Intro/Methodology
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
Risers
Austin Ekeler
Ekeler exceeded my expectations in his first game back from injury. He didn’t do much on the ground, although he led the backfield with 14 carries to seven for Joshua Kelley. However, Ekeler had a whopping 16 targets, catching 11 for 85 yards. We hadn’t truly seen Ekeler play with rookie sensation Justin Herbert, and this game could represent their chemistry in the future.
Ekeler also took 72% of the offensive snaps, tied for his highest share this season. I know that the Chargers played without either Justin Jackson or Kalen Ballage, but I don’t expect either back to take away significant work from Ekeler when they return. I now have Ekeler as my dynasty RB14, similar to where he was pre-injury.
Antonio Gibson
Speaking of running back risers, Gibson is my biggest riser this week. I finally saw Washington move to Gibson as their clear lead back against the Cowboys. Gibson took 20 carries for 115 yards and three touchdowns, dominating relevant carries. Most notably, Gibson also had five receptions on seven targets compared to only two receptions on two targets for J.D. McKissic. McKissic had been a target monster until this week, so this target distribution was a massive change to the offense.
Gibson is only 22 years old, and he’s still learning the running back position after mostly playing wide receiver in college. The sky is the limit for Gibson, and I have him as my dynasty RB16. I still doubt that Gibson ever becomes a real workhorse, but he doesn’t have to be a workhorse to be an RB1. With his explosiveness, 65% of the touches is more than enough for Gibson. I’m finally fully bought into Gibson at this point.
Deebo Samuel
Unfortunately, we’ve virtually never seen Samuel and rookie Brandon Aiyuk both fully healthy and on the field at the same time. Samuel missed the first three games of the season while recovering from a Jones fracture, allowing Aiyuk to assume the featured role. While Samuel did return for Weeks 4-7, he didn’t seem 100% healthy before suffering a hamstring injury midway through Week 7’s game.
However, Samuel finally looked completely healthy from both his Jones fracture and hamstring injury this week, and he assumed a dominant role in the offense. Samuel had 11 receptions on 13 targets for 133 yards, playing on 88% of offensive snaps. I believe that Samuel is a slightly more talented player than Aiyuk, and the 49ers manufacture touches for Samuel in their offense.
Even though Samuel had his big game without Aiyuk in the lineup due to COVID-19, I think George Kittle’s absence is more significant to the 49ers’ offense. Therefore, I haven’t moved Samuel up too far in my rankings. But, it’s nice to see him have a good game, and I think he’ll at least provide fantasy value over the rest of 2020.
Cole Kmet
Kmet is more of an under-the-radar riser. He hasn’t had more than three targets or two receptions in any game thus far in 2020. So, I understand that you might be wondering why I have Kmet as a riser at all.
Well, it’s because of Kmet’s rising snap counts over the previous two weeks. Through Week 9, Kmet had never seen more than 47% of the offensive snaps in any game, while Jimmy Graham typically hovered around a 70% snap share. However, in Week 10, Kmet suddenly took the lead in snaps, with 70% to Graham’s 58%. Then, in Week 12 after the Bears’ Week 11 bye, Kmet dominated snaps over Graham, 79 to 35%.
The Bears spent a second-round pick on Kmet, so they have long-term plans for him in their offense. Hopefully, they can acquire a new quarterback for 2021, as almost anybody would represent an upgrade to the pairing of Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky. The Bears can also release Graham before 2021, saving $7 million in cap space. I believe fantasy owners haven’t yet caught onto Kmet’s changed role, making now the perfect time to strike.
Fallers
Will Fuller
I usually don’t cover injury or off-the-field news, but I felt that I had to discuss Fuller’s situation. After Week 12, the NFL suspended Fuller for six games for PED violations. I won’t go into the details, but Fuller isn’t appealing the ban, so he will miss the final five games of this season and the first game of next season.
Through 11 games this year, Fuller had 53 receptions on 75 targets for 879 yards and eight touchdowns, playing as a clear fantasy WR1. He also finally managed to stay healthy for an extended period, although perhaps the PEDs had something to do with that. Either way, Fuller finally started to gain my trust as a fantasy asset, and now he’s out for the season.
We know that the Texans tried to trade Fuller at the trade deadline, as he’s an unrestricted free agent after the 2020 season. Ordinarily, I would expect them to re-sign Fuller, but they also have Brandin Cooks on a massive contract as well as $10 million committed to Randall Cobb that they can’t escape. Therefore, Fuller comes with a lot of uncertainty right now and also has the stigma of PEDs. I wouldn’t recommend buying low or selling low on Fuller, though. Just hold him and see what happens.
Jonnu Smith
Alright, it’s time for the panic alarm for Smith. Smith recorded no offensive stats in Week 12 against the Colts, despite playing 75% of snaps. I thought Smith finally had become a vital part of the offense, as he saw six targets in each of Weeks 10 and 11 after totaling 12 targets in the previous four games. However, that outcome did not occur.
In the Titans’ first four games, Smith had 18 receptions on 27 targets for 221 yards and five touchdowns. In comparison, he had only 12 catches on 22 targets for 117 yards and two touchdowns over the previous seven games. Those numbers are unacceptable for any tight end, let alone a supposed “high-end” fantasy asset.
Somehow, Smith is still at TE10 in my dynasty rankings. I think that ranking demonstrates that the tight end position is a mess outside of a few players. Fantasy owners cannot possibly rely on starting Smith in their fantasy lineups, as he can clearly put up a goose egg at any time. If you’re struggling at tight end, look higher in the rankings for a solution. Don’t waste your time on acquiring Smith.
Travis Fulgham
I don’t truly understand what happened with Fulgham. He came out of nowhere in Week 4, suddenly seeing 60% of offensive snaps and catching two receptions for 57 yards and a touchdown. From there, Fulgham became a full-time starter and played four excellent games from Week 5 to Week 8. Fulgham totaled 27 receptions on 41 targets for 378 yards and three touchdowns during that period, averaging 6.8 receptions and 94.5 receiving yards per game. Most notably, Fulgham did all that despite Carson Wentz’s terrible play.
But, in Weeks 10 and 11, everything completely fell apart. Fulgham still played 88 and 96% of snaps, but he only recorded one reception for eight yards in each game, despite seeing five and seven targets. Perhaps based on that track record, the Eagles went away from Fulgham in Week 12, where suddenly Greg Ward became their top receiving in snap share, followed by a nasty committee of Jalen Reagor, Alshon Jeffery, and Fulgham. Of course, Wentz played so poorly once again that all of those receivers failed to deliver any significant output.
However, at this point, we have to realize that the Eagles aren’t genuinely committed to Fulgham. They spent a first-round pick on Reagor, and he will receive every opportunity possible to succeed. But, the same does not hold for Fulgham. The Eagles decided to put Jeffery’s ineffective, rotting corpse on the field over Fulgham far too often, demonstrating that we should have no confidence in their decision-making.
I wouldn’t completely write Fulgham off just yet, but he may have no value this time next year. It’s time to value him accordingly with that risk, not based on his production in Weeks 4-8.
Van Jefferson
I have zero understanding about what the Rams have done with Jefferson this season. They selected a 24-year old wide receiver in the second round, despite already having Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp on the roster. Then, they signed both Woods and Kupp to long-term extensions at the beginning of the 2020 NFL season, leaving little to no room for Jefferson to break out.
Oddly, the Rams and head coach Sean McVay handed Jefferson 45 and 38% of snaps in the first two weeks, demonstrating some commitment to giving him an early role. Well, they quickly decided that was a mistake, as he’s never seen more than 26% of snaps since then. In Week 12, he finally got no offensive snaps whatsoever, only playing on special teams.
In contrast, Josh Reynolds hit a season-high 98% of snaps in Week 12, even though he’s certainly not an exceptional talent. I have no clue why the Rams want to give Reynolds so many snaps, unless they truly believe that Jefferson has zero skill at all. Either way, it barely matters, as the Rams have no room for a third producer behind Kupp and Woods. McVay wants to run a “Kyle Shanahan-type” offense, which calls for a run-heavy attack and a committee of running backs.
Therefore, you can take Jefferson and toss him in the dynasty dumpster bin. He will turn 25 years old in July, and by the time he gets any real work, he’ll be past his dynasty prime. I think I’ll look elsewhere for a stash.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Previous Risers and Fallers: Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7, Week 8, Week 9, Week 10, Week 11, Week 12
