Week 1 has finally arrived. You’ve waited months for this moment, and now it’s time to set your lineup and get the fantasy season started with a 1 in the win column. Don’t worry, I’ve got you covered with “Paul’s Picks.” Each and every week, I’ll be bringing you names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or fall flat.

So, without further ado, let’s get into my picks for Week 1.

Starts – Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts, Eagles @ Falcons

Jalen Hurts was a value in drafts all off-season, and I think some people will be kicking themselves for passing on him after Week 1. For what feels like the tenth season in a row, the Falcons’ defense looks terrible on paper, and the Eagles’ defense doesn’t look much better. Don’t be surprised when Hurts posts high-end QB1 numbers in a Week 1 shootout.

 Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars @ Texans

After an uninspiring pre-season, you might not be eager to start any Jaguars in Week 1. And honestly, I would agree with you if they weren’t up against an even more uninspiring opponent. The Houston Texans’ defense is devoid of talent at every level. If Lawrence actually has time to throw, we could see 300+ yards and multiple TD passes from the rookie in his first NFL start.

Starts – Running Backs

Gus Edwards, Ravens @ Raiders

If you drafted your team a few weeks ago, when Gus Edwards was consistently falling into the 10th and 11th round, you may have a surplus of RB talent. However, with J.K. Dobbins and, more recently, Justice Hill out for the season, you should find a way to get Gus into your lineup. He’s in line for a ton of work in what should be a positive game script against a weak run defense. 

Chase Edmonds, Cardinals @ Titans

No, I am not worried about James Conner. Chase Edmonds is the starter in Arizona, and he’s the better back. Among all RBs, Edmonds ranked 7th in targets, 7th in receptions, and 6th in receiving yards in 2020. He will retain that role this season while taking on more carries. Even if Conner gets all of the goal line carries, Edmonds is an easy flex play in this favorable matchup and potential shootout. 

Raheem Mostert, 49ers @ Lions

Trey Sermon might be the new hotness in San Francisco, but Raheem Mostert is the team’s starting running back until further notice. Even if Sermon gets half the touches, Mostert is efficient enough to provide flex value against one of the league’s worst run defenses. Don’t overthink this one. 

Starts – Wide Receivers

Antonio Brown, Buccaneers vs. Cowboys

After joining the team in Week 9 of 2020, Antonio Brown actually led the Buccaneers in receptions. That total is skewed a bit by a big Week 17 performance, but the fact remains: AB is a big part of this offense. The Cowboys don’t have much at corner behind Trevon Diggs, so Brown should have a soft matchup in this game, which could easily turn into a shootout.  

Laviska Shenault, Jaguars @ Texans

Against the Texans, you can feel comfortable playing any of the Jaguars’ top-three receivers. However, I chose to feature Laviska Shenault here because DJ Chark and Marvin Jones are coming off injuries. We know the team will manufacture touches for him on screens and short routes, but if those two are a little slow to reacclimate to the offense, Shenault could be in for a big performance.

Jerry Jeudy, Broncos @ Giants

After a solid rookie campaign, Jerry Jeudy has the chance to truly break out in 2021. Teddy Bridgewater, while unexciting, should bring some consistency to this offense, and I expect he’ll favor Jeudy’s ability to separate over Courtland Sutton’s big-bodied, contested-catch style of play. With James Bradberry likely to shadow Sutton, Jeudy is set up for success in Week 1. 

Starts – Tight Ends

Logan Thomas, Washington vs. Chargers

Beyond the top few options, the tight end position is just one giant logjam. There isn’t much to separate one player from the next, and a TD can be the difference between TE7 and TE17. However, with Curtis Samuel potentially out for Week 1, Logan Thomas should have one of the highest target floors among TEs not named Kelce or Waller. 

Sits – Quarterbacks

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Washington vs. Chargers

With so many weapons at his disposal, Ryan Fitzpatrick is absolutely going to have some big games this season. I’m just not expecting to see fireworks in Week 1. Fitzpatrick might need some time to truly gel with Terry McLaurin and the rest of the offense. Plus, with strong defenses on both sides, there could be fewer points in this one than many expect. 

Daniel Jones, Giants vs. Broncos

I like Daniel Jones as a very late-round QB this season, but I’m not willing to trust him in Week 1. If Kenny Golladay and Saquon Barkley are able to suit up, they’ll likely be limited. Evan Engram has already been ruled out. You can find a better Week 1 option than Daniel Jones facing one of the league’s strongest defenses with a depleted arsenal. 

Sits – Running Backs

Zack Moss, Bills vs. Steelers

Generally speaking, I like Zack Moss this season. He plays in a great offense, and I believe that he will take over as the lead back sooner than later. But with his role currently up in the air, I’m not eager to play him against a tough Steelers defense in Week 1. 

Josh Jacobs, Raiders vs. Ravens

I really couldn’t dream up a worse scenario for Josh Jacobs in Week 1. He’ll struggle to get much going against the Ravens, who have had one of the league’s best run defenses in recent seasons. Then, when the Raiders are trailing in the second half, he’ll cede a ton of work to Kenyan Drake, who projects as the team’s primary receiving back. Look for a better option.

Sits – Wide Receivers

Darnell Mooney, Bears @ Rams

After an impressive rookie season, many are expecting Darnell Mooney to truly break out in 2021. However, I have to temper your expectations in Week 1. Even if Mooney can hold his own against this fearsome Rams secondary, he still needs a quarterback that can get him the ball. For some reason, I don’t have a ton of faith in Andy Dalton here. 

Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins @ Patriots

With Will Fuller suspended for Week 1, you might be eager to play Jaylen Waddle. The speedy rookie receiver will certainly be on the field a lot, but he could struggle against this Patriots secondary. I’m also nervous about Tua Tagovailoa and his 9 career starts playing in Foxborough for the first time. 

Sits – Tight Ends

Cole Kmet, Bears @ Rams

I really don’t want anything to do with the Bears in Week 1. With Andy Dalton at QB, this offense is going to be outmatched against one of the league’s best defenses. Plus, Jimmy Graham is going to remain involved. Cole Kmet has plenty of potential this season, but I’d prefer to see it before I believe it. 

Adam Trautman, Saints vs. Packers

I was riding the Adam Trautman hype train all offseason, but I’m pumping the brakes after what I saw this preseason. Not only did Trautman suffer an injury that has kept him out of practice leading up to the season, but he was also used as a blocker more than expected. Meanwhile, Juwan Johnson was used more in the Jared Cook role from seasons past. I still believe in Trautman’s skillset, but he’s far too risky to trust in Week 1.

Thanks for reading this article! Look me up on Twitter at @fantasyfreezer if you’d like to hear more from me. I love answering fantasy questions, discussing trades, and engaging in friendly debates, so be sure to drop in and say hello.