Back in March, I did a four-part series on the incoming rookie class. Now, it’s time to go back through my takes and examine how they’ve changed in the past few months. I’ve included all four of my original articles and all my live post-draft takes as links at the bottom of this article. I’ll start with part one, which covered quarterbacks.
Joe Burrow
I feel like I’ve discussed Burrow so many times this offseason. While that makes sense for the #1 overall pick, I continue to be impressed with Burrow both as a prospect and as a future fantasy quarterback. It’s important to emphasize that Burrow put up numbers in 2019 that no quarterback ever had approached before in college. He’s not a typical quarterback prospect and comes into the NFL at 23 years old. I believe his older age will give him more maturity and will allow him to find early success.
The Bengals also drafted Tee Higgins in the second round to give Burrow another passing weapon. Even though I see Higgins mostly as insurance for A.J. Green, Green is injury-prone, and adding depth to Burrow’s receivers is a significant plus. Green is supposedly fully healthy, so either way, the Bengals have their big receiver for Burrow.
Looking at Burrow’s prop lines also provides optimism for his fantasy outlook. Burrow’s passing yard line is 3,800 at FanDuel Sportsbook, which would have ranked 15th among quarterbacks in 2019. Considering that line bakes in the risk of injury, Burrow would project to have at least 4,000 yards in a healthy season. Also, Burrow’s touchdown line is 22.5. While that total isn’t that impressive, it would rank quite highly among rookie quarterbacks. Baker Mayfield holds the record for a rookie quarterback with 27 touchdown passes, and if Burrow stays healthy, he could challenge or break that record.
Despite my optimism, Burrow still only ranks as my QB18 in redraft formats. However, it’s essential to recognize why he’s ranked that low. When drafting a redraft quarterback, I’m ranking based on how I would draft, not based on how the players will score. Burrow begins the season against the Chargers and then plays Thursday night at the Browns, two tough matchups. For that reason alone, Burrow is essentially off my draft board. I plan to pick up Burrow from waivers after he struggles early on, though. The Bengals’ defense is terrible, and Burrow will face negative game scripts. If Burrow stays healthy, I expect him to finish as a fantasy QB1 in 2020.
Tua Tagovailoa
When writing my original preview, I noted that Tagovailoa had been the clear favorite for the top overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft process ever since he burst onto the scene in the 2017 National Championship Game. From that moment forward, Tagovailoa excelled in every capacity. He threw 87 touchdowns compared to only 11 interceptions and averaged 10.9 yards/attempt, the best in NCAA history.
In 2019, Tagovailoa suffered two injuries that dropped his draft stock. First, he missed a game due to a high ankle sprain. While that injury alone wouldn’t have been a massive concern, disaster struck during Alabama’s game against Mississippi State in 2019. Tagovailoa fractured his hip, forcing him to miss the remainder of the season. The hip fracture was severe and required surgery. At the time, most thought Tagovailoa would miss the entire 2020 season and take a redshirt-type year.00
When writing my original article, Tagovailoa had already sat out the NFL Combine, but he had planned a personal pro day for April. However, the coronavirus pandemic threw a wrench in those plans and prevented NFL teams and the public from gaining information about Tagovailoa’s hip. Despite all the uncertainty, the Dolphins decided to spend the fifth overall pick on Tagovailoa. The team gave Tagovailoa a passing physical before drafting him, so they felt comfortable with his injury recovery status. Even so, I still believed at the time that Tagovailoa would not play much, if at all, in his rookie year.
Since that time, my views on Tagovailoa have changed. Everything that has come out since the draft makes me believe that he will be 100% healthy for Week 1. Tagovailoa has been throwing throughout the offseason, and the Dolphins recently deemed him physically ready to play. Unfortunately, we don’t have minicamps because of the pandemic, so we can’t entirely know what drills Tagovailoa could do right now.
At this point, though, I have more concerns that Tagovailoa will not learn the offense in time for Week 1, rather than not being healthy. For that reason, I believe that Ryan Fitzpatrick will start at least the first few games. The Dolphins begin the season against the Bills and the Patriots, two of the toughest defenses in the NFL. However, as soon as Week 3 against the Jaguars, we could see Tagovailoa in the starting lineup. Given that Tagovailoa was a superior prospect to Burrow before his injury, I would not hesitate to consider him as a streamer once I see any on-field fantasy success. If Tagovailoa gets his shot, he could be a league-winner off the waiver wire; he’s that good.
Justin Herbert
Take everything optimistic I said about Burrow and Tagovailoa and reverse it, and there’s where I stand with Herbert in 2020 redraft leagues. In my previous work, I noted that Herbert would destroy the fantasy value of any receiving options on either the Dolphins or the Chargers if he saw the field in 2020. I recently did a redraft breakdown of the Chargers, and it wasn’t pretty. I downgraded all of the Chargers’ options, partially because of the possibility that Herbert would enter a game.
Herbert has a nice prospect profile, but he’s raw and not NFL-ready. I believe in his physique and arm far more than his ability to command an NFL offense. We’ve seen quarterbacks like that succeed in the past, like Josh Allen, but they need to run the ball to be fantasy stars. Herbert never ran for 200 yards in any of his college seasons, so he hasn’t displayed that ability to his game. He’s also mistake-prone and will throw plenty of interceptions. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chargers turn from Tyrod Taylor to Herbert, and it’s so bad that they have to go back to Taylor.
I warned you back in February, I repeated that warning after the NFL Draft, did the same in my Chargers’ article, and I’m saying it here one last time. Do not expect Herbert to do anything you want to see in 2020. He will be an absolute disaster. Avoid him at all costs, even as a streamer. You’re asking for one of those negative point games that tanks an entire week. Trust me on this one.
Jordan Love
Unlike the other quarterbacks, Love didn’t go anywhere near where I expected him to go in the NFL Draft. Back in March, I thought that the Buccaneers or perhaps the Colts would have an interest in Love to replace Jameis Winston or Jacoby Brissett. However, each of those teams decided to sign veterans in free agency instead of drafting a young quarterback.
Considering the lack of starting openings, Love fell in the NFL Draft and landed behind Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. I think he spared us all a fantasy nightmare, as I still believe Love isn’t a very talented quarterback just yet. Let’s all hope that Love doesn’t see the field in 2020 for Davante Adams’ sake.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Original Redraft Rookie Breakdown Series: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4
NFL Draft Quick Takes: Round 1, Round 2, Round 3, Rounds 4-7
