The 2023 offseason promises big changes to the running back landscape in the NFL. Over the next couple weeks, I’ll go over my predictions for the running back situations of each team, as well as the corresponding fantasy implications. Check out Part 3 of this series, where I looked at the AFC West.
Arizona Cardinals
2022 Starter: James Conner
In a throwaway year for the Cardinals, Conner turned in another solid fantasy season, averaging 15.4 PPR points per game (RB10) and finishing as the RB19 in total points scored despite missing 4 games. Even being paired with a miserably bad passing offense (bottom 5 in EPA/play), Conner was still an effective fantasy asset, finding the end zone 8 times, notching his 2nd most receptions in a year (46), and averaging a respectable, albeit not amazing 4.3 yards per carry.
Conner certainly wasn’t a world-beater for Arizona this year but he is far from the biggest hole on this Cardinals roster. Additionally, the Cardinals do not have an out until after the upcoming 2023 season, with almost 10 million in dead cap if they cut Conner this spring. However, that dead cap hit goes down to just 2 million after next season, when Conner will be turning the corner on 29 years old. He’s a decent candidate to be released if his effectiveness starts to decline, which would save the team around 5 million in cap space. Conner is a competent RB2/FLEX for next season, but I don’t expect his fantasy relevance to last very long past the 2023 campaign. It’s more than possible that Conner looks to have lost a step as early as week 1 of 2023. He’ll likely devolve into a Mark Ingram/Latavius Murray-esque asset, serving as a rotational backup with some touchdown upside.
The Cardinals of today are not particularly deep at running back, with 6th-round rookie Keaontay Ingram splitting backup duties alongside Corey Clement. As such, the Cardinals are solid candidates to spend a day 3 pick on another depth piece behind Conner. The Cardinals current have a well below-average defense and offensive line, and DeAndre Hopkins is likely on the move this offseason. As a result, the Cardinals will likely need to focus their resources on bolstering more valuable areas of their roster. Monitor the Cardinals’ running back room as they search for a long-term answer, whether that be Ingram, a day 3 rookie, a 2024 rookie, or somewhere in between. Fantasy relevance is certainly at risk, as the Cardinals could turn to a true committee strategy moving forward.
Projected 2023 Starter: James Conner
Los Angeles Rams
2022 Starter: Cam Akers + Kyren Williams
And here we are. Since 2020, which feels like eons ago, I’ve been one of the strongest ride-or-die Cam Akers truthers. The strength of my mental fortitude was put to the ultimate test this past season as Cam was thrown in and out of the doghouse, and even put on the trading block. However, the prodigal son returned to what appeared to be near pre-injury form at the end of the 2022 season. What a rollercoaster this year was for the Rams’ backfield.
Unironically, Akers was very impressive to finish the season. He was the RB6 in fantasy from Week 13 to Week 18 and finished with 3 consecutive 100-yard rushing performances to cap off the season. Akers saw more involvement in the passing game, averaging around 25 receiving yards per game from Weeks 15-18.
The Rams’ current situation also bodes fairly well for Akers’ future outlook. Akers’ top competition of the past few years, Darrell Henderson Jr., was released during the season. More importantly, the Rams are a roster with a ton of holes, and many are much more pressing than their situation at running back. Akers and Kyren Williams, who provided a change-of-pace out of the backfield towards the end of the season, were leaned on fairly heavily and both produced respectably. While you can never put it past the Rams to throw draft picks at the running back position, I think Akers and Williams both have locked-in roles as the 2023 starters for the Rams. There are simply too many positions that need addressing in L.A. for the Rams to invest more picks or money in their backfield.
With Akers entering a contract year, he’s primed to produce career highs. This will be his first genuinely healthy offseason since his career-altering injury. Everything seems to be lining up for Cam to put up big numbers this year, and earn himself a respectable contract – whether that be with the Rams or somewhere else. Cam should be a serviceable RB2 this year, with (hot take) potential low-end RB1 upside. Kyren Williams will be a solid handcuff to own as well. Long-term, be wary with your valuing of Akers. He is still young, but has a less-than-ideal injury history, and a slightly insecure role. Next season may open a good window to sell your Akers shares for younger talent at the position.
Projected 2023 Starter: Cam Akers + Kyren Williams
Seattle Seahawks
2022 Starter: Kenneth Walker
The 2nd-round rookie for Seattle exceeded all expectations this season, posting a 1,000-yard rushing season on 4.6 yards per attempt to go with 9 touchdowns on the ground and finishing as the RB18 in PPR. A candidate to win 2022 offensive rookie of the year, Walker is highly regarded in the dynasty world. Currently the RB3 on KeepTradeCut, Walker is a candidate to finish as the RB1 in 2023. Everything you could want is there: elite volume in an above-average offense, loads of touchdown opportunity, receiving work, and most importantly, an elite talent toting the rock. Walker has a three-down skillset paired with elite athleticism (98th percentile 40-time and 96th percentile speed score per PlayerProfiler), which last year proved to be a lethal combo.
There are some questions for Walker, as he had a tendency to bounce runs to the outside a little too often last year. This was something he did consistently at Michigan State, where it proved effective against college-level competition, but is something he will likely need to adjust to take the next step as an elite rusher. This didn’t matter last season, as Walker led the league in 50+ yard runs, but his -76 tackles for loss yards were 2nd in the NFL (not a good thing). In the long term, Walker needs to become more consistent between the tackles to develop into a more reliable force on the ground. Regardless, Walker will remain an elite producer in fantasy, whether he begins to adjust this next season or further down the line.
Not much else needs to be said here. For depth purposes, with Rashaad Penny likely on the way elsewhere, the Seahawks will likely sign a veteran free agent to back up Walker. There is not much fantasy value to be had here other than a decent handcuff worth owning. Fire up Walker as a locked-and-loaded RB1 for years to come.
Projected 2023 Starter: Kenneth Walker
San Francisco 49ers
2022 Starter: Christian McCaffrey
The 49ers shook up the running back landscape at the trade deadline this year, moving a stable of picks for the most gifted running back in the NFL: Christian McCaffrey. CMC was nothing short of elite this year in the red and gold, finishing as the RB2 in all formats and being a league-winner for fantasy managers, averaging almost 26 fantasy points per game from weeks 13-17. McCaffrey was also one of the key players to the 49ers’ playoff run this year, which as we know ultimately fell short. But not because of any lack of McCaffrey dominance, who posted 84 yards on 15 rushes (5.6 ypc) and a touchdown in their loss to the Superbowl favorite Philadelphia Eagles. Not much more can be said to describe McCaffrey’s dominance this year, other than that there’s no reason to believe he’ll slow down anytime soon. McCaffrey is still a top 5 running back in dynasty and will remain an elite asset for years to come. Look for another RB1 season in 2023 from arguably the best running back of the generation.
Projected 2023 Starter: Christian McCaffrey
Thanks for reading! Keep an eye out for the next installment of “Predicting the 2023 RB Carousel”. Follow my Twitter @bensprinkler and take a look at some more recent articles on DFF to learn the game and dominate your leagues!
