After being injured during the preseason of his rookie season and sitting out his entire first year, Travis Etienne (RB – JAX) had a troubled beginning to his sophomore season. After beginning the season losing touches to third-year veteran James Robinson (RB – NYJ), he finally broke out in Game 5 and following that he posted stellar rushing performances, having a notable 25-yard + rush in seemingly every game. Ending his season as RB17 and having 12 ppg vaulted his value to RB five on KTC, placing him just between Christian McCaffrey (RB – SFO) and Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG) in the RB category, and Kyler Murray (QB – ARZ) and Chris Olave (WR – NO) overall.
The Background
Coming out of college, Etienne was a highly touted prospect selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, selected just after Najee Harris (RB – PIT) to be the RB2 of the class. You can read his full prospect profile here, but most analysts had him as a pass-catching weapon, with some comping him to Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) in terms of his ceiling. However, Etienne in his “rookie” season failed to live up to the pass-catching hype, but his value seems to disagree.
While I acknowledge his ability as a rusher, I’m not sold on his receiving upside quite yet. Posting a 7.9% target share has him ranked #34 in terms of RB target share, and his targets per game of 2.6 has him ranked #22 in terms of RB targets. These numbers are simply not good, and I believe that the comp for Etienne should be adjusted closer to a Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN) ceiling from a pass-catching perspective. Does this mean I think that Etienne is a bad running back? Absolutely not, however, I think that if you have the option to make a lateral move by selling Etienne, I would do that.
Some potential sell candidates (all trades Superflex):
RUNNING BACK
Etienne + late second round pick for Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
- I believe that Breece Hall is a talent worth trading up for. His pass-catching ability was shown in the few games he played his rookie season, so if you can capitalize on managers feeling skittish regarding his torn ACL, jump on a deal similar to the one above.
Etienne for D’Andre Swift (RB – DET) + mid second round pick
- D’Andre Swift still showcased his receiving ability despite losing a large % of rushing work and most goalline work to Jamaal Williams (RB – DET). Along with this, Swift was hurt this year, a fact many people overlooked. If you’d like to read more about that, click here. Chase upside in fantasy football, and Swift’s receiving upside gives him RB1 overall upside.
Etienne + third-round pick for Christian McCaffrey
- Speaking of RB one overall upside – Christian McCaffrey. I don’t think I need to speak much here, but you should attempt to pivot to a real receiving threat for pennies by capitalizing on people worrying about either a. CMC’s age or b. CMC’s injury history. If you want to be tricky in your trade offers’ try to find CMC owners who may be worried about Elijah Mitchell’s (RB – SF) return (hint: Elijah Mitchell is not a major concern to CMC’s fantasy production).
QUARTERBACK
Etienne for Dak Prescott (QB – DAL)
- With Dak Prescott losing in the divisional round coupled with his interceptions this season, the national media has disrespected Prescott heavily this season. Capitalize on this by trading for him now while he’s currently at an extremely cheap value. The upside is slightly limited for Prescott as his rushing ability seems to be sapped (you can read more about that here), but he’s still a semi-elite quarterback.
Etienne for Kyler Murray (QB – ARZ)
- Speaking of Quarterbacks who have been disrespected, Kyler Murray gets more disrespect than almost any quarterback I’ve ever seen. I won’t go into why I think that is, but you can capitalize on that coupled with his torn ACL to buy one of the most hypermobile quarterbacks in the universe for pennies.
TIGHT END
Etienne for Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)
- I believe tight end to be the most important position in fantasy football and the second most in Superflex. Kyle Pitts was cursed with Arthur Smith and Marcus Mariota (QB – ATL) this season. He posted elite target shares, route participation, YPRR, and TPRR. This isn’t a “Dynasty Outlook: Kyle Pitts” article but buy Kyle Pitts.
Etienne + mid-second round pick for Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)
- Mark Andrews had a lot to deal with this season as he and his quarterback Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL) were both injured at points this season. I believe him to be the second or third-best tight end in the league, and at the age of 27, he’s one of the youngest elite options.
The Takeaway
There are more trade scenarios, but these are a few that make sense according to KeepTradeCut’s value tracker. One move I advise against making is trading Etienne for a WR, as I strongly believe that WR is the most replaceable production in all of fantasy football, so we shouldn’t be trading pieces that could give us elite WoRP for pieces that will only give us middling WoRP.
Finally, make trades depending on your league settings. An RB in a league that starts two RBs is much more valuable than an RB in a league that only starts 1 RB. A potentially winning trade in one league could be a massive mistake in another.
I believe Travis Etienne is a talented football player, but I don’t quite yet believe his college-receiving production will be matched in the NFL. I also don’t believe that fantasy gamers have wised up to this fact yet, and are letting his rushing production mask his lack of receiving production. Capitalize on this fact and trade him before your league-mates realize this. I believe that any elite or fringe elite quarterback you can get for him is worth it in the long run.
Receiving production matters significantly more than rushing production in PPR fantasy football. If this were not the case, Derrick Henry (RB – TEN) and Nick Chubb (RB – CLE) would be RB1 and RB2 year in and year out. The only concern I have regarding not trading Travis Etienne would be the possibility that Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson begins to utilize him more in the passing game this upcoming season, but I prefer to listen to the analytics instead of guessing what decisions head coaches may or may not make in the future. Chasing guesswork instead of statistics will result in more bad trades than good ones. This should be the only factor influencing you to hold Etienne if you choose to do so, as I don’t see his value falling during the off-season or the beginning of the regular season, barring injury.
VERDICT: SELL
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