Back in March, I did a four-part series on the incoming rookie class. Now, it’s time to go back through my takes and examine how they’ve changed in the past few months. I’ve included my four original articles, and my live post-draft takes as links at the bottom of this article. In part one, I looked at the progression of top rookie quarterbacks from March until now. Then, in part two, I covered how the consensus top-three running backs pre-NFL Draft have progressed in redraft value. I then moved into part three, where I discussed the next tier of players, including two more running backs and two more wide receivers. It’s time for part four, where I will talk about the final four wide receivers I broke down in March.
Jalen Reagor
At the time of writing, I ranked Reagor as my rookie WR3, behind only CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy. Reagor found mixed success at TCU, with a strong 2018 season but a poor 2019 performance. While there were some issues in the TCU offense that could explain why Reagor had a down year, he therefore didn’t come with the same bulletproof profile that Lamb and Jeudy did.
Additionally, Reagor ran a relatively slow 4.47 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. Considering that many expected him to challenge Henry Ruggs for the fastest time, his perceived draft stock dropped significantly. I expected Reagor to go in the second round and projected him as a potential target for the Colts. I thought Reagor would fit in well as a WR2 on an NFL offense in his rookie year, providing a deep threat and versatile presence for his NFL team.
However, Reagor beat my expectations in the NFL Draft. The Eagles made Reagor the fourth receiver off the board and the 21st overall pick. While the Eagles do have some receivers on their roster such as Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Reagor should challenge for the top receiver spot immediately. Jeffery will open the season on the PUP list, and Arcega-Whiteside has inferior draft capital to Reagor. Arcega-Whiteside also showed nothing in his 2019 rookie year.
Jackson should be the top target at first, but I expect Jackson and Reagor to be the Eagles’ two Week 1 starters in their 12 base offense, alongside tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. Given Reagor’s upside, I have him ranked as my WR50 in my redraft rankings. Multiple beat reports have suggested that Reagor could lead the Eagles’ WRs in targets over the whole of 2020, and I think he has the most upside of anybody in the receiver group. I would be happy to select Reagor as a flier in redraft leagues in 2020.
Tee Higgins
While Reagor’s redraft value has increased since my previous article, Higgins’ value has declined. Coming into the NFL Draft, Higgins profiled as an alpha wide receiver based on his career at Clemson. Higgins progressed throughout his time as Clemson, finishing with 59 receptions for 1,167 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2019. However, he decided to skip the NFL Combine, which slightly reduced his draft stock. Higgins did perform at Clemson’s pro day, but he wasn’t that impressive. I expected Higgins to go in the early to the mid-second round.
While Higgins did receive about that level of draft capital, his landing spot was terrible for redraft purposes. The Bengals selected Higgins with the 33rd overall pick, the first pick of the second round. At best, Higgins comes in as the third receiver on the Bengals, behind both A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. While there was some speculation the Bengals could trade Green, I now don’t expect that to happen. Green will play for the Bengals in 2020 under the franchise tag, whether Green and the Bengals reach a long-term agreement or not. I don’t expect the two sides to sign a new deal before the July 15th deadline, but that doesn’t affect Higgins 2020 fantasy value all that much.
At first, Higgins will compete with John Ross for the outside receiver role opposite Green with Boyd in the slot. Given the current shortened offseason, I don’t expect Higgins to win that competition. Also, Higgins profiles similarly to Green, as a big, tall receiver option, whereas Ross provides a downfield speed element that better complements Green and Boyd. I love Higgins as a dynasty stash since he has a great long-term quarterback in Joe Burrow and will replace Green in 2020. However, Higgins is entirely off my redraft board, coming in outside of my draftable range. Unless Green gets moved off the team or suffers an injury, there’s no reason to pay any attention to Higgins in 2020.
Justin Jefferson
Jefferson had a bizarre prospect journey throughout the offseason leading up to the NFL Draft. At the time of my original article, Jefferson had already moved way up draft boards, ranking as my dynasty WR5. However, it’s interesting that Jefferson didn’t get more attention to begin with, as he had solid production at LSU. He put up monster numbers in 2019, with 111 receptions for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns. While his teammate Ja’Marr Chase might have been a more flashy player, Jefferson led the team in receptions, excelling in the “big slot” role.
Jefferson’s draft stock then soared at the NFL Combine. He ran an impressive 4.43-second 40-yard dash, blazing speed for a slot player. Based on that performance and his college production, I predicted Jefferson to be a late first-round NFL Draft pick and suggested the Saints or Packers as destinations. I expected that he would go to a team with one or two established outside receivers and would play the same big slot role that he occupied in college. Even in that role, I thought Jefferson had an excellent chance to see targets as a rookie, potentially becoming a WR3 in PPR leagues.
Jefferson hit on my draft capital prediction, as he went to the Vikings with the 22nd overall pick, one pick behind Reagor. However, I’m not too fond of his landing spot in Minnesota. On the one hand, the Vikings do have a significant hole at wide receiver opposite Adam Thielen after they traded Stefon Diggs. Diggs averaged 107 targets and 925 receiving yards per year in his five years on the Vikings, and the Vikings did little else to replace Diggs in the offense. They signed journeyman Tajae Sharpe and have 2019 sixth-rounder Bisi Johnson on the roster, but neither inspire any confidence.
Unfortunately, I don’t see how Jefferson fits in on the Vikings. The Vikings are a run-first team offense led by Dalvin Cook, assuming Cook returns from his holdout before Week 1. They only threw 466 passes in 2019, third-lowest in the NFL. Also, they have two receiving tight ends in Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith, Jr. Their best offensive option is to utilize 12 personnel with both tight ends on the field simultaneously. Therefore, the majority of the time, there would be no slot receiver position, forcing Jefferson to play on the outside. While I think Jefferson could succeed there long-term, I don’t expect a rookie to come in and perform well in a different position.
Because of those concerns, Jefferson has fallen to WR46 in my redraft rankings. I expect the Vikings to feed Thielen with high target volume and to spread the rest around to Jefferson, Smith Jr., Rudolph, and Cook. Even though I have Jefferson ranked higher than Reagor, I think Reagor has far more upside as a rookie. I doubt I’ll draft Jefferson in 2020 since he’s only a dull, low ceiling option without an injury to one of the Vikings’ other pass-catchers.
Henry Ruggs
Of all these players, Ruggs has had the most significant increase in value since my previous writing. I wasn’t a fan of Ruggs when I wrote my last article. Ruggs never truly broke out at Alabama. He consistently produced less than Jeudy and sometimes found himself the third or fourth receiving option on the team. I saw Ruggs as a pure burner, not a complete receiver.
At the NFL Combine, Ruggs proved he had the speed we saw on tape, running the 40-yard dash in a blazing 4.27 seconds. He also demolished the jumping drills with strong performances in both the vertical and broad jumps. I expected Ruggs to be a top-15 pick in the NFL Draft, although behind Lamb and Jeudy. I also thought that Ruggs would come in as his new team’s third option since he’s not a complete receiver, especially not as a rookie.
However, the Raiders drafted Ruggs with the 12th overall pick. There is zero doubt that Ruggs is the top wide receiver on the Raiders, similar to Marquise Brown as a rookie on the Ravens in 2019. Tyrell Williams will still get some snaps, and Hunter Renfrow will play the slot, but neither is a real challenge for Ruggs. The Raiders also drafted Bryan Edwards in the third round, but with his inferior draft capital, I can’t see Edwards taking snaps from Ruggs.
Therefore, Ruggs will compete with tight end Darren Waller to be the Raiders’ top receiving target. Unfortunately, I don’t like Raiders’ quarterback Derek Carr, who seems to be unable to throw downfield and loves to dump the ball short to Waller. Even so, Ruggs will get targets right away, and I’m willing to add him to my redraft roster. Ruggs comes in as my top rookie receiver in redraft formats, although he’s only my WR41. Like all rookie wide receivers, I believe in fading them during the draft process and waiting until mid-season to pick them up when other owners drop them. I worry that Ruggs will get consistent targets from the start, and you won’t be able to get him later. That’s why I recommend picking him during the draft.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Original Redraft Rookie Breakdown Series: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4
NFL Draft Quick Takes: Round 1, Round 2, Round 3, Rounds 4-7
