Last time in this debate series, @DFF_Ztrain and I broke down the two-sided Derrius Guice debate. He took the side of a third-year breakout for Guice while I took the side that Guice will be a 2020 redraft bust. This time, we’re going to debate JuJu Smith-Schuster. I get the positive outlook this time, so I’m going to tell you why I believe Smith-Schuster will return to the WR1 ranks and why I’ll have lots of shares of him in redraft. On the other hand, @DFF_Ztrain will talk about why Smith-Schuster is overrated going into 2020 and why he’ll avoid him in his drafts. Let’s jump into the case for Smith-Schuster.
2017: The Breakout
The Steelers selected Smith-Schuster out of USC with the 62nd overall pick of the 2017 NFL Draft. He had an up-and-down college career and came into the NFL as the youngest player in the entire 2017 draft class. Therefore, most expected Smith-Schuster to play a depth role on the 2017 Steelers behind star receiver Antonio Brown and number two Martavis Bryant.
However, as soon as Week 3, Smith-Schuster took over as the second wide receiver behind Brown in snap count, starting in all offensive sets. While he finished fourth on the team in targets behind Brown, Le’Veon Bell, and Bryant, Smith-Schuster produced well on his targets. He recorded 58 receptions on 79 targets for 917 yards and seven touchdowns. He was second on the team in yards and receiving touchdowns, and third in receptions.
Considering that Smith-Schuster only turned 21 years old in November of this excellent rookie season, his performance was far better than anyone could have expected. In 14 games played, he finished as the WR23 and 17th among receivers in PPR fantasy points per game. Therefore, he was a popular breakout candidate going into 2018 since he had done so well as a rookie.
2018: Stardom
After 2017, the Steelers traded Bryant to the Raiders, opening up a full starting role for Smith-Schuster alongside Brown. While the Steelers added Ryan Switzer via trade and drafted James Washington in the second round, neither made a significant impact in 2018. Also, Bell decided to hold out for all of 2018, opening the door for James Conner to start at running back. While Conner played well, he was nowhere near the pass-catching back that Bell was.
All of these circumstances opened the door for Brown and Smith-Schuster to form one of the best and most productive receiving duos of all-time. The two players dominated the Steelers’ offensive targets. Brown led with 168 and Smith-Schuster was just behind with 166. Brown led the team with 15 receiving touchdowns and added 104 receptions for 1,297 yards. Smith-Schuster finished first in yards with 1,426 and receptions with 111.
These two-star receivers allowed Ben Roethlisberger to throw for 5,129 yards and 34 touchdowns, most of which went to the talented duo. Brown and Smith-Schuster were essentially equal for fantasy football in 2018, with Brown finishing as the WR5 and Smith-Schuster as the WR8. Both were solid WR1s, and it seemed that the Steelers had the best pair of receivers in the league, potentially for years to come.
2019: Disappointment
Unfortunately for the Steelers, everything fell apart after the 2018 season. Brown decided that he didn’t want to share the spotlight and demanded a trade away from the Steelers. The Steelers eventually obliged, sending him to the Raiders. There was no way to fully replace Brown’s production, but the Steelers tried to add complementary pieces to Smith-Schuster before 2019. They signed Donte Moncrief in free agency and drafted Diontae Johnson in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. Both receivers projected in-depth roles behind Smith-Schuster and in competition with Washington for playing time.
However, almost none of those carefully-laid plans came to pass for the Steelers in 2019. Roethlisberger managed to play only two games before going on injured reserve with an elbow injury. Even in the two games he played, Roethlisberger wasn’t healthy, throwing no touchdowns and an interception while completing 56.5% of his passes. His replacements, Mason Rudolph and later Devlin Hodges, were both horrible for the remaining 14 games. While Rudolph was slightly better, neither played at the level of a competent NFL starter.
Because of the poor quarterback play, the entire Steelers’ offense suffered. They totaled 3,214 passing yards as a team, with 18 touchdowns compared to 19 interceptions. Moncrief was a complete bust, with only four receptions for 18 yards. Johnson broke out as a rookie, leading the team in with 92 targets, 59 receptions, and five receiving touchdowns. Washington was second in targets with 80 and added 44 receptions for 735 yards and three touchdowns on those targets.
Smith-Schuster was the biggest disappointment, though. He totaled only 42 receptions on 70 targets for 552 yards and three touchdowns. He was the third-most productive receiver on the Steelers, behind both Washington and Johnson, although Smith-Schuster only played 12 games. Let’s take a closer look at precisely what happened to Smith-Schuster in 2019.
In Week 1, Smith-Schuster suffered a minor toe injury against the Patriots. While that injury didn’t hold him out of action, he was questionable leading into Week 2 but seemed fully healthy going into the game. Through Week 3, Smith-Schuster had at least been productive with 14 catches for 243 yards, averaging 81 yards per game. He hadn’t scored yet, but considering the poor play of the Steelers’ quarterbacks, he was doing decently well.
However, in Week 4, there was another setback. Smith-Schuster aggravated the same toe injury in that contest, causing him to have a bad game. While that injury didn’t seem to be long-lasting, it added to Smith-Schuster’s overall poor numbers for the season. After Week 4, Smith-Schuster had an up-and-down stretch where he appeared to be fully healthy. In Weeks 5-9, he played in all four of the Steelers’ games, averaging 11.5 PPR points per game. In two of those games, he had seven receptions for 75 yards and a touchdown and five catches for 103 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, the other two games were awful, as Smith-Schuster had just one catch for seven yards in one contest and three receptions for 16 yards in the other.
Then, before Week 10, Smith-Schuster re-aggravated the same toe injury, which caused him to be a late addition to that week’s injury report. He gutted through Week 10 but didn’t look his true self. After yet another setback with his toe, Smith-Schuster suffered two more separate injuries in Week 11. On one play, he suffered both a concussion and a knee injury. Both were relatively severe injuries, and either would have forced him out of the contest.
Smith-Schuster missed Week 12 due to the NFL’s concussion protocol but cleared the protocol in time for Week 13. However, his knee still was a problem and caused him to miss Weeks 13-15 after a couple of additional flare-ups during that period. As the Steelers were desperate for wins in Week 16 and 17, Smith-Schuster suited up for both contests despite admitting that he was nowhere near 100%. He struggled in both games, totaling only four receptions for 28 yards.
While 2019 was a lost season for Smith-Schuster, he wasn’t fully healthy for most of the season and played through severe injuries at times. He also had poor quarterback play the entire year, no matter who started for the Steelers. Even though I can’t write off the whole season, it’s important to note that there are some reasons to give Smith-Schuster the benefit of the doubt based on the circumstances he went through in this tumultuous season.
2020: What Now?
Going into 2020, I broke down the Steelers’ redraft assets, which you can read here. The Steelers made two significant additions to their receiving game, signing tight end Eric Ebron and drafting receiver Chase Claypool in the second round. The Steelers made it clear that Claypool was an outside receiver, which should allow them to shift Smith-Schuster into the slot more in 2020. Smith-Schuster has always excelled from the slot, where he played significant time in 2017 and 2018 with Brown on the team.
Also, Roethlisberger seems to be fully healthy, as he was recently practicing with the Steelers’ receivers including Smith-Schuster. Roethlisberger has always supported Smith-Schuster, with his positive comments about Smith-Schuster in 2018 being one of the reasons that Brown wanted out of Pittsburgh. There is no doubt that Roethlisberger sees Smith-Schuster as his number one receiver. Considering the comments from the Steelers’ management that Roethlisberger is mostly running the show, I think that Smith-Schuster will be the top target in 2020.
If Smith-Schuster is the top receiver, he could quickly return to his 2018 form. I don’t see Washington or Claypool as serious threats to his volume, and Johnson is just a number two receiver to me. I won’t rank Smith-Schuster as the high-end WR1 I expected him to be in 2019, but I think it’s fair to rank him as my WR12. He comes with a lot of risks, but the upside is certainly there. He could finish in the top-five, especially if Roethlisberger is as healthy as he claims. I support Smith-Schuster, and I hope I’m right to do so.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
