Dynasty Analysis
I do not like the Falcons’ offense for fantasy, they will play slow, they will not score many touchdowns, and they will not pass the ball much. The only asset worth spending a high pick on is Kyle Pitts. I could see myself owning some Patterson, Allgeier, and Mariota though as I think they will be fairly cheap options. I do think London may be over-drafted though, given the recent rookie WR production and not thinking about how inept this offense may be. I have Mariota as a mid to high QB2, Patterson as a high RB3, Allgeier as a low RB4, London as a mid WR3, Edwards and Olamide are not on my board, and Pitts as a mid to high TE1. Hopefully, this offense is good and passes a lot in 2022 but I would not bet on it.
With the NFL Draft in the rear-view mirror and Rookie minicamps underway, Redraft season is soon approaching. While the average draft position of many players will fluctuate as the summer rolls along, here are two names I’m currently targeting in Redraft leagues.
Do you know the last time a Patriot running back led the team in rushing for more than two seasons in a row? Corey Dillon accomplished that feat when he led the team in 2004, 2005, and 2006. Although Harris has yet to top 1,000 yards rushing in a season as a pro, he has led the team in rushing two seasons in a row now. History leans that his streak may end this season, as only three backs (Dillon, Antowain Smith, and Curtis Martin) have led the team in rushing in three consecutive seasons since 1991. Of course, you can’t base everything on history, especially in today’s game. But here’s what we know: the Patriots are quick to move off of backs, they hardly extend any of them, and they typically draft one (or two) each year.
For the Cardinals I have their QB, Kyler Murray Projected to be an elite fantasy asset, as he normally is. 4,400 yards, 36 total TDs, and 500 rush yards set him up to drop 24.6 fantasy points per game and help dominate your opponents. I have Conner taking a large majority of the carries and earning 280 total touches. The backs behind him are not proven NFL players so I have them getting about 80 carries each which left a ton for Conner. Keaontay Ingram also is not much of a pass catcher so I could see Conner getting some decent work there but I would not be surprised if he lost some of this to Rondale Moore. Let’s not forget, that DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for six games by the NFL. So while his counting stats may look a little low, his PPG numbers are still at a low WR1 level. He could be a value in redraft leagues if he slips too far.
For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a single WR1 rating. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics.
For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a single WR1 rating. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics.
For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a single WR1 rating. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics.
Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.
Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (off-season edition). What a time of the year. The NFL Draft is officially in the books. Undrafted free agents are getting signed like crazy. And we are approaching the slow season, as teams look to add veteran free agents in this next wave of free agency. As always, we will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the Carolina Panthers.
On Thursday, April 28th, at approximately 10:00 PM ET, A.J. Brown was traded from the Tennessee Titans to the Philadelphia Eagles for the 18th overall pick and a third-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. After this blockbuster deal, we need to recalibrate our expectations for every offensive player in Philadelphia and Tennessee. Who benefits the most, and whose stock is moving in the wrong direction?
Buffalo welcomes Wydermyer to a tight end room that features up-and-coming star Dawson Knox and a former first-round pick in O.J. Howard. Wydermyer should battle for the TE3 spot against Tommy Sweeney and Quinton Morris, but his fantasy outlook isn’t bright. Buffalo has a plethora of great pass-catchers on their team, and it’s going to be nearly impossible for Wydnermyer to make an impact early on in his career. He may not even be worth a spot on your taxi squad unless he finds himself playing for someone else when the season starts.
While Snoop Conner served as the Rebel’s short-yardage/goal-line rusher, Ealy was used as the “do it all” type of back. He posted consistent numbers, as he topped 700 yards rushing in all three seasons at Ole Miss. On top of scoring 20 rushing touchdowns during his three-year career, Ealy also hauled in four receiving touchdowns and two kick return scores. During his collegiate career, he also hauled in a combined 67 receptions for 545 yards, indicating that he can be a viable third-down option in the NFL.
A talented back who boasts NFL-ready size, strength, and speed, Jerome Ford landed in a decent spot with Cleveland. Though his fifth-round draft capital is lower than desired, he will have an opportunity to learn behind a talented stable of RBs in Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and D’Ernest Johnson. Ford does have more than adequate hands, so he could potentially be used in a change of pace, two-minute, or third down role this season if there is an injury or two ahead of him. He will most likely never serve as a lead back in the NFL, but pass-catching backs who garner 10-15 touches a game (which could be in his future as early as 2023) carry fantasy value. Expect to see him selected in the middle of the third round of your dynasty rookie drafts.
Julius came to Sacred Heart as a surprisingly under-recruited freshman despite being an All-Metro First Teamer in Baltimore. He immediately found a home in the backfield and started producing like a seasoned veteran helping lead the Pioneers to Northeast Conference titles in 2018, 2020, and 2021. While there he was a perennial All-American every year since 2019, finishing third in the Walter Payton Award, and was the Rookie of the Year for the NEC in 2018. This guy was a diamond in the rough for the Pioneers and has helped vault them into FCS-postseason playoff contention every year.
Teague has fought hard throughout his career. Never pegged as someone who would excel at the next level, he proved the doubters wrong during his time at Ohio State. Served as a backup to J.K. Dobbins during the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Accumulated 895 combined yards on the ground and five touchdowns, during the two seasons, on 152 attempts. Suffered a torn Achilles tendon, but managed to play in seven games in 2020. On 104 attempts, Teague produced 514 yards and eight touchdowns, serving as Trey Sermon’s backup but the primary short-yardage back for the Buckeyes. He put together one final injury-riddled season, where he played in just seven games once again. He only saw 67 attempts in 2021, but rushed for 5.3 yards per attempt and produced 355 yards on the ground and four touchdowns.
Malik Willis’ draft week freefall finally ended in the third round. By that time, it was too late. Willis’ drastic drop down draft boards caused an aftershock throughout the dynasty community, dropping the value of all rookie picks in Superflex leagues save for the 1.01. Managers reacted by reshaping rookie ADP overnight, forcing nearly every skill position player into first-round value.
After going undrafted and without a deal after the first couple of days during the undrafted free agency period, Ross gets a chance with a Kansas City team that’s overloaded at wide receiver. Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore are locks to make the team. Ross will battle with Josh Gordon and others, including his former teammate Cornell Powell for a roster spot this offseason.
As a prospect, Corral is decisive and operates with an excellent release to challenge tight window throws, and possesses the touch to drop in challenging throws in the short to intermediate. His biggest knock as a passer is on his deep ball, which sometimes hits brilliantly but can be inconsistent. He creates run-after-catch opportunities with his pinpoint short-to-intermediate accuracy. Corral is an above-average runner but is currently too cavalier, and he is not built to take the pounding at the next level. Durability and concerns about off-the-field reliability forced his slide in the draft. The Panthers are about the best possible landing spot for Corral, as they have struggled to get consistent play from Sam Darnold. Additionally, Matt Rhule is known as a “players’ coach” who can relate and help get the most out of Corral, and hopefully, keep him on track. The draft capital will force Corral down into the mid-second round of dynasty rookie drafts.
Brian Robinson Jr. comes to the NFL as a highly-ranked national recruit out of high school and with relatively low tread on the tire, with only one season of extreme usage and production. The major knock on him is that he is a 23-year-old rookie. As a player, what you see is what you get: he is an imposing physical presence at 6’2” and 225 lbs. who will most likely add even more weight and strength at the NFL level. He is limited laterally, but is an effective interior runner and offers added bonus as a competent receiver. In Washington, he will most likely have a short-yardage and goal-line role behind stand-out Antonio Gibson. Gibson has shown he is capable of being an every-down back but battled usage injuries throughout his young career. Robinson Jr. looks to be a late-second to early-third round pick in dynasty rookie drafts.
Greg Dulcich surprisingly saw a minor but noticeable boost to his market value after the 2022 NFL Draft. Dulcich checks all the boxes of an NFL tight end but lacked primary production at UCLA to back up his stunning size and athleticism. Despite already having Albert Okweugbunam on the roster, the Broncos elected to select Dulcich in the middle of the third round.
Kevin Austin Jr. had a quiet collegiate career before the 2021 season. He missed time with a broken foot and a team suspension that was due to violating team rules. The violations were never disclosed. He then broke out during the 2021 season, as he hauled in 48 receptions for 888 yards and seven touchdowns, leading the Fighting Irish in nearly every receiving category.
Dallas is always looking to upgrade their wide receiver position. They made that clear by drafting Jalen Tolbert 88th overall. They quickly signed Fryfogle once the draft was complete, and the two join a talented wide receiver room that already rosters CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, James Washington, Noah Brown, and Simi Fehoko. Fryfogle will have a tough time making the 53-man roster, but he’s in line to battle for the WR5/6 spot with Brown, Fehoko, and others. He’s worth stashing on your taxi squads as long as we hear positive noise surrounding his performance at camp. For now, he’s not worth drafting in any league format, but he landed at a great location.
Scouts praise Brooks’ love for the game. In all three seasons playing for the Sooners, he topped 1,000 yards rushing every year. In his 37 games played at the collegiate level, Brooks produced 3,320 rushing yards, which lands him ninth all-time in Oklahoma football history. He ended his impressive career as the Alamo Bowl Offensive MVP after scampering for 142 yards and three touchdowns on just 14 attempts.
For each selection, I provided four options for the crowd to choose from. The winner of that pick was then taken off for the next poll. If a player received too few votes he was also relegated from the next poll in favor of another option. We got solid participation with the first poll receiving over 600 votes at the time this was authored. This method created a pretty strong correlation of what a rookie draft might look like for your Superflex dynasty league.
Indianapolis welcomes Borghi to a running back room that already includes Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, and Deon Jackson. Borghi should get a chance at competing for the RB3 spot with Jackson, but let’s be honest here, he won’t see the field much unless injuries to others give him an opportunity. He’s a strong runner, who could find himself with a short-yardage role, but Taylor is possibly the best back in the league at this point. He’s also a great pass-catcher out o the backfield, but even Hines may be one of the best at that feat as well. Don’t bother drafting Borghi in any league formats, but he’s worth a gamble on your taxi squad if you truly believe in him.