Dynasty

2022 Projections: Denver Broncos

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Even though the touches will be very split Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon can both be usable backs. I do think that people are underestimating the effect that Melvin’s presence has on Javonte’s touches as his ADP of RB12 seems very high for the stats I am projecting. On the other hand, Melvin Gordon seems undervalued and is a great grab at his ADP of RB36. This discrepancy in ADP does not make sense to me because both are hampered by each other and were in a 50/50 split in 2021. And, if either gets hurt the healthy player will be a top ten back. So, Gordon being drafted so much later is hard to grasp. I think Javonte should be drafted lower and Gordon should be drafted higher.

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2022 Projections: Cleveland Browns

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When we loosely compare players, most people feel they have a good idea of what kind of production to expect. We may think “Deshaun Watson can support two fantasy-relevant WRs along with Chubb being an RB1 and Hunt being an RB2.” But, there may just not be room for that kind of production. I make projections to ground myself and help to understand what is actually possible, probable, or realistic. So, in this series, I will be going through each NFL team and making median projections for their 2022 seasons with their most fantasy-relevant players. I may be able to discern if certain players are being undervalued immediately but in most cases, I will need to finish more teams to get a good idea. 

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: New Orleans Saints

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It takes tight ends a while to adjust to the NFL game. Most excel as run-blockers before they see substantial growth in production as pass-catchers. For instance, Dalton Schultz didn’t surpass 600 receiving yards in a season until his third year in the league (2020), and he countered that with a TE3 finish last season (fourth year) in PPR formats. Dawson Knox is another prime example here. During his first two seasons in the league, he never topped 400 receiving yards, 30 receptions, or three receiving touchdowns. His best finish was as the TE32 before last season’s TE11 finish. Those are just a few examples, but the point is that you shouldn’t give up on Trautman just yet. He’s entering his third season as a pro with a better supporting cast surrounding him and a quarterback he’s somewhat familiar with. 

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2022 Projections: Cincinnati Bengals

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When we loosely compare players, most people feel they have a good idea of what kind of production to expect. We may think “Can Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase both really be top 12 wide receivers in fantasy this year?.” But, there may just not be room for that kind of production. I make projections to ground myself and help to understand what is actually possible, probable, or realistic. So, in this series, I will be going through each NFL team and making median projections for their 2022 seasons with their most fantasy-relevant players. I may be able to discern if certain players are being undervalued immediately but in most cases, I will need to finish more teams to get a good idea. 

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2022 Projections: Buffalo Bills

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First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last two to three seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush attempt shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, touchdown shares, etc. As well as team-focused metrics like pass-to-rush play ratio (this is team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass-to-rush touchdown ratio, and plays per game. I then use these past trends to predict what will be in store for 2022. Here are my projections for the Buffalo Bills’ fantasy-relevant players. 

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: Baltimore Ravens

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Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (offseason edition). Us Dynasty Managers need to be constantly researching ways we can bolster our rosters. Do you need advice on who to trade for? Maybe you’re looking for players to trade away. Do you have enough young talent to ensure your roster is set for years to come? Maybe you’re going all in and need a couple of pieces to sharpen your team. During this series, we dive deep into one player whose dynasty stock is increasing and one player whose dynasty stock is decreasing. As always, we will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the Baltimore Ravens. 

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2022 Projections: Baltimore Ravens

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When we loosely compare players, most people feel they have a good idea of what kind of production to expect. We may think “Oh yeah, Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman can both easily eclipse 1000 yards while J.K. Dobbins is an RB1 and Gus Edwards is a solid flex play.” But, there may just not be room for that kind of production. I make projections to ground myself and help to understand what is actually possible, probable, or realistic. So, in this series, I will be going through each NFL team and making median projections for their 2022 seasons with their most fantasy-relevant players. I may be able to discern if certain players are being undervalued immediately but in most cases, I will need to finish more teams to get a good idea. 

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Skyy Moore: Draft or Pass

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Skyy Moore is an intriguing prospect in the 2022 class. The WR coming out of Western Michigan University dominated the MAC since he stepped on the field. There are people with concerns about why he wasn’t at a big school but there is simple reasoning for that. Throughout his high school career, he played QB and CB so schools never saw what he was capable of at receiver. 

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Wan’Dale Robinson: Draft or Pass

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Wan’Dale Robinson is currently the most disrespected prospect in the 2022 Rookie Class by far as he’s slotted as a late second/early third-round rookie pick. The only reason I continue to see people point to is that his size will be an issue. What those people fail to realize is that the NFL is changing quickly and they are valuing the guys with short-area quickness that allow their quarterbacks to get the ball into playmakers’ hands and let them pick up yardage. I am well aware Daniel Jones is as far as possible from Tom Brady but the notion that small slot players can’t dominate targets on offense is overstated.

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Jeremy Ruckert: 2022 Dynasty Profile

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Jeremy Ruckert was a New York State Gatorade Player of the Year and USA Today first-team High School All-American coming out of high school. He was rated the number one TE prospect in the nation before signing with Ohio State. As a true freshman, Ruckert played in 12 games as a reserve. In 2019, he started three contests for the Big Ten Champs and brought in 14 passes for 142 yards and four TDs. Ruckert was an honorable mention All-Big Ten Conference selection in 2020 (13 – 151, five TDs) when they played the Covid-shortened season. He was an honorable mention selection again this past season, setting career bests with 26 receptions for 309 yards and scoring three times.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: Los Angeles Rams

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Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (offseason edition). We’re currently in the slow season. This is the part of the offseason where we remember back to the NFL Draft, and we look over our dynasty teams constantly. Most of us have concluded our rookie drafts, and some have participated in dynasty start-ups. There’s still a ton of time before the 2022 NFL season gets underway before September. This is the time to shape up our dynasty rosters. Should we look to trade away any assets? Do we need to make some significant cuts to our team? Is our taxi squad maximized and full of potential? As always, we will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the Los Angeles Rams. 

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: Las Vegas Raiders

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There’s only one obvious fantasy player that sees a decent fantasy boost going into the 2022 season. “Bring in the Carr.” What most fantasy managers don’t realize is that he has improved steadily throughout his career. His completion percentage has improved mightily since entering the league. He smashed his career-high in passing yards this past season. Sure, he’s turned the ball over a little more as of late, but what’s most important is that Carr finished as the QB13 in 2021, which is tied for the second-best finish (2016 was his best) during his eight-year career. Barring injuries, he should have no problem serving as the QB12 or better going forward now that his former college teammate, Davante Adams, is hauling in passes from him once again. 

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Dynasty Market Sweep: Rookie WR Market Report

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Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.

This will not be your typical “Buy/Sell” advice column. We are going to hone in on distinct seismic shifts in the dynasty community, provide an explanation as to why these changes are happening, and tell how you can exploit said changes to benefit your roster. If a player drops or raises drastically in value, we may suggest a transaction. However, the primary goal is to understand how to adjust within the market and avoid getting swept up in the whirlwind of overreaction.

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2022 Projections: Atlanta Falcons

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I do not like the Falcons’ offense for fantasy, they will play slow, they will not score many touchdowns, and they will not pass the ball much. The only asset worth spending a high pick on is Kyle Pitts. I could see myself owning some Patterson, Allgeier, and Mariota though as I think they will be fairly cheap options. I do think London may be over-drafted though, given the recent rookie WR production and not thinking about how inept this offense may be. I have Mariota as a mid to high QB2, Patterson as a high RB3, Allgeier as a low RB4, London as a mid WR3, Edwards and Olamide are not on my board, and Pitts as a mid to high TE1. Hopefully, this offense is good and passes a lot in 2022 but I would not bet on it.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: New England Patriots

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Do you know the last time a Patriot running back led the team in rushing for more than two seasons in a row? Corey Dillon accomplished that feat when he led the team in 2004, 2005, and 2006. Although Harris has yet to top 1,000 yards rushing in a season as a pro, he has led the team in rushing two seasons in a row now. History leans that his streak may end this season, as only three backs (Dillon, Antowain Smith, and Curtis Martin) have led the team in rushing in three consecutive seasons since 1991. Of course, you can’t base everything on history, especially in today’s game. But here’s what we know: the Patriots are quick to move off of backs, they hardly extend any of them, and they typically draft one (or two) each year. 

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2022 Projections: Arizona Cardinals

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For the Cardinals I have their QB, Kyler Murray Projected to be an elite fantasy asset, as he normally is. 4,400 yards, 36 total TDs, and 500 rush yards set him up to drop 24.6 fantasy points per game and help dominate your opponents. I have Conner taking a large majority of the carries and earning 280 total touches. The backs behind him are not proven NFL players so I have them getting about 80 carries each which left a ton for Conner. Keaontay Ingram also is not much of a pass catcher so I could see Conner getting some decent work there but I would not be surprised if he lost some of this to Rondale Moore. Let’s not forget, that DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for six games by the NFL. So while his counting stats may look a little low, his PPG numbers are still at a low WR1 level. He could be a value in redraft leagues if he slips too far.

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The WR1 Rating Dynasty Rookie Wide Receiver Countdown (Post Draft Update): Part 3

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For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a single WR1 rating. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. 

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The WR1 Rating Dynasty Rookie Wide Receiver Countdown (Post Draft Update): Part 2

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For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a single WR1 rating. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. 

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The WR1 Rating Dynasty Rookie Wide Receiver Countdown (Post Draft Update): Part 2 Read More »

The WR1 Rating Dynasty Rookie Wide Receiver Countdown (Post Draft Update): Part 1

Dynasty / By /

For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a single WR1 rating. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. 

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draft stock week 6

Dynasty Market Sweep: Post-Draft Rookie RB Market Report

Dynasty / By /

Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.

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