Intro/Methodology
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
Risers
D.K. Metcalf
At this point, there’s no denying it. Metcalf is in consideration to be the dynasty WR1. He has 22 receptions on 39 targets for 496 yards and five touchdowns through only five games. Metcalf averages a stellar 12.7 yards/targets, and he has formed a dynamic duo with Seahawks’ quarterback Russell Wilson. While his teammate Tyler Lockett has also played well, Metcalf is the clear WR1 on the team and has the alpha receiver profile.
Therefore, I’ve moved Metcalf up to my dynasty WR3, behind only Michael Thomas and Davante Adams. Metcalf comes in at 11th overall in my dynasty rankings, making him a first-round startup pick. He’s only 22 years old, turning 23 in December, so he’s a young asset. Considering his age and quarterback situation, I have complete confidence in Metcalf as a cornerstone asset for years to come.
Chase Claypool
Claypool had a stellar game in Week 5. He scored four total touchdowns, one rushing and three receiving. Claypool led the Steelers in targets with 11, and he caught 11 of those for 110 yards. Notably, the Steelers also gave Claypool three rushing attempts, demonstrating that they want to involve him in the offense.
I don’t want to get too carried away from one game, though. Claypool had most of his success with teammate Diontae Johnson out, although he’s been a part of the offense all season. Even in his breakout game, he played as the Steelers’ fourth receiver behind Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and James Washington. Washington and Claypool have generally split the WR3 role behind Johnson and Smith-Schuster, but they’ve seen more action with Johnson out.
However, I believe the Steelers cannot put Claypool’s talent back on the bench. He’s far more dynamic than Washington, and the Steelers would benefit from having Claypool in their offense. Johnson is a complete outside receiver, Smith-Schuster excels in the slot, and Claypool is a physical threat. That trio of receivers, alongside tight end Eric Ebron, would be one of the league’s best receiving groups.
After his breakout game, I have Claypool just behind some other promising rookie receivers, Laviska Shenault and Tee Higgins. I liked those players far more coming into the NFL, and they’ve both played well. Therefore, Claypool settles in behind them, at 74th overall in my dynasty rankings. Claypool’s value could also spike if the Steelers decided not to re-sign Smith-Schuster in the offseason. He’s a clear riser right now.
Robby Anderson
Is Anderson the Panthers’ WR1 over D.J. Moore? Going into 2020, that wasn’t a possibility, but it sure seems like he is. Anderson leads Moore in all receiving categories through five games. Anderson has 36 receptions on 47 targets for 489 yards and a touchdown, while Moore only has 22 catches on 37 targets for 381 yards and a touchdown.
I never thought that the Panthers would focus their offense around a deep threat like Anderson with Teddy Bridgewater as their quarterback. However, they don’t only see Anderson as a deep threat. Anderson averages only 13.6 yards/reception compared to 17.2 for Moore. The Panthers seem to want to use Moore downfield and to use Anderson as their top receiver.
The entire Panthers’ offense funnels through Anderson, Moore, and the running back. Both Mike Davis and Christian McCaffrey have seen heavy targets, with Davis currently third on the team in targets behind Anderson and Moore. They’ve mostly sidelined tight end Ian Thomas and barely use Curtis Samuel, allowing Anderson and Moore to put up fantasy numbers.
I expected that Moore and McCaffrey would be the two featured targets, with Anderson, Samuel, and Thomas seeing scraps. But, that’s not the case. I think that Moore will turn it around, and eventually, Moore and Anderson will see similar volume and production. Even so, Anderson will be a WR2 for the rest of 2020, and he’s jumped almost 50 spots in my dynasty rankings. He likely doesn’t carry dynasty value equal to his production, so he’s a solid hold right now.
Myles Gaskin
The Dolphins declared Jordan Howard as a healthy scratch for Week 5, finally opening the door for Gaskin to take further work. Gaskin scored his first touchdown of the season on a one-yard run, demonstrating that Gaskin, not Matt Breida, would take over as the Dolphins’ goal-line back. He also led the Dolphins with 16 carries to Breida’s nine, and he caught all five of his targets for 34 yards.
Gaskin has also recorded an impressive snap share, playing 63-65% of snaps in four of five games and 75% in Week 3. Now, I expect the Dolphins to create a two-way split between Gaskin and Breida. Gaskin should assume goal-line work and dominate in the passing game while Breida sees change-of-pace work. Therefore, Gaskin is a borderline RB2 for the remainder of 2020.
In dynasty leagues, Gaskin isn’t likely to maintain a workhorse role in Miami long-term. He’s only a seventh-round pick, and the Dolphins have a lot of draft capital in 2021. However, I believe that Gaskin will carve out a role next season in a timeshare with whoever the Dolphins draft. Both Breida and Howard will be on different teams in 2021, but Gaskin has a cheap contract through 2022. Don’t bother trying to trade Gaskin because you won’t recoup fair value. Hold him and see what develops.
Fallers
D.J. Chark
Unfortunately, Chark has had a rough 2020 season thus far. He missed Week 3 with a chest injury, and now he suffered an ankle injury in Week 5. It’s unclear whether Chark will miss additional time, but the injury concerns are starting to add up.
Even in the four games Chark has played, he only has 20 targets, although he’s caught 18 of those for 220 yards and three touchdowns. Keelan Cole, Laviska Shenault, and even Chris Conley average more targets/game than Chark, but none have produced at Chark’s level. I had some concerns with Chark coming into 2020, as I don’t believe he’s truly suited to play as an alpha receiver in the NFL.
I haven’t completely quit on Chark, but I don’t see the WR1 upside anymore. Shenault seems to have equal talent, and he’s a far more versatile player. I also expect the Jaguars to add another wide receiver next season to play alongside Chark and Shenault, creating a dynamic receiver trio. Cole and Conley are fine players, but they shouldn’t see significant snaps in a real NFL offense. Now isn’t a good time to sell Chark, but dynasty owners should manage their expectations moving forward.
Zach Ertz
Unlike Chark, these next three players all seem to be dead in the water. Let’s start with Zach Ertz, who’s having a horrific 2020 season. Despite multiple injuries in the Eagles’ receiving corps, Ertz has done virtually nothing in 2020. He’s caught 20 of 35 targets for a miserable 145 yards and a touchdown.
Ertz currently averages 7.3 yards/reception, 4.1 yards/target, and a 57.1% catch rate, by far the lowest marks in his career. Plain and simple, Ertz looks awful out there. The Eagles and Ertz had a high-profile contract dispute before the season, and Ertz has done nothing to earn a new deal.
I can’t see the Eagles trading Ertz during the season because they have no one else to throw to, but Ertz will not be on this team in 2021. I have no confidence that Ertz will revive his career on another team, and he’s the ultimate falling knife in dynasty leagues. Don’t try to catch it because you’ll get hurt. Stay far away from Ertz because he could have similar value next year to what Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham has now.
A.J. Green
Speaking of washed-up players, Green is done in Cincinnati. Green’s effort during the Bengals’ Week 5 loss to the Ravens was utterly unacceptable. A sideline camera caught Green asking for a trade, and he obviously doesn’t want to be a part of the Bengals anymore. In 2020, Green has caught 14 of 34 targets for 118 yards and no touchdowns. I don’t have to be a fantasy analyst to tell you that those numbers suck.
Now, Green has a hamstring injury, which will likely sideline him for a few weeks. I expect that Green has played his final game as a member of the Bengals, as Green will be a free agent at the end of 2020. The Bengals are 1-3-1 and not a playoff contender, so it makes perfect sense for them to ship Green off to a different team, acquiring at least a late-round pick for him.
Unfortunately, I don’t expect a change of scenery to make Green into a competent NFL receiver again. He turned 32 years old in July, and I think Green is well past his usefulness as a fantasy asset. If you can still get a third-round rookie pick for Green, I might even consider trading him for that basement price. You might want to hold in case he does get traded, which could open a small selling window. But, I don’t think Green will ever carry significant dynasty value again.
Marvin Jones
Jones is a different case from Ertz and Green. I’m not entirely sure that Jones has lost much as a talent. He did turn 30 years old in March, but I can’t point to anything on the field that demonstrates a decline in Jones’ talent.
However, it doesn’t particularly matter. Even without Kenny Golladay in the first two games, Jones only has 19 targets through four weeks. He has caught 12 of those for 138 yards and a touchdown, but the Lions don’t seem to see Jones as their secondary receiving option anymore.
Golladay is their clear top target, as he’s had 15 targets in his two games. But, Danny Amendola surprisingly leads the Lions in targets with 21, and T.J. Hockenson is slightly behind with 20 targets. D’Andre Swift also has contributed in the passing game, with 13 receptions on 16 targets.
Jones is an unrestricted free agent after 2020, and I doubt he’s in the Lions’ future plans. They seem to want to build their passing offense around Golladay, Hockenson, and Swift, with everyone else as an afterthought. Jones will not provide WR3 value like many expected in 2020, which means he’s lost most of his dynasty value. He’s outside the top 150 players in my dynasty rankings.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
