I’m not going to lie, the “starts” were brutal in Week 6. Taylor Heinicke, Chase Edmonds, Kenny Gainwell, Tee Higgins, and Michael Pittman failed to provide average performances, let alone exceed expectations. I refuse to take the L on Kadarius Toney, though, who had three receptions for 36 yards before being injured in the first quarter. Unfortunately, with six more teams on a bye this week, my job won’t be getting any easier. As always, I’ll be bringing you names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or fall flat.
Let’s get into the picks.
Starts: Quarterbacks
Ryan Tannehill, Titans vs. Chiefs
As predicted, Ryan Tannehill underperformed in a tough matchup against the Bills. However, I’m expecting a bit of a bounce-back in Week 7. The Chiefs are allowing the 2nd-most points to opposing QBs this season even after limiting Taylor Heinicke to just 10 points last week. With A.J. Brown back in the lineup, and Patrick Mahomes forcing the Titans into passing situations, I believe Tannehill can come through with his second top-12 finish of the season.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins vs. Falcons
Tua looked good in his first game back from injury. He threw for 329 yards and two TDs against the Jaguars, finishing as the QB10 for the week. He should get DeVante Parker back in the lineup for a Week 7 matchup against the Falcons, who have been carved up by Jalen Hurts, Tom Brady, and Taylor Heinecke. He’s a solid fill-in if you have Allen, Prescott, Herbert, or Cousins on bye.
Starts: Running Backs
Darrel Williams, Chiefs @ Titans
Darrel Williams did exactly what you might expect a backup RB on a great offense to do: rush for 3.0 YPC and score two TDs. His 72% snap share and 75.8% RB opportunity share were actually the highest for any RB on the team since Week 1. He’s not an exciting runner, but as long as the Chiefs are content to feed him touches you should be content to start him.
Elijah Mitchell, 49ers vs. Colts
The Elijah Mitchell hype has died down a bit since his Week 1 explosion, but, in reality, nothing has changed. Mitchell returned from injury in Week 5 and immediately relegated Trey Sermon to a backup role. He recorded a 67% snap share and 61% opportunity share against the Cardinals. Coming off the bye week, I expect Mitchell to maintain his stranglehold on the San Francisco backfield. He should handle 15+ touches against the Colts.
Josh Jacobs, Raiders vs. Eagles
Josh Jacobs has played in four games this season, and his carries and scrimmage yards have increased in each game. I believe he could set new season-highs again in Week 7 against the Eagles, who have allowed the 5th-most rushing yards per game this season. Jacobs has rushed for just 3.2 YPC this season, but you shouldn’t bench an RB with a top-10 opportunity share that’s a home favorite against a poor rush defense.
Starts: Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown, Titans vs. Chiefs
In Week 6, A.J. Brown finally looked like the dominant receiver that fantasy managers thought they were getting in the second round of drafts. In a high-scoring, back-and-forth game against the Bills, Brown turned nine targets into seven receptions for 91 yards. He had a 31% target share coming off a hamstring injury and food poisoning. I finally gave you permission to bench him, so I will be taking all the credit for his resurgence. With Julio Jones out of the lineup, Brown is back in must-start territory against the Chiefs.
Allen Robinson, Bears @ Buccaneers
It’s do-or-die time for Allen Robinson in Week 7. He hasn’t finished any week this season inside the top-45 WRs, but he does have nearly a 25% target share. The problem is that Chicago’s offense has gone run-heavy since Justin Fields stepped in. His 27 attempts in Week 6 were a career high. Robinson continued to disappoint in that game, but he did have 171 air yards, which is encouraging. And this week, he’ll be playing in what should be a negative game script against the banged-up Buccaneers’ secondary. Just cross your fingers and play Allen Robinson one more time.
Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins vs. Falcons
I knew the Jaylen Waddle breakout was coming, but I definitely didn’t expect such a dominant showing so soon. He finished as the overall WR4 in Week 6 with 10 receptions for 70 yards and two TDs. And that game was anything but a fluke. Waddle’s 21.6% target share is incredibly high for a rookie, and it’s the reason he’s 8th among all WRs in receptions. His 8.1 YPR (outside the top 100) leaves something to be desired, but, with his speed, the big plays will inevitably come. He should be a solid flex play moving forward.
Starts: Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki, Dolphins vs. Falcons
Oh no, another Dolphin? I just can’t help myself. After a quiet start to the season, Mike Gesicki has really elevated his game. He ranks 5th among all TEs in targets, 3rd in air yards, and 1st in air yards share. He’s 10th in PPG despite posting a 0 in Week 1 and scoring just 1 TD on the season. As long as this usage keeps up, you have to keep rolling with Gesicki.
Sits: Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow, Bengals @ Ravens
Somehow, Joe Burrow has thrown for multiple TDs in every game this season. I expect that streak to end in Baltimore this week. The Ravens have allowed the 7th-fewest points per game this season, and they just shut down Justin Herbert and the Chargers in Week 6.
Sam Darnold, Panthers @ Giants
After a hot start to the season, Sam Darnold has come back down to earth in recent weeks. He’s no longer piling up rushing TDs at an unsustainable pace, and he’s thrown six interceptions over his past three games. With Christian McCaffrey and Terrace Marshall injured, and Dan Arnold now in Jacksonville, the Panthers’ arsenal is somewhat depleted, as well. Look elsewhere this week.
Sits: Running Backs
Myles Gaskin, Dolphins @ Buccaneers
After placing several (probably too many) Dolphins in the start column, it’s time to balance things out with Myles Gaskin. Outside of his bizarre 2-TD performance in Week 5, Gaskin has been a disappointment this season. In Week 6, he played on a season-low 35% of snaps, splitting almost evenly with Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed. He’s clearly capable of fantasy-relevant performances, but you can’t start him until the team shows some interest in giving him the ball.
D’Ernest Johnson, Browns vs. Broncos
I’m really sorry that you missed out on all of the good waiver-wire RBs this season, but you can’t start D’Ernest Johnson with any level of confidence. With Case Keenum at QB, the Browns’ offense is going to struggle, and a negative game script could force them to abandon the run early. To make matters worse, the Broncos have allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards per game this season.
Sits: Wide Receivers
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks vs. Saints
The Geno Smith era might not be a good one for Tyler Lockett. He and D.K. Metcalf were both targeted 7 times on Sunday Night Football, but Lockett finished the game with just 2 receptions for 35 yards–a 28% catch rate. With so much of his game predicated on chemistry and timing, Lockett may continue to struggle until Russell Wilson returns to the lineup. You can bench him for this tough matchup against the Saints.
Tyler Boyd, Bengals @ Ravens
Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tyler Boyd were all drafted as top-36 fantasy receivers this offseason with the expectation that the Bengals would be a pass-heavy team. Unfortunately for Boyd, that assumption was way off. The Bengals have actually been below-average in pass rate, which has left Boyd as the odd man out when all three receivers have been healthy. With a reduced role and a very tough matchup, Boyd looks like a stay-away in Week 7.
Sits: Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee, Rams vs. Lions
Tyler Higbee has had some strong performances this season, but his usage is actually fairly poor. He ranks 33rd in TE target share and 17th in overall TE targets. Higbee plays in a pass-friendly offense with a good QB, which offsets some of the concerns about his market share numbers. However, the Rams are big favorites against the Lions this week, so they might be handing the ball off an awful lot in the second half. That isn’t a recipe for success for Tyler Higbee
Thanks for reading this article! Look me up on Twitter at @fantasyfreezer if you’d like to hear more from me. I love answering fantasy questions, discussing trades, and engaging in friendly debates, so be sure to drop in and say hello.
You can read the previous articles in this series here: Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6
