Welcome back to this week’s edition of Fantasy Fact or Cap for Dynasty Football Factory, the article with hot questions and even hotter answers. I’m your host, Matt Ward, and I have a laundry list of trending narratives to break down for you today. Without further ado, let’s look at some of the most talked-about topics in fantasy football and decipher whether they are fact or straight cap.
Matthew Stafford Plays Worse With Odell Beckham Jr.
In-Season Splits
245 CMP/363 ATT/3014 YDS/24 TD/8 INT – 23 RSH/38 YDS/0 TD
CAP
After a baffling loss to the 49ers, people are genuinely questioning if the arrival of Odell Beckham Jr. is a hindrance to Matthew Stafford’s production. Our very own Joe Memmolo Jr. disputed that in his article“OMG, OBJ to LAR.” As if the mere presence of a former all-pro receiver has somehow ruined Stafford’s MVP trajectory. This narrative can be squashed with a simple look at OBJ’s opportunity share in the Rams’ loss.
OBJ was only on the field for 15 snaps. He ran a simple 10 routes and was targeted three times. What people refuse to see are the underlying positives behind OBJ’s first game. As a new arrival in a completely new offensive system, OBJ had a target rate of 33%. What can I say, “Haters gonna hate”.Robert Woods will unfortunately not be in the lineup after suffering a torn ACL in practice. For more on that, check out Jagger May’s Rapid Reaction to the Woods injury. OBJ and Stafford have plenty of time to build a positive rapport before the fantasy playoffs. Expect a boost in production from both players as the Rams acclimate to life without Bobby Trees.
Cam Newton Has QB1 Upside ROS
In-Season Splits
3 CMP/4 ATT/8 YDS/1 TD/0 INT – 3 RSH/14 YDS 1 TD
FACT
Cam’s Back! He made sure to let the entire world know about it after housing his first touch in his return with the Panthers. Joe Memmolo Jr. covered Cam Newton’s Homecoming for DFF immediately following the singing. There is no denying that Newton’s former MVP days are behind him, but his stand-alone rushing upside gives him a clear path to low-end QB1 production on a week-to-week basis. Just look at what Sam Darnold was doing to NFL defenses through the first four weeks of 2021. From Weeks 1-4, Sam Darnold ranked QB5 overall. Joe Brady’s offense is built for a dual-threat quarterback that can read spread-action RPO schemes. Once Newton gets adjusted to his new(old) team and is named the starter, he could quickly produce the same numbers as Darnold at the beginning of the season.
Mac Jones Is An Elite Quarterback
In-Season Splits
223 CMP/323 ATT/2333 YDS/13 TD/7 INT – 19 RSH/59 YDS/0 TD
CAP
Allow me to begin with a disclaimer: I believe Mac Jones is a fine NFL quarterback and is having a promising rookie season. Now that the entire northeastern seaboard has unclenched their fists, Mac Jones is far from elite. Jones’ win-loss record is being mistaken for top-tier talent. The rookie quarterback has impressed from an accuracy standpoint and is performing better than any other quarterback in the draft. However, Jones’ accuracy ratings are inflated by his refusal to throw the ball deep, reflected by his 22nd ranked aDOT. Jones’ throws are not of high value for fantasy purposes. He averages 0.42 FPTS per drop back with a True Throw Value (TTV) rating of 0.451 on BRoto Fantasy Football.
TTV can be understood as adjusted fantasy points per attempt, meaning even though Jones is completing a high percentage of his passes, the value of those completions is deficient. Take his “dominant” Week 10 victory over the Browns as an example. Jones completed 82.6% of his passes, throwing for three touchdowns. He scored just 19.9 FPTS, equating to QB11 in PPG this season. Jones’ peak is barely a low-end QB1.
Dan Arnold Will Finish As A Top 12 TE ROS
In-Season Splits
34 REC/399 YDS/0 TD
FACT
I’ve gone ad nauseam on my love for Dan Arnold as a Deep Sleeper for BRoto Fantasy Football and a personal stash in Dynasty. Arnold has all of the athletic peripherals to be an elite deep threat in the NFL. Now with the Jaguars, Arnold is finally being afforded the opportunity to prove his talent. Arnold has played in six games for the Jaguars this season. Excluding his first game on a shortened week, Arnold ranks first on the team in targets (37), receptions (25), and receiving yards (286).
Arnold is essentially the Jaguars WR1 alongside the multi-faceted journeyman Jamal Agnew. Trevor Lawrence may be struggling to find production in his debut campaign, but Arnold has become a security blanket for the young signal-caller. Arnold ranks top 12 in every conceivable usage and efficiency stat on PlayerProfiler. The one area Arnold has been lacking is touchdown production, yet he continues to reach TE1 numbers. Arnold has ranked in the top 12 tight ends three of the last five weeks. Expect Arnold to continue his impressive late-career breakout.
Elijah Mitchell Will Lose His Role To Jeff Wilson
In-Season Splits
116 RSH/550 YDS/3 TD – 9 REC/9 TGT/73 YDS/0 TD
CAP
I would be lying to you if I pretended to know how Kyle Shanahan will treat his backfield on any given week. However, I am willing to double down on my previous edition of Fantasy Fact or Cap and say Elijah Mitchell is the most talented running back on the 49ers’ roster. The return of veteran running back and infamous late-season producer, Jeff Wilson, brings Mitchell’s usage into question. In Wilson’s first game back from injured reserve, Mitchell rushed for a career-high 27 attempts. Question answered.
Unfortunately, Mitchell is reportedly receiving a procedure this week to repair a broken bone in his finger but could still be available for Week 11. Wilson may receive an increase in work in the time it takes for Mitchell to recover. If Mitchell is in the lineup, you can anticipate him having a featured role regardless of who is behind him on the depth chart.
Trey Lance Will Be A Late Contributor This Season
In-Season Splits
25 CMP/48 ATT/354 YDS/3 TD/1 INT – 27 RSH/133 YDS/1 TD
FACT
This truly comes down to when Kyle Shanahan is willing to pull the trigger and hand the keys over to Trey Lance as the starter. I believe it to be a matter of when and not if. Lance possesses immense upside as a starter due to his sensational rushing pedigree and athleticism. In Lance’s one start this season, he had 16 rushing attempts for 89 yards. He will admittedly have to overcome a steep learning curve as a pocket passer but could be a league-winning asset in the fantasy playoffs. Lance and the 49ers finish out the season with three favourable matchups for the rookie quarterback.
The 49ers face the Falcons in Week 15, the Titans in Week 16, and the Texans in Week 17. Those three teams combined to allow for 20.93 PPG on average to opposing quarterbacks, setting Lance up for a stunning finish to his rookie season.
Mason Rudolph > Ben Roethlisberger
In-Season Splits
30 CMP/50 ATT/242 YDS/1 INT/1 TD – 4 ATT/36 YDS/0 TD
CAP
First of all, I don’t think there is much difference in performance with either quarterback. At this point in his career, Ben Roethlisberger is essentially a JUGS machine with faulty electrical wiring. For my fantasy rosters and the Steelers’ overall production, Roethlisberger is still a more capable option than Mason Rudolph. Rudolph needed an extra quarter of play to achieve a minimal 15.28 FPTS against the Lions.
I poked fun at ‘Big’ Ben’s declining arm strength in the first-ever edition of Fantasy Fact or Cap. Roethlisberger’s 6.9-yard aDOT ranks 32nd amongst qualifying quarterbacks in 2021. In Rudolph’s Week 10 tie against the Lions, he averaged an aDOt of 6.5 yards on 50 attempts. The state of the franchise may look ugly with Roethlisberger at the helm. Unfortunately for Steelers fans, ugly is a significant improvement from what we saw from Rudolph in Week 10.
AJ Dillon Has RB1 Value With Aaron Jones Injured
In-Season Splits
97RSH/421 YDS/2 TD – 16 REC/18 TGT/196 YDS/1 TD
FACT
AJ Dillon had stand-alone value well before Aaron Jones went down with an unfortunate injury against the Seahawks. Jones is expected to miss at least one game with an MCL sprain, with the potential to be limited upon returning. Dillon rushed for 66 yards, and two touchdowns in the Packers win, adding two receptions for 62 yards. The second-year back is in a prime position to take a three-down role as the interim workhorse for the Packers. Dillon can produce RB1 numbers in Jones’ stead and should be valued as a top 12 option in season-long formats as long as he is the starting back.
Bryan Edwards Is The Raiders WR1
In-Season Splits
21 REC/434 YDS/2 TD/39 TGT
CAP
The hype behind Bryan Edwards has always been baseless and unsolicited. First, in the preseason as a rookie, despite his lack of consistent production at the collegiate level. Then as in preseason as a sophomore, despite his lack of any production at the pro level. Now, after the depth chart has cleared to leave Edwards as the lone outside receiver, the hype continues despite Edwards being out-targeted and out-played by Hunter Renfrow.
Edwards Ranks 80th in 2021 with a starving target share of 11.8%. He is being targeted on just 13.5% of routes, ranked 97th. I don’t know about you, but I would at least like my WR1 to be a consistent part of the offensive game plan. As for Hunter Renfrow, he ranks 30th with a 21.4% target share and a target rate of 27.2%. If you want to roster a receiver on the Raiders offense, Renfrow should be your primary target, considering Edwards is barely targeted at all.
Christian McCaffrey Will Finish RB1 in PPG
In-Season Splits
79 RSH/348 YDS/1 TD – 30 REC/32 TGT/293 YDS/0 TD
FACT
When people refer to cheat-code running backs in fantasy football, they refer to a simple three-letter equation: CMC. Christian McCaffrey provides a near-unfair advantage for managers in PPR formats. McCaffrey’s 19.8% target share ranks second amongst running backs in 2021. His 93.8% catch rate and 4.35 yards per route run rank first in the NFL. McCaffrey has finished above RB5 in three of his four starts this season. He currently sits as the RB6 in PPG but could claim that top spot with his current production in the passing game and guaranteed usage.
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
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You can read the previous articles in this series here: Fantasy Fact or Cap Vol. 1, Fantasy Fact or Cap Vol. 2
