2022 Projections: Green Bay Packers

When we loosely compare players, most people feel they have a good idea of what kind of production to expect. We may think “Aaron Rodgers is one of the best QBs in the NFL, surely he is still an elite fantasy option without Davante Adams.” But, these may just be unrealistic goals to set even for a player of Rodgers’ caliber, with the weapons he has. I make projections to ground myself and help to understand what is actually possible, probable, or realistic. So, in this series, I will be going through each NFL team and making median projections for their 2022 seasons with their most fantasy-relevant players. I may be able to discern if certain players are being undervalued immediately but in most cases, I will need to finish more teams to get a good idea. 

First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last two to three seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush attempt shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, touchdown shares, etc. As well as team-focused metrics like pass-to-rush play ratio (this is team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass-to-rush touchdown ratio, and plays per game. I then use these past trends to predict what will be in store for 2022. Here are my projections for the Green Bay Packers’ fantasy-relevant players. 

Scoring: Full PPR, six-point passing touchdowns, .04 points per pass yard, 0.1 points per rush/rec yards. 

2022 is going to bring us a new-look Packers offense. No Davante Adams, and no real elite threat at wide receiver. I project the Packers to be a bit more run-heavy and allow Rodgers to be great when they need him to be instead of throwing 40 passes a game. I still have Rodgers projected for a very good season, it just is not one that would make him considered to be an elite fantasy QB at 22 points per game. The position you really want to own in this offense is running back. Aaron Jones projects to see a good amount of carries and a ton of targets, pushing him up to almost 16 PPR ppg. Unfortunately for him, I have him losing a good number of touchdowns to AJ Dillon who projects to be a stable RB2 himself without even getting an Aaron Jones injury. This is what makes Dillon such an enticing draft option for me this year. He has an RB2 price, and an RB2 projection while behind a high-volume option. If that option were to get injured, Dillon has immediate top-six running back upside. 

This wide receiver room is one of the most ambiguous in the NFL this year, which is why I have drafted all of these guys multiple times. With an ADP of WR44, I am not sure how everyone isn’t drafting Allen Lazard 10 spots over ADP. He will no doubt in my mind finish as a WR3 or higher and carries the upside to be a mid-tier WR2. I love his price and drafting him often. I have also been drafting Christian Watson, just not as much. His price is similar, and his upside is similar but his floor is lower. All of these factors when compared to Lazard make Lazard the easy first choice in my drafts. Cobb is interesting as well, he carries a similar upside to the other receivers but with a much lower chance to reach that upside. At his cost, he is a fine dart throw but I have drafted the least of Cobb. Tonyan is a very TD-dependent tight end that is better for best-ball than a traditional redraft league. In redraft, I want more high-volume tight ends than high-TD upside because of the unpredictability. 

The Packers’ offense figures to take a step back in not only volume but efficiency. I am not touching Rodgers or Tonyan. I am prioritizing AJ Dillon and Allen Lazard and I am drafting Aaron Jones, Watson, and Cobb at cost. Follow these recommendations and you will find yourself having an easier road to achieving fantasy glory.

Previous Teams: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys

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