Back in March, I did a four-part series on the incoming rookie class. Now, it’s time to go back through my takes and examine how they’ve changed in the past few months. I’ve included all four of my original articles, and all my live post-draft takes as links at the bottom of this article. In part one, I looked at the progression of top rookie quarterbacks from March until now. Then, in part two, I covered how the consensus top-three running backs pre-NFL Draft have progressed in redraft value. Now, it’s time for part three and a mix of two running backs and two wide receivers. Let’s jump into these four exciting players!
Cam Akers
Back in March, I had a tepid outlook on Akers as a fantasy football running back prospect. At the time, he was my RB4 behind Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, and J.K. Dobbins, just ahead of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He struggled for production at Florida State, averaging only 4.9 YPC. However, his tape far exceeded his raw numbers, primarily due to the team’s horrid offensive line. Akers excelled at the NFL Combine, which boosted his draft stock, and I predicted that Akers would be a third-round pick. I thought Akers would find himself in a committee, likely splitting touches or behind an established running back.
Akers beat my prediction in the real NFL Draft. The Rams selected him with the 52nd overall pick, giving Akers coveted second-round draft capital. Also, unlike my expectations, Akers joined a backfield without any established players. The Rams recently released longtime starter Todd Gurley and only have Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown as competition for Akers. Henderson had only 39 carries as a third-round rookie in 2019, and Brown is a career backup who will provide depth.
Therefore, Akers is the favorite to take the Rams’ starting job immediately in 2020. Gurley leaves behind 223 carries, most of which will go to Akers. While I believe Henderson could slightly expand his role in his second season, I’m confident that Akers will play ahead of him. Akers is a superior talent with higher draft capital and hasn’t already failed on an NFL field. Akers is my RB26, but he could easily beat that price if he quickly adapts to the different speed and style of the NFL game.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Of all rookies, Edwards-Helaire jumped the most in value from my March article series to now. At that time, I had Edwards-Helaire as my RB5 in the rookie class. In his three-year college career, he barely made a mark in 2017 and 2018, playing as an unheralded backup in both seasons. While he sat behind top prospect Derrius Guice in 2017, he also lost work to Nick Brossette in 2018.
However, after two underwhelming seasons, Edwards-Helaire skyrocketed in 2019. He excelled both on the ground and through the air. I predicted that Edwards-Helaire would be a third-round pick and would profile as a Tarik Cohen-type player. I said he had no workhorse upside, and wouldn’t be much of a fantasy asset as a rookie. I saw Edwards-Helaire as the clear RB5 in the class and not on the other prospects’ level.
Well, that prediction and analysis couldn’t have been more wrong. The Chiefs made Edwards-Helaire a first-round pick and the first running back off the board. He went to a relatively empty depth chart on a top NFL offense, with only Damien Williams as serious competition for carries. Edwards-Helaire jumped from my rookie RB5 to my RB1, even though I haven’t changed my opinion that he’s the fifth most talented running back in the class. He’s on the border of being a dynasty first-round startup pick, which I find entirely reasonable.
In redraft, though, I’m a bit wary of paying an inflated price for Edwards-Helaire. The most important part of a redraft season is the first few games, and I think Edwards-Helaire will split touches with Williams at first. I stand by my assessment that Edwards-Helaire isn’t a real workhorse back, and I don’t think he’ll ever see 225-250 carries in any season, let alone his rookie year. With the shortened offseason, the Chiefs might ease him into action, and fantasy owners could be slightly disappointed in his first few games.
Therefore, Edwards-Helaire is my RB14 and 26th overall player. I’m not comfortable spending one of my first two picks on him since he might not be usable in the first few weeks. However, he has the upside to be the RB1 overall in fantasy football if he gets 70-75% of the Chiefs’ backfield touches. I think that the draft price perfectly encapsulates his mixture of upside and risk.
CeeDee Lamb
At the time of writing, Lamb was my dynasty rookie WR1, and he was also the rookie I expected to have the most significant immediate impact in redraft leagues. Lamb had a stellar career at Oklahoma, putting up 1,158 and 1,327 receiving yards in his final two seasons. In 2019, he averaged 21.4 YPR and scored 14 touchdowns. Also, at the NFL Combine, Lamb excelled in the receiving drills. Because of his superior and complete profile, I fully believed that Lamb would be the first receiver off the board, ahead of both Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy, and I thought that Lamb could come in and be an NFL team’s WR1 from the jump.
However, none of that came to pass in the NFL Draft. Lamb was the third wide receiver picked, after Ruggs and Jeudy. Additionally, he went to the Cowboys with the 17th overall pick, where he joins a crowded receiving group. Unlike almost any other team, Lamb will begin as the WR3 behind Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. While I think Lamb has more raw talent than either player, both Cooper and Gallup had over 1,100 yards in 2019. Considering the pandemic-shortened offseason, the Cowboys will not take snaps from their proven veteran receivers to give playing time to a rookie.
Ironically, Lamb’s “poor” landing spot has dropped his value enough for me to draft Lamb on redraft teams. For example, if Lamb went to the Raiders, who drafted Ruggs, he would be the immediate WR1 on the team and would likely have significant redraft hype. Lamb is the clear WR3 on the Cowboys, but the Cowboys have an opening at the slot receiver position, vacated by Randall Cobb. In 2019, Cobb had 55 receptions on 83 targets for 828 yards and three touchdowns, finishing as the WR44.
New Cowboys’ head coach Mike McCarthy used 3WR base sets with the Packers, so I expect Lamb to see approximately 60% of snaps in 2020. Lamb should improve on Cobb’s production, but he also has handcuff value as insurance for Cooper or Gallup. Dak Prescott threw for 4,902 yards in 2019, and he will produce fantasy stars. I believe the Cowboys could be the new Rams, supporting three fantasy-viable wide receivers. Either way, I have Lamb ranked as my WR44 in my redraft rankings, exactly where Cobb finished in 2019. At that price, Lamb comes with little to no risk and an insane upside.
Jerry Jeudy
When I wrote my original preview, I ranked Jeudy slightly behind Lamb in my rookie wide receiver rankings. Jeudy won the 2018 Biletnikoff Award for the best college receiver and was the consensus top receiver in the class heading into 2019. In 2018, Jeudy caught 68 passes for 1,315 yards and 14 touchdowns, which was a fantastic season.
However, Lamb’s strong 2019 season pushed Jeudy down a spot, although certainly not because Jeudy failed in 2019. Jeudy didn’t quite live up to his 2018 heights, but he recorded 77 receptions for 1,163 yards and 10 touchdowns, another solid season. Jeudy then ran a solid 4.45 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine and looked excellent in the receiving drills. Jeudy profiles as a strong route-runner at the NFL level and as a versatile weapon in any NFL offense.
Jeudy met my pre-draft expectations for his draft capital. The Broncos selected him as the second wide receiver taken with the 15th overall pick. Unlike Lamb, I never saw Jeudy as a player who could step in and take the alpha receiver role from Week 1. However, Jeudy fits in perfectly as a possession-style complement to Courtland Sutton. Sutton is the prototypical big play, outside receiver, while Jeudy can move all over the field and use his superior route-running in short areas.
Even though I believe Jeudy will fit in well in the Broncos’ real-life offense, it’s hard to imagine a massive fantasy ceiling in Year 1. The Broncos have Sutton, tight end Noah Fant, and drafted fellow rookie wide receiver K.J. Hamler in the second round. Jeudy will immediately be a starter in all offensive sets alongside Sutton, but the Broncos are not a high-powered offense.
The Broncos also signed Melvin Gordon in free agency and have Phillip Lindsay in the backfield. Drew Lock is an exciting young quarterback, but he is still relatively unproven. Therefore, the Broncos will likely lean on their running game and limit their passing volume. Jeudy should have PPR value and provide a somewhat high floor for a rookie wide receiver, but I don’t see too much more than that. He’s my WR42 in redraft leagues.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Original Redraft Rookie Breakdown Series: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4
NFL Draft Quick Takes: Round 1, Round 2, Round 3, Rounds 4-7
