Greetings #DFFArmy, and welcome. My name’s Matt Ward, or as many of you know me from social media, Psych Ward. I’ll be filling in for Paul Patterson in this week’s edition of “Psych’s Picks.” Every week, Paul lists his top starts and sits with the keys to success for each player. I want to add: I will personally be favouring and fading these players in my own matchups.

Now, with the introduction formalities out of the way, let’s dive into the players I believe will make or break your fantasy lineups in Week 10.

Starts – Quarterbacks

Derek Carr, Raiders vs Chiefs

Carr is coming off an emotionally-charged loss to the Giants in Week 9 that saw the Raiders quarterback commit three turnovers. He has an opportunity to bounce back against the swiss-cheese secondary of the Chiefs in Week 10. The Chiefs are allowing 21.8 FPTS to quarterbacks in 2021. Carr is averaging 320.6 passing yards this season, but with minimal touchdown production. The Chiefs are desperate to right the ship of their sinking season. I expect an uptick in scoring from both teams in Week 10, with Carr being a sneaky benefactor.

Matt Ryan, Falcons at Cowboys

If Teddy Bridgewater can put up 20+ FPTS against the Cowboys’ defense, Matt Ryan should have no concerns. The Cowboys defense has been a superb ball-hawking unit this season but has struggled to mitigate big plays. Ryan has had his share of down performances, but after a 343 yard, three-touchdown, overtime win against the Saints, the 36-year old quarterback looks to be in peak form. The Cowboys defense offers a soft matchup, allowing 10.2% over the expected average FPTS to quarterbacks 2021, per BRoto Fantasy Football.

Honorable Mention: Carson Wentz, Colts vs Jaguars

Starts – Running Backs

Elijah Mitchell, 49ers vs Rams

The hottest waiver wire pickup of 2021, Mitchell has been a rock-solid contributor for fantasy managers. The 49ers rookie has rushed for over 100 yards in three of his six games this season and is averaging 13.5 PPG. The Rams defense is conceding 20.9 PPG to running backs in 2021. Mitchell is a safe RB2 play with legitimate RB1 upside this week.

Javonte Williams, Broncos vs Eagles

The future has arrived. Javonte Williams smashed through the Cowboys defense for 111 yards in Week 9, eclipsing the century mark for the first time in his young career. A defender’s worst nightmare, Williams’ 35 forced missed tackles are tied with Nick Chubb for first in the NFL. What makes Williams’ astounding missed tackle numbers even more impressive is the fact that he’s done it on only 95 carries, leading the league in forced missed tackle rate at 37%, according to PFF. Defenders are merely obstacles in Williams’ path to production. The Eagles defense does not pose much of an obstacle for Williams in Week 10. They are allowing 24.5 PPG to the running back position in 2021, 13.0% over the expected average to their opponent. Melvin Gordon is an admitted threat to Williams’ touchdown volume, but I favor the rookie in this matchup.

D’Ernest Johnson, Browns at Patriots

The Browns’ offensive success is predicated on one facet: running the damn ball. Nick Chubb has been placed on the Covid-19 reserve list this week but can still gain clearance to play before Sunday. If Chubb is ruled out, D’Ernest Johnson becomes a no-brainer/must-start running back against the Patriots in Week 10.

Honorable Mention: Josh Jacobs, Raiders vs Chiefs

Starts – Wide Receivers

Hunter Renfrow, Raiders Vs Chiefs

Renfrow has been catapulted into an increased role after the unfortunate and devastating Henry Ruggs situation. As the lone reliable wide receiver, Renfrow should be targeted heavily in Week 10 and beyond. Renfrow is criminally underrated as a route runner. He averages 2.37 yards of separation per target, ranked 4th in 2021. Renfrow should be afforded plenty of opportunities in this contest to improve on the best season of his career.

Rashod Bateman, Ravens at Dolphins

After spending the first five weeks of 2021 on the PUP list, rookie wide receiver Rashod Bateman is on everyone’s fantasy radar. In three games this season, Bateman has 12 receptions on 20 targets for 161 yards. He has yet to catch a touchdown as a pro, a streak I expect to be broken in Week 10. The Dolphins rank dead last in points allowed over average to wide receivers at 30.6%. They are allowing 37.1 FPTS to opposing wideouts in 2021 and 280.9 passing yards per game. Bateman is in a premium spot to outplay projections and house his first NFL touchdown.

Honorable Mention: DeVonta Smith, Eagles at Broncos

Starts – Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert, Eagles at Broncos

Goedert is ranked outside of the top 15 tight ends in projected PPR points in Week 10. I won’t stand for this level of disrespect and plan on rebelling by calling Goedert a top ten option against the Broncos. I wrote about Goedert for BRoto Fantasy Football as my number one tight end to pursue before fantasy trade deadlines. Allow me to touch on a few of the hot notes as to why. Goedert’s aDOT ranks 6th amongst tight ends in 2021 at 9.4 yards. He has received 17.4% of the Eagles’ total air yards on the season, ranked 10th overall. Efficiency is Goedert’s M.O. He ranks second in yards per reception (14.9), third in yards per target (11.5), and third in yards per route run (2.58). As the Eagles’ most reliable and consistent pass-catcher, I’m willing to bet on a plus performance from Goedert in Week 10.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Conklin, Vikings at Chargers

Sits – Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield, Browns at Patriots

Talking heads raved about Baker Mayfield’s performance against the Bengals. After releasing Odell Beckham Jr., Mayfield and company got a much-needed win against their division rivals in Week 9. Do not let the sweet taste of victory blind you from the fact that Mayfield is not a reliable fantasy quarterback. He recorded just 16.7 FPTS in a favorable matchup against the Bengals. The Patriots present a more difficult matchup for Mayfield in Week 10, allowing just 16.2 FPTS to quarterbacks in 2021. Mayfield is a fringe QB2 at best and should be left out of your lineups.

Honorable Mention: Jacoby Brissett/Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins vs Baltimore

Sits – Running Backs

Jordan Howard, Eagles at Broncos

Recency bias will have managers rushing to the waiver wires to add Jordan Howard to their rosters. The veteran plodder has emerged after Miles Sanders‘ placement on injured reserve. In the past two contests, Howard has carried the ball 29 times for 128 yards and three scores. His unsustainable production should come to a halting end against the Broncos. The Broncos are allowing 16.7% below the league average to running backs this season. Howard’s lack of receiving makes for a volatile flex option.

Jeremy McNichols/Adrian Peterson, Titans vs Saints

The loss of Derrick Henry has completely changed the philosophy of the Titans offense. The Titans immediately signed and activated 36-year old future hall of fame running back Adrian Peterson to the roster. Pass-catching specialist Jeremy McNichols continues to be relegated to third-down work as a change-of-pace option. The Saints are ranked first in rush defense in 2021, allowing a stifling 73.8 yards per game and should have no issues shutting down the Titans run game.

Honorable Mention: Mike Davis, Falcons at Cowboys

Sits – Wide Receivers

D.J. Moore, Panthers at Cardinals

D.J. Moore and the Panthers’ passing attack have become a classic case of “I need to see it to believe it.” P.J. Walker is expected to start this week after Sam Darnold was reported to have suffered an “incomplete” scapula fracture. Unfortunate news for Darnold, but it’s not like he was doing much to help the Panthers receivers as it was. Moore is averaging a discouraging 9.9 PPG during his past five contests. He’s a hard name to justify benching, but if you have a capable option, do not hesitate to slot them in above Moore.

Jarvis Landry, Browns at Patriots

Landry has simply not been producing at a level where you can justify starting him confidently. Landry is projected to finish as a top 32 WR this week. He has not earned the volume or output to justify a mid-range WR3 ranking. The departure of OBJ left a glaring hole in name only. Donovan Peoples-Jones has become Mayfield’s new favourite target, catching all three of the quarterbacks’ passing touchdowns, dating back to Week 6. Landry is still the secondary receiver on a low-volume passing offense. I’m fading Landry in tandem with Mayfield in Week 10.

Honorable Mention: Jakobi Meyers, Patriots vs Browns

(I’m not starting Meyers until he scores a touchdown, meaning I may never start Meyers again)

Sits – Tight Ends

Jared Cook, Chargers vs Vikings

Jared Cook is a flat-track bully, only capable of dominating inferior matchups. Cook has performed well enough to hover around the TE1 tier all season but has floundered in the face of challenging defensive assignments. In Week 10, against the Vikings, Cook will find himself against one of the best defenses in the NFL at locking up the tight end position. The Vikings allow just 6.8 PPG to opposing tight ends this season. My expectations for Cook in this contest are limited, much like his production.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

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You can read the previous articles in this series here:  Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7, Week 8, Week 9