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Auction Draft Do's and Dont's

Auction Draft Do’s and Don’ts – Part One

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Let’s start with a simple, unequivocal, and in-no-way subjective fact: auction drafts are the best drafts. Auction drafts are more fun, they reward savvy fantasy players more than snake drafts, and they allow you to grab any player you’re willing to break the bank for. But how do you make the most of your bankroll and come away with a winning team? Here’s what to do… and what NOT to do.

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Sleeper of the Week

Sleeper of the Week: New Series

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typical fantasy owner is often wary of players that they haven’t seen produce in the NFL or those that don’t have “name value.” Rookies are often under drafted in most redraft leagues since they don’t have prior NFL stats. Also, players that put up decent stats but stayed off the fantasy radar can represent good sleepers. In this case, the goal is to exploit an information gap between informed and casual fantasy owners.

To keep things consistent, I will follow a particular format in this series. I’ll begin by discussing the player’s past production and history, focusing on their prior stats in the NFL and, in some cases, their draft profile. Then, I’ll move into why that player is a sleeper, specifically looking at and debunking negative narratives around that player. And finally, I’ll move into their expected 2020 outlook, and where I would draft the player on my redraft teams.

With that all out of the way, let’s get into my first sleeper, Hayden Hurst.

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DFS Fantasy Football Owners

What Lessons Can DFS Teach Fantasy Owners?

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For this article, I’m going to focus on regular weekly DFS contests, like FanDuel and DraftKings. Although there are other DFS formats, I feel that those weekly contests have unique takeaways and provide the most value for dynasty owners. Also, they are the most popular style of DFS, so they provide the broadest reach. I’ll split this article into the two main types of weekly DFS: cash games and GPP contests.

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What If? A Jamal Adams Trade Story

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Jamal Adams deserves to get paid. Is he worth the $20 million-plus a year he’s rumored to be seeking though? Today’s top-paid safeties don’t even make $15 million a year. The Jets say they want to make Adams a Jet for life, but they don’t seem motivated to sign Adams to any long term deals and why would they. From a business standpoint, it doesn’t make sense for the team. They still have him on contract, for much less, for the next two years. This has led to a lot of friction between the sides though and Adams has asked for a trade. His seven preferred destinations were the Ravens, Eagles, Cowboy, 49ers, Texans, Chiefs, and the Seahawks.  Some of these teams seem a little more feasible than others to me.

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A Redraft Journey: DeAndre Hopkins

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In April, I started writing a series focusing on one player at a time, called “A Redraft Journey.” Like my “Dead to Me” series, I take a deep dive into a single player, breaking down their entire career in redraft fantasy football. However, unlike that series, this set of articles is meant to be more positively toned. The links to the full set of previous entries are at the bottom of this article. It’s time to jump into DeAndre Hopkins, one of the best wide receivers in fantasy football over the past few years. But what has he truly brought to fantasy owners? There’s only one way to find out.

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Karp’s Favorite Fantasy Format

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No matter the format, the most important thing is that you and your league mates enjoy playing together. Play the types of leagues you like, and feel free to try new leagues. However, it’s also okay if you don’t want to play a specific format, like how I feel about IDP leagues. Just be a good person and an active owner, and you’ll enjoy your time in this world.

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A Redraft Journey: Melvin Gordon

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In April, I started writing a series focusing on one player at a time, called “A Redraft Journey.” Like my “Dead to Me” series, I take a deep dive into a single player, breaking down their entire career in redraft fantasy football. However, unlike that series, this set of articles is meant to be more positively toned. I’m excited to get back to writing it, and I’m returning with a full breakdown of Melvin Gordon. He’s had an exciting roller-coaster ride both in the NFL and for fantasy owners, so let’s jump into it!

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The Rookie QB Mousetrap

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Breaking down these results broadly, we find that 4% of our sample QBs supported a WR1,17% supported a WR2, and 47% supported a WR3. In other words, since 2012, there’s been a 53% chance that a rookie QB fails to produce even a single wide receiver in the top 36. Considering there are only 32 teams in the NFL, that’s a pretty shocking revelation.

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The IDP Unseen Series: Part 1

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In this series of articles, we discuss some players from each defensive position group that are poised to break out this season. These players should put up a floor of respectable, fantasy starting lineup stat lines with the potential for positional top-15 ceilings. These are players that can be drafted or acquired with minimal draft capital in most full IDP leagues. An examination of the factors promoting these ascending players will take place in each article. Remarkably, there are quite a few players that are among the “IDP unseen,” as of now. We will start with the defensive line. 

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Dead to Me: Curtis Samuel

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After writing one of my “Dead to Me” articles, I remembered how much I enjoyed it. In this series, I figuratively bury a new player in each column. Typically, I expect that player to stay buried after the 2020 season, and the player I’m discussing had significant fantasy value or fantasy hype in the past. Now, it’s Curtis Samuel’s turn at the redraft tombstone.

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Redraft Strategy: Method Behind the Madness

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The famous saying “you can’t win your league on draft day, but you can lose it” is one that I remind myself of every year. Draft day is the most important day of the year on any fantasy football player’s calendar as stakes are high and one bad decision can unravel an entire offseason of hard work. Having a strategy in place before the draft will limit the possibility of any costly errors occurring. While a strategy is important, please remember that drafting is a fluid situation and this will only act as your foundation when building a successful team.

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High Upside Late-Round Redraft Targets

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In the late rounds of redraft leagues, I’m always hunting for upside. There’s no point in playing it safe and taking boring contributors that provide no opportunity to make a difference or to be league-winners. These four players are an example of what I’m talking about, one at each position. I’m not saying that any of these players will hit, and I would bet against some of them doing so. However, they all have high-end potential. If I’m wrong about one of them, I can cut them after a week or two with little to no harm.

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Is Josh Allen the next Mitch Trubisky?

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Is it possible that the Bills are coming off another playoff appearance (maybe even a win?) and Josh Allen has made real strides as an NFL passer? Sure. But it’s just as possible that Allen stagnates and costs the team wins. It’s possible that the Bills see their championship window slowly starting to close and decide that Josh Allen is holding them back. Do they decline his fifth-year option and bring in a veteran QB who can manage the game and let the defense win games? It’s possible. In other words, it’s possible that Josh Allen is the next Mitch Trubisky.

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Dead to Me: Jared Cook

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My “Dead to Me” shovel is finally back. In one of my favorite series, I figuratively bury a new player in each article. Typically, I expect that player to stay buried after the 2020 season, and the player I’m discussing had significant fantasy value in the past. In this case, it’s time to discuss Jared Cook and his lengthy career. By the time you finish reading, you’re going to trust me, and my take that drafting Cook will demolish your team in 2020 redraft leagues.

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Rookie Redraft Update: The Risers

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Back in March, I did a four-part series on the incoming rookie class. Now, it’s time to go back through my takes and examine how they’ve changed in the past few months. I’ve included my four original articles, and my live post-draft takes as links at the bottom of this article. In part one, I looked at the progression of top rookie quarterbacks from March until now. Then, in part two, I covered how the consensus top-three running backs pre-NFL Draft have progressed in redraft value. I moved into part three, where I discussed the next tier of players, including two more running backs and two more wide receivers. Finally, in part four, I talked about the final four wide receivers I broke down in March. However, even though I predicted pretty accurately who would find fantasy relevance and draft capital early on in the process, plenty of players slipped through the cracks. I didn’t write about these three players in March, but I have to discuss them now, both as prospects and as redraft assets. Each of them has a chance at massive fantasy value in 2020, although they all have significant question marks.

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Rookie Redraft Update Part 4

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Back in March, I did a four-part series on the incoming rookie class. Now, it’s time to go back through my takes and examine how they’ve changed in the past few months. I’ve included my four original articles, and my live post-draft takes as links at the bottom of this article. In part one, I looked at the progression of top rookie quarterbacks from March until now. Then, in part two, I covered how the consensus top-three running backs pre-NFL Draft have progressed in redraft value. I then moved into part three, where I discussed the next tier of players, including two more running backs and two more wide receivers. It’s time for part four, where I will talk about the final four wide receivers I broke down in March.

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Redraft 2020: The Ice Cream & Pancakes Strategy

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As redraft season (hopefully) approaches, the time has come to consider which strategy you will use to dominate your league-mates. These days, every fantasy player worth their salt is aware of late-round QB and late-round TE strategies, and Zero RB has become less and less viable over the years. However, there is a way to outsmart the room, even in 2020. The strategy that I’m proposing involves leveraging the positional scarcity of elite RBs and taking advantage of WR values in the middle and late rounds of your draft. I call this two-step strategy Ice Cream & Pancakes. 

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Rookie Redraft Update Part 3

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Back in March, I did a four-part series on the incoming rookie class. Now, it’s time to go back through my takes and examine how they’ve changed in the past few months. I’ve included all four of my original articles, and all my live post-draft takes as links at the bottom of this article. In part one, I looked at the progression of top rookie quarterbacks from March until now. Then, in part two, I covered how the consensus top-three running backs pre-NFL Draft have progressed in redraft value. Now, it’s time for part three and a mix of two running backs and two wide receivers. Let’s jump into these four exciting players!

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2020 Poor IDP Strength of Schedule

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In this series, we analyze the IDP strength-of-schedule for the 2020 NFL season. In IDP fantasy football, fewer opportunities correlate to reduced chances of production and underperforming IDP assets. Today, we’ll focus on low pace-of-play / plays-per-game schedules that a few unlucky defenses will face (based on 2019 data). Let’s take a look at the defenses and IDP defenders who could suffer from their schedule.

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High Upside Dart Throw: Van Jefferson

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Van Jefferson is not on anyone’s fantasy radar coming into drafts this season. Quietly selected in the second round of the 2020 draft, Jefferson walks into his rookie season with one of the best offensive schemes in the NFL. Other highly drafted prospects like Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Pittman are getting the majority of the attention from the fantasy community. However, I believe Van Jefferson may be the most underrated and unheralded rookie of the 2020 class, and someone that could bring you sneaky value this upcoming fantasy season.

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