Dynasty Analysis
Kenny Golladay is coming off of two straight 1,000 yard seasons and finished as a top 10 fantasy receiver in 2019 at just 26 years old. Golladay overcame playing half of the season with a backup quarterback to lead the league in receiving touchdowns last year with 11 total scores and was one of three with double-digit touchdowns, but the only to score 11. He was also second in the league in average depth of target (15.7) and yards per target (10.3) among players with at least 100 targets. The only two receivers ahead of him were Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. We know when the ball finds Golladay it’s going to be deep downfield.
Higbee is one of my favorite 2020 values at tight end, coming in at TE6 in my redraft rankings. He’s in the same tier as Hunter Henry and Evan Engram, but neither of those players has anywhere close to Higbee’s upside. The Rams’ offense should improve from 2019, as quarterback Jared Goff had almost the same yardage in 2018 and 2019 but threw 10 fewer touchdowns. I expect to have many Higbee shares in my 2020 redraft leagues, and I would love to have him on my dynasty team.
After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism. I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!
The famous saying “you can’t win your league on draft day, but you can lose it” is one that I remind myself of every year. Draft day is the most important day of the year on any fantasy football player’s calendar as stakes are high and one bad decision can unravel an entire offseason of hard work. Having a strategy in place before the draft will limit the possibility of any costly errors occurring. While a strategy is important, please remember that drafting is a fluid situation and this will only act as your foundation when building a successful team.
In the late rounds of redraft leagues, I’m always hunting for upside. There’s no point in playing it safe and taking boring contributors that provide no opportunity to make a difference or to be league-winners. These four players are an example of what I’m talking about, one at each position. I’m not saying that any of these players will hit, and I would bet against some of them doing so. However, they all have high-end potential. If I’m wrong about one of them, I can cut them after a week or two with little to no harm.
After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism. I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!
Nick Chubb has had excellent success in his two NFL seasons. Once he took over from Carlos Hyde in 2018, Chubb began dominating the carries in the Browns’ backfield. From Weeks 7-17, Chubb was the RB8 and averaged 16.5 PPR points per game. He had 17.6 rushing attempts per game over that span, sharing only minimal touches with the Browns’ other running backs. Then in 2019, Chubb took a whopping 298 carries and gained 1,494, second in the NFL behind only Derrick Henry in both categories. Even once Kareem Hunt rejoined the Browns, Chubb still paced for over 1,350 yards across a full season. While Chubb lost passing-game work to Hunt, he was the Browns’ primary back and would have been a fantasy star if he’d been more successful in the red zone.
Is it possible that the Bills are coming off another playoff appearance (maybe even a win?) and Josh Allen has made real strides as an NFL passer? Sure. But it’s just as possible that Allen stagnates and costs the team wins. It’s possible that the Bills see their championship window slowly starting to close and decide that Josh Allen is holding them back. Do they decline his fifth-year option and bring in a veteran QB who can manage the game and let the defense win games? It’s possible. In other words, it’s possible that Josh Allen is the next Mitch Trubisky.
Rebuilding a dynasty team can be a ton of fun, mostly because rookie drafts make us feel like a kid on Christmas. We count up all our picks and wonder what shiny new toys the NFL draft will bring us this year. But I think there’s a bit of a fixation with rebuilding in the dynasty community that can distract from the true goal of playing dynasty and fantasy sports in general: winning championships.
In his rookie campaign, Smith-Schuster had 58 receptions for 917 yards and seven TDs while playing behind Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, and Martavius Bryant. In his sophomore campaign with Bell holding out and Bryant no longer with the team, Smith-Schuster exploded for 111 receptions for 1,426-yards and seven TDs. Per playerprofiler, Smith-Schuster was top six in the NFL in percent targeted on routes run as well as red zone target rate. Smith-Schuster joined Odell Beckham Jr. and Michael Thomas as the only three players with 165+ receptions for 2,300+ yards, and 14+ TDs within their first two seasons in NFL history. 2020 was not kind to Smith-Schuster as Roethlisberger played only two games as Devlin “Duck” Hodges and Mason Rudolph showed terrible quarterback play in his absence.
In this piece, I’m going to dig in the dumpster for two undervalued wide receivers that you should buy in dynasty formats. Dynasty owners have left each of these players for dead, and that’s a big mistake. I might look at some more established players in a second part, but I wanted to begin with two second-year players that missed in Year 1. While both of these players failed to meet expectations at first, they still have some promise. As always, we’re looking for the next D.J. Chark, a second-round receiver that breaks out in Year 2 after doing nothing in Year 1. Hitting on that type of player is one of the quickest ways to inject value into your dynasty team.
After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism. I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!
28-year-old Robert Woods is now coming off back to back to back 1,000+ yard seasons, establishing himself as a steady and dependable WR. Woods is a crafty route runner with a high football IQ, making him a trusted target of his QB Jared Goff. In 2018 Woods saw 131 targets (13th most in the league), he then followed that up with 140 targets in 2019 (8th most). In addition to being a target magnet, he adds value and fantasy points as a ball carrier. In 2018, Woods carried the ball 19 times for 157 yards and a touchdown bringing his total yards and touchdowns to 1376 and 7. This past season Robert Woods had 17 carries for 115 yards and one touchdown brought his total yards and touchdowns to 1249 and 3. This production equated to 261 PPR points (WR9) in 2018 and 212 PPR points (WR19) in 2019. Woods is a safe bet to be a WR2 in 2020, with the upside of mid-tier WR1 production.
We debated the rankings on Jalen Reagor, Henry Ruggs, Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, AJ Dillon, Bryan Edwards, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Zack Moss, and Joshua Kelley. We also touched upon players in their range, and who should be ascending or descending. I want to give a big thanks to everyone who contributed to this series of articles. I urge you to go follow them on twitter. Read the whole series for a number of opinions on players who could win you fantasy championships for years to come. This is Part 6 of the series, where @ff_spaceman and I discuss rookie Bryan Edwards.
My “Dead to Me” shovel is finally back. In one of my favorite series, I figuratively bury a new player in each article. Typically, I expect that player to stay buried after the 2020 season, and the player I’m discussing had significant fantasy value in the past. In this case, it’s time to discuss Jared Cook and his lengthy career. By the time you finish reading, you’re going to trust me, and my take that drafting Cook will demolish your team in 2020 redraft leagues.
After joining the Denver Broncos as an undrafted free agent in 2018, Phillip Lindsay quickly wrestled the starting running back job away from fellow rookie Royce Freeman. Lindsay surpassed 1,000 rushing yards in each of his first two seasons while scoring 17 total TDs. In March, Phillip Lindsay’s hopes of rushing for 1,000 yards in a third straight season were effectively dashed when the Broncos signed Melvin Gordon to a 2 year, $16 million contract. Since entering the league in 2015, Melvin Gordon has functioned as an all-purpose workhorse, averaging over 16 carries per game and tallying at least 55 targets in four straight seasons. Assuming Gordon is given a similar role in Denver, the workload for Phillip Lindsay will be dramatically reduced.
As the post-draft hype begins to fade and teams start looking for any asset on the waiver wire that they believe can help bolster their roster, everyone is looking for that next edge. In a recent argument on @TaleofTwoRivals, we bantered quickly about the value of UDFAs in a dynasty league but reached no real conclusion. I began to think of who can be this year’s, Preston Williams. Who can take the mantle of Tony Romo, Arian Foster, and a few others and carry a team to the next level? Who can you buy low on? Who might be on the waiver wire? What follows is a case study of UDFAs who have finished in the top 24 of their position in a fantasy season, how their team responded to that success (were replaced via free agency, the draft, etc.) and what happened in the following year.
Back in March, I did a four-part series on the incoming rookie class. Now, it’s time to go back through my takes and examine how they’ve changed in the past few months. I’ve included my four original articles, and my live post-draft takes as links at the bottom of this article. In part one, I looked at the progression of top rookie quarterbacks from March until now. Then, in part two, I covered how the consensus top-three running backs pre-NFL Draft have progressed in redraft value. I moved into part three, where I discussed the next tier of players, including two more running backs and two more wide receivers. Finally, in part four, I talked about the final four wide receivers I broke down in March. However, even though I predicted pretty accurately who would find fantasy relevance and draft capital early on in the process, plenty of players slipped through the cracks. I didn’t write about these three players in March, but I have to discuss them now, both as prospects and as redraft assets. Each of them has a chance at massive fantasy value in 2020, although they all have significant question marks.
Back in March, I did a four-part series on the incoming rookie class. Now, it’s time to go back through my takes and examine how they’ve changed in the past few months. I’ve included my four original articles, and my live post-draft takes as links at the bottom of this article. In part one, I looked at the progression of top rookie quarterbacks from March until now. Then, in part two, I covered how the consensus top-three running backs pre-NFL Draft have progressed in redraft value. I then moved into part three, where I discussed the next tier of players, including two more running backs and two more wide receivers. It’s time for part four, where I will talk about the final four wide receivers I broke down in March.
While Arnold appears to be a very good pass catcher, he is on the lighter side, at just 222 pounds. His limited impact in the blocking game may not allow him to be an every-down type of tight end, but he could be a touchdown machine like he was in college. Arnold has only played four games with the Cardinals, and his offensive snap rate increased each of the last three games, finishing with 44% in Week 17. This shows that Kingsbury has every intention of getting him involved.
Golden Tate finished five straight seasons with over 100 targets prior to being traded to the Giants in 2019 and dealing with a fading Eli Manning and rookie quarterback Daniel Jones. From 2014-2017 Tate had four straight seasons of 90+ catches and was a top 25 receiver each year. He’s also one of five players since 2013 with over 20% target share ever year, below are the others.
Given AJ Dillon’s massive frame, penchant for stiff arms, and his ability to break tackles and find space against stacked boxes, he seems like the ideal candidate for a massive workload in the coming seasons. He is the exact running back type that the Packers want to pound the rock during the winter months at the Frozen Tundra.
After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism. I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!
Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku has requested a trade from the Cleveland Browns via his agent, Drew Rosenhaus. The veteran sports agent and notorious bare-knuckles negotiator has almost certainly taken public a request made to the team shortly after another former first-rounder from the same position, Hayden Hurst demanded a trade from the Ravens to the Falcons earlier this year. Poetically and characteristically, Rosenhaus aired his demand for his client’s freedom from the league’s most unstable franchise on the eve of Independence Day. Timing is also of the essence because training camps open in a mere three weeks’ time.
Perhaps its fate that today is the 4th of July, and you will once again be fighting for our freedom, not from tyranny, oppression, or persecution — but from trade vetoes. The capability to veto trades was originally designed to prevent collusion. Collusion is defined as illegal or secret cooperation or conspiracy; especially to cheat or deceive others. The veto system allows owners to cast a vote if they feel a trade is unfair. If enough votes are cast against the trade, then it will be canceled. Let’s take a step back real quick. “If they FEEL it’s unfair”. See, that’s the thing, feelings are not facts. Feelings can be deceiving, and they don’t count for much when it comes to determining complicity.