Early 2020 Rookie Redraft Primer Part 4

Part 1 of this article series focused on the incoming rookie quarterbacks. Then, part 2 and part 3 covered running backs and the top two wide receivers. In this fourth and final part, I will cover four more incoming rookie wide receivers. All of these players come with question marks, but I believe each of them at least has a shot to provide fantasy value in 2020.

Jalen Reagor (WR – TCU)

Reagor had an up and down career at TCU. In 2017, as a freshman, Reagor recorded a solid 33 receptions for 576 yards and eight touchdowns. Then, in 2018, he fully broke out with 72 receptions for 1,061 yards and nine touchdowns. He also added 13 rushing attempts for 170 yards and two touchdowns. He had more than double the receptions and yards of the next highest player at TCU, so he was a clear alpha wide receiver. 

However, in 2019, the wheels came off. Reagor had just 43 catches for 611 yards and five touchdowns, a far cry from his 2018 season. Many blame the poor play of quarterback Max Duggan and his 53.4% completion rate for Reagor’s down season. Because of Duggan, the whole TCU offense performed poorly as a result of his terrible play. Reagor still led the team in all receiving categories, so his status as the number one option had not changed. Either way, a significant drop in production in college is a red flag on Reagor’s profile, even if there were other factors at play.

At the NFL Combine, some expected Reagor to compete for the fastest 40-yard dash. While he did run a quick 4.47-sec., he was nowhere near Henry Ruggs and his 4.27-sec. time. Reagor also disappointed in the 3-cone drill with a slow time of 7.31-sec., third-slowest of all receivers. His combine wasn’t a complete bust, though. He did finish second-best in the broad jump and tied for second-best in the vertical jump. However, his disappointing speed and agility numbers were the headlines.

Before the combine, I believed Reagor had a chance to be a first-round NFL Draft pick. Now, I think he’s going to go in the top half of the second round. I do believe that Reagor could step into a small role from the start of 2020. His best-case scenario is to come into a WR2 role behind a clear, established WR1. The Colts are an interesting destination for Reagor. They pick at 34th and 44th overall and require a second receiver across from T.Y. Hilton for new quarterback Philip Rivers.

Additionally, the Colts could deploy Hilton, Reagor, and Parris Campbell in versatile roles, moving each around the formation. Whether Reagor goes to the Colts or not, I don’t think he’ll be very relevant for redraft formats. Keep track of him, but he’s someone to ignore during draft season. Watch the waiver wire to pick him up in-season, though.

Tee Higgins (WR – Clemson)

Higgins was a reliable receiver during his time at Clemson. As an 18-year old true freshman in 2017, Higgins displayed some of his raw talents. He competed with Hunter Renfrow and Deon Cain for targets and still managed to see the field. Even though he caught just 17 passes for 345 yards and two touchdowns, he showed enough for Clemson to make him a starter in 2018.

 In 2018, Clemson uncovered superstar quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Because of Lawrence’s stellar play, Clemson’s offense had four relevant receivers: Higgins, Renfrow, Amari Rodgers, and devy darling Justyn Ross. Even in such a crowded group, Higgins led in receptions and touchdowns with 59 receptions and 12 touchdowns. He also finished second in yards with 936 to Ross’ 1,000. Since Ross was just a freshman in 2018, most expected Ross to become the alpha receiver in 2019, relegating Higgins to the #2 role.

However, Higgins continued his progression in 2019. He once again had 59 receptions but turned those into 1,167 yards and 13 touchdowns. He had more yards and touchdowns than Ross, although Ross had more receptions with 66. Because of his consistent success, Higgins declared for the draft and expected to be a top receiver in this 2020 class.

That projection seems to have changed in recent weeks, though. Higgins completely skipped the NFL Combine. That decision suggests that he would not have performed up to expectations in drills. He did work out at Clemson’s pro day and put up some pretty ugly numbers. He ran a 4.54 in the 40-yard dash, which is about on par with what most expected. However, he had a 31-inch vertical jump and a 4.53 short shuttle time. His vertical jump would have ranked third-to-last at the NFL Combine, and the short shuttle would have ranked fourth-slowest.

Therefore, Higgins is a story of production versus testing numbers. I think that NFL teams will come down in the middle, and Higgins will fall from the first to the second round. Higgins is more of a big-body receiver and would likely pair well with a team that has a deep threat as their WR1. The Texans just traded DeAndre Hopkins away and received the 40th overall pick in that deal. They now have a massive void at wide receiver, with only burners Will Fuller and Kenny Stills and the failed experiment of Keke Coutee on their roster. Higgins would make perfect sense there and could have some fantasy appeal right away. However, unless Higgins goes to a prime landing spot like Houston, he’ll likely fall off my draft board entirely. He’s landing-spot dependent for me. Additionally, if he falls out of the second round, I’ll ignore him in redraft, as typically late-round receivers make poor redraft selections. 

Justin Jefferson (WR – LSU)

Unlike Higgins and Reagor, Jefferson has massively improved his stock since the end of the college football season. Even though he recently came into greater focus for both fantasy owners and NFL teams, let’s not forget that Jefferson was a star at LSU. In 2017, he didn’t produce at all, sitting behind D.J. Chark and Russell Gage. Then, in 2018, Jefferson was the WR1 for LSU. He led the team in catches, yards, and touchdowns. His 2018 line was 54 catches for 875 yards and six touchdowns, perfectly respectable for a true sophomore.

However, in 2019, LSU underwent a transformation that nobody saw coming. Joe Burrow became a Heisman Trophy quarterback, and the offense exploded. Both Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase broke out behind Burrow’s stellar season. Jefferson had 111 receptions, 1,540 yards, and 18 touchdowns. While some focused more on Chase’s 84 catches for 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns, Jefferson’s success was also impressive. Jefferson tied for first in all of college football in receptions and finished second in touchdowns behind Chase.

Despite Jefferson’s strong 2019 season, he did not receive as much attention coming into draft season as some other wide receiver prospects. However, at the NFL Combine, Jefferson excelled. Jefferson ran a blazing 4.43-second 40-yard dash. While it certainly wasn’t the fastest time among receivers, nobody expected him to break 4.5 seconds. That time alone vaulted Jefferson’s stock into the first round of most NFL mock drafts.

Assuming Jefferson goes in the first round, he will likely make some impact in year one. Jefferson profiles as a big slot receiver in the NFL, similar to the role he played across from Chase at LSU in 2019. Most likely, he will go near the back of the first round. The team that picks him will probably have an established outside receiver or two but a void in the slot. The Saints at pick 24 and the Packers at pick 30 are my two favorite landing spots. Jefferson could learn from either Michael Thomas or Davante Adams, and both offenses pass the ball enough for him to produce year one. I’m not expecting him to be a fantasy WR1 or even a WR2, but he could easily deliver WR3 value if he lands in the right situation.   

Henry Ruggs (WR – Alabama)

Ruggs is an entirely different type of player than any of the previous receivers. He is a burner, and his speed is his primary trait. In his 2017 freshman season, he had just 12 receptions for 229 yards but scored six touchdowns. While a total of 12 receptions is not impressive, he scored on half his catches. Therefore, Alabama expected Ruggs to take a step forward in 2018, along with new starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. 

In 2018, Alabama evolved their offense and suddenly opened up their passing game. Their quarterbacks combined for almost 5,000 yards and their offense supported five significant receiving weapons. Jerry Jeudy was the clear number one option, but Ruggs, Jaylen Waddle, Irv Smith, Jr., and Devonta Smith had very similar production. Ruggs had 46 catches for 741 yards and 11 touchdowns, placing him second in catches and touchdowns and third in yards.

With Irv Smith, Jr. leaving for the NFL after 2018, Ruggs had an opportunity to take a further step forward in 2019. However, that did not happen. Devonta Smith was the player that made a big jump, not Ruggs. Ruggs almost repeated his 2018 line, with 40 receptions for 746 yards and only seven touchdowns. Ruggs was the clear third option in 2019 behind Jeudy and Devonta Smith.

Therefore, when Ruggs declared for the 2020 NFL Draft, he immediately became an incredibly controversial prospect. His speed made him an exciting prospect, but there were legitimate questions about how a player that never dominated in college would succeed in the NFL. The NFL Combine helped Ruggs’ case as a prospect. He blew away the field with a 4.27-second time in the 40-yard dash. Additionally, he had the second-best vertical jump and a top-half broad jump. Ruggs displayed the measurables that everyone expected coming in, but seeing them vaulted his stock even further.

Ruggs will be a first-round selection in the 2020 NFL Draft. Any team investing in Ruggs will know that his speed will get him on the field from day one. However, Ruggs is unlikely to see a large number of targets straight from the jump. I expect Ruggs to come in as the third option wherever he lands, behind the team’s number one receiver and either a possession receiver or tight end. For example, some mock drafts have had Ruggs going to the Broncos with the 15th overall pick. He would slot in there behind Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant in the pecking order for targets. Unfortunately for Ruggs, I think he’ll provide more value to his NFL team than to your fantasy team. I would not select Ruggs in redraft formats, no matter where he lands. However, if he develops, he could make for a nice dynasty asset down the line.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.