For those of you checking us out for the first time, I’m @DFF_Biscuits. My role at Dynasty Football Factory is to embrace our inner degenerate by covering all things sportsbook related. Each week I’ll be writing two pieces; one will be my weekly picks against the spread. The second article will focus on specific player props.
For the ATS (against the spread) articles, I will provide analysis on three bets that I feel have the best chance at netting you a nice payday. Whether it be due to matchups, injuries, or other factors, these are the three bets I feel the most confident in placing. I will also make predictions on the rest of the week’s spreads.
To keep me accountable, I’ll be keeping track of my wins and losses on the three bets I provide analysis on. These predictions are more “gut feel”, but you should still feel free to use them to help you place your wagers!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
I’m so excited to be back covering another season! Let’s get started.
Week 12 Recap
What a wacky week that was. With the Thanksgiving holiday and endless delays impacting the schedule, we were somehow still able to get a full slate of 16 games. Better yet, our picks went rather well! Admittedly, I will say I cheated a bit as we locked in the Steelers -4.5 early before all of Baltimore’s COVID-related issues, but a win is still a win!
Looking forward, it is our last official week with BYEs as both the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are off this week. That still leaves 15 games to choose from, however, so let’s dive right in!
Last Week: 10-6
In-depth picks: 21-15-0
Overall: 93-82-1
Jaguars (+10.5) at Vikings
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The Vikings’ defense isn’t good enough to beat any team by more than a touchdown. Give me the road dogs in this one.
Bengals at Dolphins (-11.5)
Now the Dolphins on the other hand…they are good enough to beat bad teams by double digits. Heck, they did it last week easily covering a seven-point spread against the hapless Jets. The offense seems to click better as a whole when Fitzpatrick is under center, likely leading to a plethora of yards and points against one of the worst defenses in the league.
For what it’s worth, Miami is tied for first at 8-3 against the spread. Even though the Bengals covered last week against the Giants, it took an injury to starting quarterback Daniel Jones to do so.
Eagles at Packers (-8.5)
The Eagles were able to cover the late spread of (+6.5) off a Hail Mary and subsequent two-point conversion (though it still wasn’t enough to cover the +5.5 we got…sigh). Those who watched the “game” saw just how anemic the Eagles’ offense is as they struggled to move the ball against the worst secondary in the NFL.
Now, the Eagles face the Packers who are ranked in the top-half of the league in total defense. If they could barely cover against the Seahawks, what hope do they have against Green Bay? Take the Packers with confidence here.
The Rest…
You can find all the NFL game odds right here, and my picks in bold below. Any games that do not currently have lines due to COVID postponements will be supplemented before kickoff.
Raiders (-8.5) at Jets
Browns (+5.5) at Titans
Saints (-2.5) at Falcons
Colts (-3.5) at Texans
Lions at Bears (-3)
Giants (+10) at Seahawks
Rams at Cardinals (+2.5)
Patriots at Chargers (+1)
Broncos at Chiefs (-13.5)
Washington at Steelers (-8.5)
Bills (-1) at 49’ers
Cowboys at Ravens (-7.5)
Disagree with my picks? Have any more information that I should be looking at? Feel free to DM me on Twitter at @DFF_Biscuits!
For more from Stephen, check out his archive.
