Intro/Methodology
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
Risers
Diontae Johnson
Alright, it’s time to recognize that Diontae Johnson is the top receiver on the Steelers, not Juju Smith-Schuster. Johnson has played and completed seven games this season, and he’s had 10 or more targets in six of those contests. Over the past five weeks, Johnson has stayed healthy, and he has 34 receptions on 55 targets for 390 yards and three touchdowns. Those numbers would pace for 109 catches on 176 targets for 1,248 yards and 10 touchdowns over a full season.
I don’t want fantasy owners to take the wrong message here. I’m not saying that I hate either Smith-Schuster or rookie Chase Claypool. Both players have played well this season too, but Johnson is the clear alpha target. Smith-Schuster will be on another team after 2020, and Johnson will form a dynamic duo with Claypool. At this point, I have Johnson as my dynasty WR14, ahead of players like Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson, and Jerry Jeudy. Buy Johnson right now before it’s too late.
Corey Davis
We can’t ignore Davis’ production throughout the 2020 season. He’s played eight games so far, and he’s caught 39 of 55 targets for 549 yards and three touchdowns. Last season, Davis only had 43 catches and 601 yards in 15 games, so he’s on pace for a far superior season to 2019. Luckily for Davis, the Titans are a run-first team, and they likely won’t retain him for 2021, allowing him to find a better situation.
Last year, we saw players like Breshad Perriman and Robby Anderson earn free-agent contracts worth $8 million or more per year. Davis was a top-five draft pick, and I believe he’s a far more talented receiver than either Perriman or Anderson. Therefore, he should receive intense interest in free agency from WR-needy teams like the Packers. Davis is an excellent speculative buy, although he might be tough to buy considering his recent fantasy production.
Curtis Samuel
Samuel falls into the same group as Davis. Most dynasty owners wrote him off after a down 2019, but he’s increased his production in 2020. In Week 11, Samuel caught eight of 10 targets for 70 yards and a touchdown. Samuel has 49 receptions on 58 targets for 445 yards and three touchdowns for the season, putting him on pace for 78 receptions and 712 yards in 16 games.
While those aren’t massive numbers, Samuel currently shares targets with Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore, both of whom see more targets. The Panthers love to target their running back in the passing game, whether that’s Christian McCaffrey or Mike Davis. Samuel’s 84.5% catch rate is also insanely efficient, compared to his horrific 51.4% catch rate from 2019.
Given that the Panthers have Moore, Anderson, and McCaffrey under contract for 2021, I can’t imagine that they retain Samuel. However, I think Samuel has proved that he deserves a larger role in 2021 for another team. He turns only 25 years old in August, so his new team could see him as a valuable long-term piece. Buy Samuel now while he’s in a crowded offense, and you might reap the profits if he finds a better destination.
Taysom Hill
I’ll be honest here. I never expected the Saints to go with Hill as their starting quarterback at any point. I assumed that they would start Jameis Winston until we saw Hill take the team’s first snap on Sunday. Hill doesn’t strike me as a real quarterback, and Winston threw for 5,000 yards last season. Winston, not Hill, took Drew Brees’ place when he went down, and Teddy Bridgewater got the starting job last year over Hill when Brees suffered a thumb injury.
But, I can’t deny what happened in Week 11. Hill took 100% of offensive snaps while Winston saw no offensive role. Surprisingly, Hill completed 18/23 passes for 233 yards, showing chemistry with Michael Thomas. Hill also added 10 carries for 51 yards and two touchdowns, providing extreme rushing upside.
At this point, we have to take Hill’s long-term prospects seriously. The Saints owe Hill $16 million for 2021, with $11.1 million guaranteed. That’s starting quarterback money. I expect Brees to retire after 2020, so the Saints need a 2021 starter. I’m not entirely confident that Hill will be their starter, but it won’t be Winston. If you can still acquire Hill for a second-round rookie pick in superflex leagues, I would make that move right now, before it’s too late.
Fallers
Jarvis Landry
It’s time to recognize that Landry isn’t the high-end dynasty asset that he once was. In three games without Odell Beckham Jr., Landry has nine receptions on 18 targets for 104 yards and no touchdowns. I know that the Browns have played in terrible weather, but I still expect more from Landry.
In Week 11, Landry played fewer snaps than KhaDarel Hodge and Rashard Higgins, and he saw fewer targets, receptions, and yards than either player. I held onto hope for Landry throughout most of this season, but it’s now time to adjust his ranking. Landry now comes in at WR44 and 85th overall, a massive drop since last week. Honestly, I might still have Landry too high, considering that he turns 28 years old in a couple of days. If Beckham Jr. comes back healthy and remains on the Browns for 2021, Landry will plummet even further.
Mecole Hardman
Hardman belongs in the dynasty dumpster bin. There’s no other way to say it. The Chiefs obviously selected Hardman to directly replace Tyreek Hill when they believed that Hill would never play another NFL snap due to his off-field issues.
With Hill in the lineup, the Chiefs seem to have no use for Hardman. Hardman only saw 22% of offensive snaps in Week 11, even though Sammy Watkins wasn’t in the lineup. Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle significantly out-snapped Hardman and both saw more targets. If Hardman played for any other team, nobody would care about him whatsoever. Sell him based on Patrick Mahomes’ talent for whatever you can get because Hardman has zero value in dynasty leagues.
Carson Wentz
I’m done with any excuses for Wentz. There’s always a new excuse every week, and Wentz needs to find a way to overcome these issues. Wentz managed to throw two ugly interceptions, and he took five sacks in a 22-17 loss against the Browns. He looked awful in this game; there’s no other way to put it.
I believe that the Eagles need to take a look at Jalen Hurts. If they were in any other division, their 3-6-1 record would place them looking toward next season. But, in the NFC East, the Eagles lead the division somehow. Therefore, I don’t expect the Eagles to make a quarterback change, even though Wentz is likely the worst starting quarterback in the NFL right now. Somehow, Wentz has 14 interceptions and 10 fumbles this season, although he’s only lost four of those fumbles.
In superflex leagues, I still have Wentz as my QB16, but he’s dropped a tier. I now rank Wentz atop the sixth tier of quarterbacks, just ahead of players like Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, and Kirk Cousins. Wentz is no longer a high-end superflex asset, and if he doesn’t turn it around early in 2021, he won’t have a starting quarterback job for long.
Mark Ingram
I feel bad about listing Ingram in this section, as he recently went on the COVID-19 reserve list after testing positive for COVID-19. However, it’s important to note what happened to Ingram in Weeks 10 and 11 after returning from his ankle injury. In Week 10, Ingram played 26% of snaps, but he only saw five carries for five yards. Then, this week Ingram only participated in six total plays, taking two carries for two yards.
Now, Ingram will miss Week 12 with COVID-19, and he could miss Week 13 as well. Ingram reached a season-high snap share of 42% back in Week 2, so I think his career might be over. He turns 31 years old in December, and he’s well past his prime. It’s possible that Ingram could hang around as Frank Gore or Adrian Peterson has, but he will never carry dynasty value again. If you have Ingram on your roster, hang on just in case. There are no moves to make here; we’re just at the end of Ingram’s shelf life in dynasty leagues.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
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