The Setup
Every few weeks, the Dynasty Football Factory team gathers its sharpest minds to put together a no time limit mock draft. Throughout the year the type of mock changes quite a bit. At the beginning of the year, it’s a lot of dynasty startups and rookie drafts. Now that it’s summer, the focus switches to redraft. Below I’ll go through our 16-round, 12 team PPR redraft league mock which we completed on 7/24/20. In this league, we start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, and 2 Flex. The full draft board can be found here.
I drafted from the sixth spot this time around to get a feel for what it’s like missing out on the top tier running backs. (Spoiler: it’s not fun). I’ll also be picking out my favorite and least favorite picks along the way. Let’s dive in!
Round 1
My Pick: Davante Adams
Favorite Pick: Alvin Kamara
Least Favorite Pick: Dalvin Cook
Analysis
The same circumstances that led Michael Thomas to be the overall WR1 last year are lining up for Adams this year. He may not reach those heights, but he’s going to be an absolute target monster in 2020. If he can stay healthy, the sky’s the limit.
My favorite player should be McCaffrey, but I thought that was too easy. So, I thought I’d go with Kamara. He has the perfect skill set to be a top 3 RB in PPR after catching 81 balls each of the past three seasons (yes, 81 every year!). He missed three games last year and still caught 81 passes and had over 1300 total yards. Kamara is my favorite because he’s got as good a chance as any of the top-tier RB’s to finish as the overall RB1. But, you can always get him last. This allows you to grab a better player in round two on the way back!
Fantasy football is about weekly upside and weekly floor. Drafting Dalvin Cook with the seventh pick is not accounting for any of the risk involved with him this year. I personally didn’t like the Henry, Mixon, Drake, or Jones picks that much. But, they all have a better chance at being on the field for 16 games than Cook who is currently holding out and has missed seven games in the last two years, plus an additional 12 in his rookie season.
Round 2
My Pick: Lamar Jackson
Favorite Pick: Austin Ekeler
Least Favorite Pick: Lamar Jackson
Analysis
What? I made my least favorite pick? Yes I did. I took a player who broke fantasy records last year. But, that wasn’t enough to make up for passing on a running back in both the first and second rounds of this mock. It is going to be extremely difficult to find value at the running back position late in drafts this year. It’s even more difficult when you draft from the middle because it’s harder to predict which direction each team will go with their picks. Regardless, as you’ll see later on, I had to start taking chances on high upside rookie running backs in order to make up for the lack of a stud. I can only hope Jackson is historically good again because that’s the only way to make up for passing on a potential top 10 running back.
As for my favorite pick, Austin Ekeler, I was really hoping he would fall to me. I am one of the biggest Ekeler fans on the planet most likely. Here’s a free in-depth article on why I love him in both redraft and dynasty. He’s extremely efficient, he is utilized in the passing game both out of the backfield and lined up out wide, and he just had his main sharer of the workload (Melvin Gordon) leave for Denver in the offseason. This leaves the only competitors for touches being two running backs with day-three draft capital. Oh, and just last year he finished as the RB4 in PPR splitting touches from week five on. And, you can get Ekeler in round two. He’s an absolute steal.
Round 3
My Pick: Jonathan Taylor
Favorite Pick: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Least Favorite Pick: Chris Carson
Analysis
My first running back is rookie Jonathan Taylor out of Wisconsin. The biggest question mark is the overall workload. Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines are both on the roster and the former rushed 247 times last year and the latter took up 139 targets over the past two seasons. What does that leave for Taylor? It could be disappointment, if the lack of offseason for rookies causes him to be eased into the lineup slowly. Picking players that have plus matchups in the first few weeks is an underutilized strategy because of the advantage of getting off to a hot start in redraft offers. It immediately gives you leverage in trades and the ability to look ahead without worrying about the current week so much.
Drafting a rookie running back as your RB1 is incredibly risky despite the projection of ending the year off strong. I’m banking on one or two big plays from the explosive Taylor to get me through any underutilization in the first couple of games.
If drafting rookie running backs is so risky, why is Clyde Edwards-Helaire my favorite pick of the round? Well, he was the only running back taken in the first round, he’s in an extremely explosive offense in Kansas City, and he was the third running back taken by the team in this mock. Having an RB1 upside player in your flex spot is the perfect way to start the draft and increase your weekly floor.
I like Chris Carson the player. However, all signs point to Carson missing the start of this season due to an injury he suffered last year. The Seahawks even signed Carlos Hyde to help ease the transition. Without any setbacks, Carson will still end up missing games early and will be eased back into the lineup. This makes him an unreliable starter for the first third, or more, of the fantasy season. That’s not someone I’ll be taking to play a key role in my starting lineup if I want to start off hot.
Round 4
My Pick: Robert Woods
Favorite Pick: Calvin Ridley
Least Favorite Pick: Mark Ingram II
Analysis
For the first time this summer, I have taken Robert Woods over his teammate Cooper Kupp. Something in my gut is telling me that the shift is going to happen. Woods ended last year on an absolute tear, scoring 15+ points in all but one game from week 10 on last year. Meanwhile, Kupp averaged under six targets and was only able to maintain fantasy relevance by scoring a touchdown in each of his five games. Kupp only broke 65 yards once in that stretch while Woods broke 65 yards in all but one game. I’m betting the move to 12 personnel impaired Kupp’s performance due to not utilizing a slot as much, but treated Woods well due to his natural position being on the outside.
Calvin Ridley is everyone’s favorite breakout candidate this year, making his availability in the fourth round a steal. People see a lot of Chris Godwin’s year three breakout in Ridley. Plays on a passing team with a bad defense and an established stud across from him (Mike Evans, Julio Jones). Ridley has already performed for fantasy, finishing as a top 27 PPR receiver in his first two seasons. With a floor of top 30 and a breakout in sight, being drafted as the WR 14 is perfect. No breakout won’t kill your team, but a full breakout could put your team over the top. Great pick.
I’m not going to like a lot of the running backs from here on out unless they offer high upside or an immediate advantage. Mark Ingram II had an excellent year last year, finishing as the RB11. But, that was on the back of 228 touches and 15 total touchdowns. I don’t expect him to come anywhere close to those numbers with the Ravens adding J.K. Dobbins out of The Ohio State in the draft. Dobbins was my RB2 in the class and is a perfect back for the Ravens. He won’t be behind Ingram II for long, making this pick one of the first I could see being dropped early in the season due to performance.
Round 5/6
My Pick: Tyler Lockett, Raheem Mostert
Favorite Pick: DJ Chark Jr.
Least Favorite Pick: Marquise Brown
Analysis
Tyler Lockett is one of my favorite players. With all the hype around D.K. Metcalf, Lockett, who performed as a top 10 WR before getting hurt last year, is a huge value in drafts. I was able to grab my Lockett as my WR3 and as overall WR23. This is an awesome value. Lockett has never needed to be a target hog, finishing in fantasy as WR16 and WR13 the past two years with 71 and 110 targets respectively. The point is that even if Metcalf takes a step towards being a big-time number one, Lockett will still have the targets available to him to be a top 20 receiver.
Raheem Mostert was inconsistent last year but showed the coaches down the stretch that he deserves a bigger workload. If he can continue pushing for the biggest share, drafting him in the sixth round will end up looking like a steal. He finished with double-digit points in every game from weeks 12-17 and would really help give me some time to let Taylor settle into his role if he can start out hot.
The Gardner Minshew-DJ Chark pairing is giving me major 2015 Blake Bortles–Allen Robinson vibes. I’m not saying Chark is going to finish a WR6 as Robinson did, but I’m expecting a jump in performance from both of these two. Chark finished last season as WR17 but was hampered by an ankle injury down the final stretch of the season, including making him miss week 15. With a gun-slinging playmaker at the quarterback position, I expect Chark to be peppered with targets as the Jaguars find themselves losing early and often in 2020.
This is a start three receiver league. There are also two flex spots on top of that. I just don’t see a world where drafting Marquise Brown as a week in, week out starter makes any sense. First, he was constantly injured. He played on the least pass-happy team in the league. He only scored above seven points half of the time he played. Additionally, he had more than four targets only once in the final eight games of the season. I would never be able to trust someone who is more bust than boom and doesn’t expect any increase in targets. He could be a great player to fill out your final flex spot, but I won’t be drafting him if he is going as high as he did here.
Round 7/8
My Pick: Michael Gallup, Tyler Higbee
Favorite Pick: Jamison Crowder
Least Favorite Pick: CeeDee Lamb
Analysis
Michael Gallup finished as WR22 last year, but that doesn’t say enough about what he actually accomplished in his second year in the league. Gallup had over 1100 receiving yards and he missed two and one-third games! Even with the addition of CeeDee Lamb in the first round of the draft, the Cowboys’ now third-year receiver should be in contention to lead the team in targets. I love Lamb in dynasty, but rookie receivers are such a crapshoot in fantasy leagues. Had the Cowboys not taken Lamb, Gallup would have been right up with Ridley in contention for the biggest third-year breakout. I still think he has a chance to do it.
Tyler Higbee is my main target at the tight end this year. My colleague @DFF_Karp has an excellent article on Higbee and despite being dynasty focused, it does an excellent job elaborating on his 2020 outlook and why I’m excited to have him on my redraft teams. The main focus was on Higbee’s utilization at the end of last season. Higbee averaged 104.4 yards, 8.6 receptions, and 11.2 targets from weeks 13-17. He was the TE1 in that stretch and it seemed to correlate with the Rams shifting their offense from a three-wide-receiver set to a two-tight-end two-receiver set. The ensuing production made Higbee a league winning pickup at a position that’s so unpredictable on a week-to-week basis. The chance that he receives near those targets again is too much to pass up on in the eighth round.
I do love my pick, but I’m also a huge Crowder fan in full PPR formats. Sam Darnold missed three weeks last year and in games where he played, Crowder averaged over 8 targets per game en route to WR26. The Jets lost their top receiver, Robby Anderson, to free agency in the offseason and brought in Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims. But, that leaves only one receiver with significant chemistry with Darnold. That’s Crowder. He may not have the biggest upside, but with a bad offensive line, Darnold is forced to throw short often and Crowder is the guy at the end of those passes.
As I said above, CeeDee Lamb is one of my favorite dynasty players. The problem is this isn’t a dynasty mock. The focus is to win now. Drafting rookie receivers in rounds where starters are being drafted is not the way to win now. There have been some great rookie breakouts over the years, but most of them didn’t involve having two great receivers ahead of them on the depth chart. The path to targets and fantasy points this year is bleak.
Round 9/10
My Pick: Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Justin Jefferson
Favorite Pick: Drew Brees
Least Favorite Pick: N’Keal Harry
Analysis
The upside is high with Ke’Shawn Vaughn. I was excited to see him go to a team in need of a running back. Even with Ronald Jones there, all the signs are pointing to somebody being “the main guy” in Tampa Bay. If Vaughn can earn the trust of Brady and Arians early, he’ll fall into a great role on a team where the main focus will be on the outside receivers and Gronk. If he doesn’t win the job, he’s someone that has league-winning upside in case of an injury to Jones.
Everything I said about CeeDee Lamb applies to Justin Jefferson. The biggest difference is that Jefferson was drafted to replace targets vacated by Stefon Diggs who’s now in Buffalo. He may be a rookie, but he has a clear path to targets from day one.
Drew Brees was a top-five quarterback on a ppg basis last year. The Saints gave him some help in Emmanuel Sanders and are sure to keep the foot on the gas when it comes to getting Brees some new records. I expect nothing short of what he did last year which makes grabbing him as the QB7 a solid pick. He’s the best and most reliable week in and week out of the quarterbacks left. Plus, this team was able to grab him in the double-digit rounds.
Round 11/12
My Pick: Duke Johnson, Justin Jackson
Favorite Pick: Boston Scott
Least Favorite Pick: Sammy Watkins
Analysis
Duke Johnson is now presumed to be the backup in Houston after they traded for David Johnson. However, he was still a top 30 running back in PPR last year while playing above 50% of the snaps only seven times. With David Johnson having been injured and missing significant time two out of the past three seasons, Duke Johnson offers some sneaky upside.
I love Ekeler, but I don’t think he’s going to get all of Melvin Gordon’s vacated touches. Either Justin Jackson or Joshua Kelley is going to earn a fantasy-relevant workload this year. But, no one knows who it is. Kelley went two picks prior, but I still like Jackson to get the first chance at earning that workload.
If the Eagles always utilize an RBBC, then why isn’t anyone drafting the backups? Specifically, fantasy players should be targeting Boston Scott. He looked electric down the stretch last year with three double-digit fantasy games out of four, which included a 35 point blow up against the Giants in week 17. He’s in the mold of Darren Sproles and he may have fantasy value in PPR because of his ability in space spelling Miles Sanders often.
Don’t draft Sammy Watkins. He is unpredictable and most of the time he just isn’t good. Watkins hasn’t had a top 40 fantasy finish since 2015. And, despite being on the Chiefs, he hasn’t been able to produce with any consistency. It’s a trap, you won’t be happy no matter where you draft him or when you start him.
Round 13/14/15
My Pick: Steven Sims Jr., Antonio Gandy-Golden, Carlos Hyde
Favorite Pick: Anthony McFarland Jr.
Least Favorite Pick: Patrick Laird
Analysis
Someone is going to end up fantasy relevant in Washington as the number two behind Terry McLaurin. My bet is on Sims Jr. But, I was a big fan of Antonio Gandy-Golden pre-draft so I won’t count him out after the Kelvin Harmon injury opening up a spot in the starting lineup for him. In the last rounds, I want someone that I can drop easily for a waiver wire breakout. One of those Washington receivers should be droppable quickly. I picked Hyde last due to the possibility of Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny both missing the opening game for the Seahawks. He put up a nice season with the Texans last year. So, if he’s the starter for a week or two, he will pay off this last round value ten times over.
Anthony McFarland was one of my top seven running backs pre-draft and he walks into a pretty good situation. The backups in Pittsburgh showed nothing last year and James Conner showed he wasn’t able to carry the entire load without getting injured. McFarland will be relevant at some point this year. The only issue is whether or not he’ll be dropped before then.
Patrick Laird is third on the depth chart in Miami. I don’t know what short-term upside there is taking a third-string running back. Miami brought in both Jordan Howard and Matt Breida signaling no trust in any running back on the roster.
Hope you enjoyed the mock draft review! Hit me up @DFF_JoeMem on twitter to let me know what you think! Be sure to sign up for the DFF monthly subscription so you can have access to my Dynasty Rankings and always be one step ahead of the competition!
