I’d like to give a big shoutout to Matt (@PyschWardFF on Twitter) for taking over Paul’s Picks in Week 10. I hope you took his advice and started D’Ernest Johnson, Hunter Renfrow, Rashod Bateman, DeVonta Smith, and Tyler Conklin. He was also right about benching my beloved D.J. Moore, who struggled in the midst of Carolina’s QB transition. Matt is a Swiss army knife of content at DFF, so make sure you check out his other work on the site. Meanwhile, I’ll be bringing you names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or fall flat in Week 11.

Let’s get into the picks.

Starts – Quarterbacks

Cam Newton, Panthers vs. Washington

Cam Newton is back in Carolina where it all began, and he’s expected to start this Sunday against the Washington Football Team. Cam had some rough performances during his stint in New England, but he also had many fantasy-relevant performances due to his rushing ability. With a solid supporting cast, I believe Cam has QB1 upside this week against Washington, the number-one matchup for fantasy QBs this season. 

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins @ Jets

Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t been a top-tier fantasy QB this season, but he has been able to beat up on lesser defenses. He finished as the QB10 against the Jaguars in Week 6 and the QB1 against the Falcons in Week 7. Against the Jets, who have allowed their opponents to score an average of 43 points per game over the last four weeks, Tua is a solid start. 

Honorable Mention: Justin Fields, Bears vs. Ravens

Starts – Running Backs

AJ Dillon, Packers @ Vikings

You should be excited–and I mean very excited–about AJ Dillon, starting running back for the Green Bay Packers. Dillon is an athletic freak almost on par with Derrick Henry, and he has flashed huge potential in relief of Aaron Jones so far this season. Now, as the unquestioned starter, he is an absolute must-start with top-5 upside. 

Myles Gaskin, Dolphins @ Jets

Myles Gaskin had an ugly performance on Thursday night, but his peripheral numbers were encouraging. He played 60% of the offensive snaps and handled 73% of the RB opportunities while Salvon Ahmed handled the remainder. That level of usage should lead to a lot more fantasy points against the Jets, who have allowed the most points to opposing RBs this season by a wide margin. 

Mark Ingram, Saints @ Eagles

In the absence of Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram became a workhorse for the Saints. He played 85% of the offensive snaps and handled 84% of the RB opportunities, which included seven targets. I’m not expecting Mark Ingram to maintain a 20% target share, but he should continue to see plenty of touches as long as Kamara is sidelined. 

Honorable Mention: Elijah Mitchell, 49ers @ Jaguars

Starts – Wide Receivers

D.J. Moore, Panthers vs. Washington

He hasn’t topped 73 receiving yards or scored a TD since Week 4, but I refuse to give up on D.J. Moore. He ranks 4th among all WRs in targets, 6th in target share, and 7th in air yards. He’s an incredibly talented player who, once again, has had to deal with awful play at the quarterback position. There’s no guarantee that will change with Cam Newton under center, but Newton and Moore are both set up for success against this porous Washington defense. 

Michael Gallup, Cowboys @ Chiefs

In his first appearance since Week 1, Michael Gallup caught three of five targets for 42 yards. He looked healthy, and he actually out-targeted Amari Cooper despite running twelve fewer routes. With so many talented pass-catchers in Dallas, consistency will be a problem for Gallup. However, I like his chances to deliver a flex-worthy performance in Week 11 when the Cowboys face the Chiefs in what should be a high-scoring matchup. 

Cole Beasley, Bills vs. Colts

You wouldn’t expect a slot receiver with an average target distance ranked outside the top 100 to be a boom or bust fantasy option, but that’s exactly what Cole Beasley has been this season. Beasley’s boom games have all come with 9 or more targets, mostly in close games. I expect the Colts to keep things close against the Bills in Week 11, which bodes well for Beasley having another high-target game. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that the Colts are allowing the 4th-most points to WRs this season. 

Honorable Mention: Jakobi Meyers, Patriots @ Falcons

Starts – Tight Ends

Dawson Knox, Bills vs. Colts

The Colts have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. In Week 10, they allowed Dan Arnold to catch 5 passes for 67 yards and a two-point conversion. Like Arnold, Dawson Knox is a hyper-athletic, pass-catching tight end, but he has the benefit of being tied to a prolific offense and an elite QB in Josh Allen. Considering the dearth of talent at tight end, you really have no business benching Knox in this matchup. 

Honorable Mention: Hunter Henry, Patriots @ Falcons

Sits – Quarterbacks

Carson Wentz, Colts @ Bills

From Week 5 to Week 9, Carson Wentz never finished a week outside the top fourteen QBs. That streak was snapped in Week 10 when Wentz posted a surprise dud against the Jaguars. Now he’ll have to travel to Buffalo to take on the number-one defense against fantasy QBs. I’d be looking for a better option this week. 

Matt Ryan, Falcons vs. Patriots

Poor Matt Ryan. In under twelve months, he lost Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, one of the league’s most imposing WR duos. As you might expect, Ryan’s fantasy production has suffered as a result. He did, surprisingly, finish as the QB3 in Week 9; however, this performance was sandwiched between two single-digit outings in Weeks 8 and 10. And now Cordarrelle Patterson is expected to miss this week’s game, further depleting an already-depleted arsenal. You just can’t trust Ryan to come through against this tough Patriots’ defense.

Sits – Running Backs

Zack Moss, Bills vs. Colts

I don’t really understand what happened in Week 10. Seemingly out of nowhere, the Bills turned what was a two-man RB committee into a three-headed monster. Matt Breida’s six touches cut into the workload of both Zack Moss and Devin Singletary, and both players were only bailed out by late TDs. If the touches are split this way moving forward, it will be very difficult to rely on Zack Moss down the stretch.

Jordan Howard, Eagles vs. Saints

The return of Jordan Howard has been a fun surprise (unless you roster Kenny Gainwell), but I’m not expecting many fantasy points this week. The Saints are allowing fewer than 75 rushing yards per game, which is the best mark in the league. Meanwhile, Howard has 0 receptions on the year. Basically, it’s TD or bust and that’s not a bet I’m interested in making.

Sits – Wide Receivers

Mike Williams, Chargers vs. Steelers

After seeing an average of ten targets per game across the first five weeks of the season, Mike Williams has seen just five targets per game over his last four. Essentially, his opportunities per game have been cut in half. However, these recent performances are more in line with the Mike Williams we have seen in past seasons, so I wouldn’t be counting on a bounce-back any time soon. He may have a few more boom weeks this season, but you will probably be disappointed more often than not.

Kenny Golladay, Giants @ Buccaneers

Despite signing a big contract this offseason, Kenny Golladay hasn’t really stepped up as a number-one receiver in New York. He has battled multiple injuries, but even in his healthy games, his target share is just over 16%. In a Daniel Jones offense, that’s just not exciting.

Honorable Mention: Deonte Harris, Saints @ Eagles; Tyler Boyd, Bengals @ Raiders

Sits – Tight Ends

Gerald Everett, Seahawks vs. Cardinals

Russell Wilson struggled to get the ball to his receivers in his first game back, perhaps due to some residual pain or stiffness. As a result, Wilson opted for more short passes, and Gerald Everett finished with eight receptions. It was his first double-digit outing since Week 3, but I’m not expecting a repeat performance against the Cardinals, who have been tough on tight ends this season.

Thanks for reading this article! Look me up on Twitter at @fantasyfreezer if you’d like to hear more from me. I love answering fantasy questions, discussing trades, and engaging in friendly debates, so be sure to drop in and say hello.

You can read the previous articles in this series here:  Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7, Week 8, Week 9, Psych’s Picks – Week 10