Back in March, I did a four-part series on the incoming rookie class. Now, it’s time to go back through my takes and examine how they’ve changed in the past few months. I’ve included my four original articles, and my live post-draft takes as links at the bottom of this article. In part one, I looked at the progression of top rookie quarterbacks from March until now. Then, in part two, I covered how the consensus top-three running backs pre-NFL Draft have progressed in redraft value. I moved into part three, where I discussed the next tier of players, including two more running backs and two more wide receivers. Finally, in part four, I talked about the final four wide receivers I broke down in March.
However, even though I predicted pretty accurately who would find fantasy relevance and draft capital early on in the process, plenty of players slipped through the cracks. I didn’t write about these three players in March, but I have to discuss them now, both as prospects and as redraft assets. Each of them has a chance at massive fantasy value in 2020, although they all have significant question marks.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn
While Vaughn had risen in my ranks throughout the offseason, he hadn’t yet received the level of attention that he has received since the NFL Draft. Vaughn was only the 76th overall pick and the eighth running back selected, so he didn’t get the type of draft capital I’m normally looking for in a redraft-viable running back. However, Vaughn is the classic story of a landing spot bump since he went to the Buccaneers.
In college, Vaughn started at Illinois, where he started as a true freshman in 2015 before losing carries in 2016. After 2016, Vaughn decided to transfer to Vanderbilt in search of more playing time. Due to NCAA transfer rules, Vaughn had to sit out all of 2017. In 2018, Vaughn took over Vanderbilt’s backfield, leading the team with 157 carries. He averaged 7.9 YPC and scored 12 touchdowns while adding 13 receptions for 170 yards and two touchdowns.
Even after Vaughn’s impressive 2018 season, he didn’t make much of an impact in devy or dynasty circles. Vaughn did produce again in 2019, but his efficiency significantly declined. He went down to 5.2 YPC and only scored nine rushing touchdowns on 41 more carries. Vaughn did catch 28 passes for 270 yards and a touchdown, demonstrating pass-catching ability. Because of that upside, the Buccaneers decided to select him to complement Ronald Jones and to provide a receiving weapon for Tom Brady.
In my quick reaction after the NFL Draft, I expected Vaughn to win the starting running back job, relegating Jones to backup duty. Since then, I’ve significantly backed off that take and reversed Vaughn and Jones’ rankings, as I discussed in my Bucs’ redraft breakdown. The Buccaneers have consistently stated that Jones is their starter, and Jones has the superior draft capital to Vaughn. Jones is also younger than Vaughn, despite having two more years of experience in the NFL. Given the nature of the offseason, Vaughn will not receive the opportunity to get used to the offense, and Arians has a reputation for preferring veterans over rookies.
Also, unlike popular narratives, Jones was not horrible in 2019. Most notably, Jones caught 31 of his 40 targets and averaged 10 yards per reception. Considering that Vaughn didn’t show efficiency as a runner in his final college season, it’s tough to see where Vaughn will succeed in 2020. I will not have Vaughn on any of my teams in 2020. Fantasy owners are fading the starter on this team in Jones for the backup in Vaughn, and I’m growing more and more confident in that take with each passing day.
Brandon Aiyuk
When I wrote my original set of articles, I never expected Aiyuk to go in the first round of the NFL Draft, but that’s what happened. The 49ers selected Aiyuk with the 25th overall pick, making him the sixth wide receiver off the board. If I had known about Aiyuk’s draft capital, I certainly would have included him in my article series, as any receiver that goes in the first round requires attention, even in redraft formats.
Let’s first go back and see what the 49ers saw in Aiyuk as a college prospect. Aiyuk began his college career in junior college at Sierra College. After two seasons there, he transferred to Arizona State for his final two years of college eligibility. In 2018, Aiyuk played alongside N’Keal Harry. While Harry had a stellar year, Aiyuk managed a measly 33 catches for 474 yards and three touchdowns. Aiyuk barely made an impact, and he didn’t even stand out among the secondary options on the team.
Surprisingly, Aiyuk broke away from the rest of the Arizona State receivers in 2019. He became the clear top option on the team, finishing with 65 receptions for 1,192 yards and eight touchdowns. Aiyuk averaged a stellar 18.3 yards per reception and flashed his speed throughout the season. However, at the NFL Combine, Aiyuk only ran a 4.5 in the 40-yard dash. While that’s not a bad performance, I expected Aiyuk to run a far faster time.
Considering that Aiyuk had only one productive college season and didn’t replicate his speed at the NFL Combine, I was stunned that he went in the first round of the NFL Draft. Even with his draft capital, I still had no interest in Aiyuk for redraft leagues. The 49ers have George Kittle as their top target and had Deebo Samuel as their top receiver. As a rookie, Samuel caught 57 passes for 802 yards and three touchdowns, while adding 14 carries for 159 yards and three more touchdowns. With the shortened offseason, I saw Aiyuk as having no chance to overtake Samuel. Because of the impacted offseason and due to the 49ers’ run-heavy offense, I ranked Aiyuk outside of my top-60 wide receivers in redraft leagues.
Recent events have entirely changed Aiyuk’s situation. Recently, Samuel suffered a Jones fracture in his foot. While Samuel might return in time for Week 1, the Jones fracture injury tends to be a lingering one that can hamper players throughout an entire season. Therefore, Aiyuk now has an opportunity to play as the 49ers’ top receiver, at least to open the season.
The 49ers do have some alternatives on the roster, including Kendrick Bourne, Dante Pettis, Jalen Hurd, and Trent Taylor. Even though each of those players has either had some hype or some production at times, none of them offer much upside or long-term appeal. Therefore, Aiyuk will play over all of them, especially if Samuel misses the first few games.
After Samuel’s injury, I moved Aiyuk up to my WR51 in redraft formats. I think it’s important not to overreact here. All of the negatives I previously mentioned continue to apply to Aiyuk. I don’t like that he only had one productive college season, and the 49ers don’t have a pass-first offense. Aiyuk could still struggle to learn the offense and still produce almost nothing as a rookie. The main difference is that Aiyuk now has far more upside after Samuel’s injury. I think Aiyuk now has a WR2 ceiling, whereas before his ceiling was more of a low-end WR3. Therefore, he’s worth drafting now when he wasn’t before.
Michael Pittman
Like Aiyuk, Pittman didn’t stand out to me before the NFL Draft. I chose to write about six wide receivers: CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, and Henry Ruggs. I never expected eight wide receivers to go in the first 34 selections, making this a historically deep wide receiver class.
In college, Pittman had a four-year career at USC. He steadily improved year-over-year, but he only had one significant season. From 2016-2018, Pittman totaled 70 receptions for 1244 yards and eight touchdowns. But in 2019, Pittman exploded for 101 receptions, 1275 yards, and 11 touchdowns.
Therefore, Pittman exceeded his first three years of production in his senior year alone. While it’s nice that Pittman had such a strong senior season, his lack of prior success is alarming. I prefer to see early breakouts, and I always have significant concerns with players that had years of playing time with no considerable production. That’s likely why Pittman slipped under my radar when writing the original series.
Whether they should have or not, the Colts selected Pittman with the 34th overall pick, adding him as a weapon for new quarterback Philip Rivers. The Colts have some receiving weapons on the roster, but Pittman should challenge for a starting job right away. Behind T.Y. Hilton, the Colts lack receiver depth, with only Parris Campbell and Zach Pascal as alternatives. Hilton also has injury concerns, as he struggled through the 2019 season.
Pittman will get some early looks in the Colts’ offense, even though I think the Colts will pass less in 2020. While Rivers is a massive upgrade over previous quarterback Jacoby Brissett, the Colts also added workhorse back Jonathan Taylor. The Colts might have the best backfield in the league between Taylor, the former starter Marlon Mack, and scatback Nyheim Hines. They also have a top offensive line, and both Jordan Wilkins and Jonathan Williams looked great playing behind it in 2019.
For now, I rank Pittman as my WR61, but that could rise if Pittman is a definite starter during training camp. I expect Pittman to win the second outside receiver job with Campbell moving into the slot. Even though I’m not too fond of Pittman’s prospect profile, anything can happen in the NFL, and targets are the most critical predictor of fantasy stats. I likely won’t have to draft Pittman in most redraft leagues, but I might grab him off waivers after Week 1 or 2.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Original Redraft Rookie Breakdown Series: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4
NFL Draft Quick Takes: Round 1, Round 2, Round 3, Rounds 4-7
