not valuable in our fantasy lineups. Smith-Schuster is nothing more than a volatile WR3 for the rest of 2020, and that might be too kind. I might prefer Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson over him, although I see all three players similarly. Plus, James Washington and Eric Ebron will continue to compete for targets.
Moving forward, Smith-Schuster will almost certainly play for another team in 2021. It’s difficult to speculate on his destination, but wide receivers usually struggle when changing teams. I think it’s clear that Smith-Schuster is not a dominant alpha receiver, as he’s struggled to produce without Antonio Brown. But, he had over 1,400 receiving yards in 2018. I don’t care about the situation, as nobody has that type of season in the NFL without extreme talent.
Therefore, I have Smith-Schuster as my 41st overall player in my 1QB dynasty rankings as my WR20. He will likely command a role similar to Jamison Crowder on his next NFL team as a target-dominant slot weapon. I think Smith-Schuster is more talented than Crowder, so if he’s also on a better offense, he should produce WR2 numbers in his next destination. However, if he remains in Pittsburgh after 2020, his dynasty value will plummet further.
Cam Akers
I already covered Akers as a dynasty faller once this season, but now it’s time to panic. Akers played one snap in the Rams’ Week 6 game versus the 49ers despite being fully healthy and available for the game. Darrell Henderson showed out as the starter, taking 14 carries for 88 yards. Malcolm Brown also had two carries for four yards, and he added three receptions for 18 yards.
At this point, Henderson is the Rams’ starting running back, and he’s done nothing to lose that job. We’re past the possibility that the Rams will bench a healthy and productive Henderson for Akers. Henderson was a third-round pick, so it’s not like he’s some irrelevant running back. The Rams always planned to involve him in the offense.
I think the Rams will eventually phase out the completely ineffective Brown and give Akers the second spot in the timeshare behind Henderson. But, it’s a timeshare, and it will be moving forward. Akers has dropped down to 59th overall in my 1QB dynasty rankings. He’s still RB19, but he won’t even hold that value if he has a few more bad games. Not every second-round pick becomes a workhorse starter, and Akers may never become one.
N’Keal Harry
Harry’s production this season has been utterly unacceptable for a first-round pick. Through five games, he has 18 receptions on 30 targets for 166 yards and a touchdown. However, 18 of those 30 targets came in the first two games. Since then, the Patriots have stopped throwing to him, and he put up a goose egg in Week 6 versus the Broncos.
Damiere Byrd has similar stats to Harry, and the Patriots have moved toward Byrd and away from Harry in recent weeks. The Patriots have no usable receiving tight ends, and Julian Edelman has struggled with injuries all season. Harry should have good numbers, but he doesn’t. It’s time to get out from under Harry for any significant return because his name isn’t going to carry dynasty value for much longer.
Mecole Hardman
I think I’ve realized what’s going on with Hardman. The Chiefs drafted him in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft when Tyreek Hill was under investigation for domestic violence and child abuse charges. At the time, they must’ve assumed that Hill wasn’t going to return, and they planned to use Hardman to replace Hill as their speedy receiver opposite Sammy Watkins.
However, once Hill returned to the field, the Chiefs never seemed to need Hardman. They handed Hill a contract extension before the 2019 season, and Hardman is only a backup. Even though Sammy Watkins missed Week 6 due to injury, Hardman only saw 40% of the offensive snaps. Demarcus Robinson played ahead of Hardman, and he slid into Watkins’ WR2 role over Hardman.
Hardman retains speculative value if Hill suffers an injury, but I think that’s all he’s truly worth. Even if the Chiefs move on from Watkins after 2020, they will replace him with someone else as their WR2, either in the NFL Draft or free agency. Hardman will never be more than a backup and gadget player, and it’s time to value him that way.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Previous Risers and Fallers: Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6
